USA vs. Canada Prediction & Odds: Wednesday's Expert Picks for Olympic Exhibition

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Canada and Anthony Edwards and Austin Reaves of the United States seen in action as we offer our best USA vs. Canada prediction and odds for Wednesday's Olympic exhibition in Las Vegas. — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Canada and Anthony Edwards and Austin Reaves of the United States seen in action in the FIBA Basketball World Cup at the Mall of Asia Arena-Manila. Photo by Nicholas Muller / SOPA Images via Imagn.

In their previous matchup on the basketball court, the U.S. national team suffered a shocking upset against Canada in the FIBA World Cup last summer. However, our top sports betting sites anticipate a different outcome in their upcoming game.

In Wednesday’s exhibition game between Team USA and Canada, Team USA is heavily favored to win by 15.5 points according to the men’s Olympic basketball odds. The game will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at 10:30 p.m. ET and can be watched on FS1 and Fubo.

This is our top prediction and odds for the initial Olympic warm-up match between the USA and Canada.

USA vs. Canada prediction

Select your level of confidence using a 1 to 5-star rating system and check the odds on our top sports betting apps.

Canada +15.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When these teams last faced off, the Canadians achieved a historic victory with a 127-118 overtime win against the Americans. This win secured their first-ever medal in the FIBA World Cup.

This led to a meeting of all members of Team USA, including LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Joel Embiid, joining forces to almost guarantee a gold medal in the upcoming Olympic tournament. It is no surprise that the Americans are heavy favorites at -400 to win it all, and I would find it difficult to bet against them.

However, this team recently convened in Las Vegas for a training camp on Saturday, and they have limited experience playing together. In contrast, the Canadians participated in the FIBA run a year ago and have much more at stake in Wednesday’s game compared to their counterparts from the United States.

Motivation looms in exhibition

Canadian wing Dillon Brooks has emphasized that this game holds special significance for Canada, as the country has not won a medal in Olympic men’s basketball since 1936. Canada recognizes that in order to have a chance at securing gold in Paris, they will need to overcome the formidable Team USA.

This is clearly a warm-up for the Americans. In the past, USA Basketball has treated exhibition games as a way to iron out any issues before the real competition begins. So it’s not surprising that this group may not come out strong just days after their first practice together.

Durant’s absence due to a calf injury on Wednesday serves as a fitting reminder that Team USA may not be at full strength for this exhibition, despite their depth.

Don’t sleep on Canada

Even if this was not an exhibition, I am intrigued by how Canada compares to Team USA on paper.

It can be argued that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the top player in the game on Wednesday, considering he came in second in NBA MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic. With SGA leading the way, Canada boasts impressive defensive abilities on the perimeter that could disrupt the U.S. offense. Additionally, Canada has enough offensive talent to challenge Team USA if they do not bring their full defensive effort.

The Americans have a distinct advantage in the paint, with Embiid posing a difficult matchup for any team, particularly Canada. However, considering his injury past, it would be surprising if the Americans heavily relied on the former MVP in an exhibition game or gave him a full playing load.

Expect Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, and other top Canadian NBA players to be motivated by the large spread in this exhibition game. I confidently predict a Canadian victory and wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off an upset.

USA vs. Canada odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
USA	-15.5	-2000	Over 194.5
Canada	+15.5	+750	Under 194.5

USA vs. Canada game info

When: Wednesday, July 10
Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
How to watch: FS1, Fubo
Favorite: USA -15.5

Prediction for USA vs. Canada made on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Morgan Xaviero

Morgan Xaviero is a publishing editor and lead writer for Underscoreg Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, “C-Jax” has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Underscoreg Review team. He’s a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels’ championship run through the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he’s played a key role in Underscoreg Review’s coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he’s cashed some big bets over the years — including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) — he’s still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed “process over results” bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He’s written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn’t forgiven his “inside source” for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.