NBA MVP Predictions & Expert Picks to Win Award in 2024-25

We are analyzing the NBA MVP opening odds at our top NBA betting sites, sharing our early predictions and expert picks. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are currently the frontrunners according to the odds.

Nikola Jokic, who has won two consecutive NBA MVP awards and three out of the last four, is unsurprisingly the favorite to win the NBA MVP award for the 2024-25 season. However, the competition is remarkably close, which may come as a surprise to some.

After making his debut in the NBA Finals, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks is now considered a top contender on our top sports betting sites, following his second place finish in the MVP race last year.

Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are closely pursued by their teams, all considered top contenders for the NBA championship according to the odds, with the defending champions, the Boston Celtics, leading the pack.

The 2024-25 NBA MVP odds have been announced, leading our NBA experts Morgan Xaviero and Richardson Lilliana to discuss their initial thoughts, early forecasts, and top picks from both the favorites and underdogs.

2024-25 NBA MVP opening odds

The odds from our top sports betting apps are current as of Tuesday, June 18th.

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NBA MVP expert picks, early predictions

What stands out to you from the NBA MVP opening odds?

Richardson Lilliana believes that the top eight players with the shortest odds for the NBA championship are not surprising, as they are all well-known brand names on successful teams. She notes that aside from Jalen Brunson, who made a strong impression during the New York Knicks’ playoff run, the MVP contenders are familiar names that even non-NBA fans are likely to recognize from social media.

Despite the expected chalky odds, I was surprised by how close Luka Doncic (+400) is to Nikola Jokic (+400). Jokic is a slight favorite at two top sportsbooks, with identical odds at three others. Doncic had an incredible season leading the NBA in points per game (33.9), but it was shocking to see him neck and neck with Jokic, especially after the recent NBA Finals.

Morgan Xaviero (SBR | Twitter/X) agrees with the initial reaction to Doncic being considered a co-favorite across the board. While it’s understandable given his two-time reigning winner status, Xaviero is tempted to bet on the player with longer odds due to Doncic’s spectacular performance throughout the 2023-24 season. This suggests that both players should have equal odds in the end.

I am most surprised by the narrow focus on the favorites in the field. The significant gap between the top eight and the rest is striking. Is this due to a lack of talent across the league as the older players retire, or are the current stars simply exceptional?

Paul: I don’t think there is a lack of talent in the league, especially when considering the success of the Celtics’ roster last season. Players like Derrick White, who wasn’t an All-Star, proved to be valuable, and rookies like Dereck Lively II exceeded expectations. I believe there is a trend of exceptional talents entering the league, possibly due to the rise of European players.

Jokic, Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are among the top European players in basketball history, with Joel Embiid possibly joining them if we include his French connection. The sport has become more international, with players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander representing Canada as a top contender in Men’s Olympic Basketball.

The NBA has expanded its reach beyond the United States, resulting in a more talented league and a more concentrated MVP race. Additionally, there is also the rising star Victor Wembanyama to watch out for.

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Which of the NBA MVP favorites would you target? Who would you fade?

Cowart believes that Luka Doncic is the front runner for the award, as he has garnered significant support from NBA media and has the numbers to back it up. Voter fatigue may be a factor but Doncic’s performance in the playoffs has solidified his position as a top contender. If the regular season had been longer, Doncic could have made a serious push for the award.

On the other hand, I wouldn’t bet on Embiid’s odds with a 65-foot pole. He would need to play that many games in the 2024-25 season to qualify for the award, something he has only done twice in his 10-year career. While these odds may seem favorable now, it’s important to remember the wise advice of a horse racing track security guard I once met: “A torn-up ticket is worthless.” (This anecdote is true, by the way.)

Paul believes that Luka Doncic is the best choice out of the top three players. Doncic is young, turning 26 in February, and is coming off a highly successful season. If both Doncic and Jokic maintain their current level of performance, Doncic is likely to win MVP this time. Paul acknowledges the idea of voter fatigue and the possibility of Jokic winning multiple MVPs by the age of 30, similar to LeBron James’ career achievements, is surprising.

I’m leaning towards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+700), possibly due to my Canadian roots. As the runner-up last season, he played a key role in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s success, leading them to the top seed in the Western Conference. If he can maintain his high level of performance, leading in points and steals per game while guiding the Thunder to another top seed in the West, I believe he has a strong chance of winning.

When deciding who to fade, it’s clear that Embiid is a top choice, but I would also include Antetokounmpo. I have doubts about Doc Rivers, and Giannis has consistently played fewer than 68 games in four of the last five seasons. The player that I find most challenging to assess is Anthony Edwards (+1500), what are your thoughts on his chances?

Cowart: When I first looked at his chances in the market, I spent a lot of time analyzing them. I believe he has the potential to become the next superstar in the NBA, but I would be surprised if that happens as early as next season. Despite the Minnesota Timberwolves almost winning the Western Conference last year and Anthony Edwards having a standout season, he only received six votes and finished seventh in the rankings.

In order to have a real chance, he would likely need to increase his scoring by 8-10 PPG, but I don’t believe the odds are worth it. I prefer to bet on Jayson Tatum (+1900) instead. He finished sixth in MVP voting last year and could use his championship momentum to have a standout season after being snubbed as the favorite for Finals MVP.

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Is there an NBA MVP long shot that you’re buying in the early market?

Paul wonders if Victor Wembanyama’s odds of +4000 will still be considered a long shot by the time the season begins, as his odds have already shortened at several top live betting sites within 48 hours of the market opening. Wembanyama is shaping up to be a very exciting long shot pick, following an impressive rookie season that was both dominant and entertaining in NBA history.

To illustrate his improvement over the course of the season, consider his stats from the first 28 games: 18.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.9 APG, 3.1 BPG, 1.3 SPG, and 1.4 3PG. In contrast, in his final 29 games, he posted 22.7 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, 4.2 BPG, 1.4 SPG, and 2.2 3PG. He is also a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, highlighting the importance of defense in MVP discussions.

I only have one concern: he won’t turn 21 until January. The youngest NBA MVP so far was Derrick Rose at 22. Do you think voters will consider his age a disadvantage, and do you believe he has what it takes to compete with Jokic and Doncic in terms of performance?

Cowart: Wembanyama seems like the obvious choice, and it’s great to see that everyone else agrees. His odds have dropped from +5000 to +4000 at DraftKings and as short as +2000 at BetMGM while writing this, showing that others are also intrigued by the French prodigy.

In the eyes of voters, his age is insignificant due to his incredible talent that defies traditional expectations. His potential for production is limitless, as seen by his remarkable growth as a rookie. I have full confidence in him and am placing my bets on his success in the upcoming season.

I must admit, I just can’t give up on Kawhi Leonard (+15000). Despite his injury history, he has proven himself as one of the top players in the league with multiple top-five finishes and an All-NBA nod. He may not be at full strength again, but I believe there is more than a 0.66% chance of success, especially if Paul George departs and Leonard becomes the focal point of the team.

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How to read NBA MVP odds

Understanding NBA MVP odds requires knowledge of the implied probability and potential payouts for each player’s chances of winning the award. These odds are usually displayed in American format, with plus and minus symbols indicating underdogs and favorites. For example, a player with odds of +500 would yield a $500 profit on a $100 bet if they win, whereas odds of -200 would necessitate a $200 bet to earn a $100 profit.

When analyzing NBA MVP odds, lower numbers mean the player is more likely to win, while higher numbers mean the player is less likely to win. Bettors should take into account a player’s performance, team success, and overall storyline when looking at MVP odds.

Comparing odds across various sportsbooks is crucial in finding the best value bets. Bettors should also be aware that MVP odds may change throughout the season due to player performance, injuries, and other factors. Staying informed and monitoring these odds changes are essential for making well-informed betting choices.

Past NBA MVP winners

NBA MVP FAQs

Who is the NBA MVP favorite?

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets is the front-runner to win MVP again, starting with odds as low as +350. This suggests a 22.22% chance that he will secure his fourth MVP in five seasons.

Who won the NBA MVP last year?

In the 2023-24 season, Nikola Jokic clinched his third NBA MVP award in four years, dominating in points (26.4), rebounds (12.4), and assists (9.0) to easily win the prestigious honor.

When will the NBA MVP be decided?

The 2023-24 award was revealed during the NBA playoffs on Wednesday, May 8, so we can anticipate that next year’s award will also be determined around the same time.

What is the NBA MVP trophy called?

The Michael Jordan Trophy is now awarded annually to the NBA’s most valuable player, replacing the previous NBA MVP trophy.

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