March Madness Trends, Predictions: One of These 11 Teams Will Win the NCAA Tournament
We are analyzing past March Madness trends in order to forecast the champion of the NCAA Tournament and to pinpoint potential value bets according to the college basketball odds.
Each year, sixty-eight teams eagerly enter the March Madness bracket dreaming of a championship run. But in reality, only a select few have a genuine chance at taking home the title. The number of teams with a realistic shot at winning the NCAA Tournament is surprisingly small.
Upsets and Cinderella stories in March Madness captivate fans during the tournament’s first rounds, adding an element of chaos to the event. However, the final outcome is often predictable, with only 13 schools winning the last 25 national titles. These champions often share similarities with each other throughout the century.
As each season passes, the path to success becomes more evident, and we have some guidelines on how to complete a March Madness bracket to assist you. Even in last year’s remarkable tournament, the champion followed a pattern consistent with the historical trends of past winners in the KenPom era (since 1999).
We have distinguished the top teams from the rest to assist in your March Madness predictions for the upcoming 2026 NCAA Tournament. Take a closer look at the characteristics of past champions to guide your college basketball selections for this year’s bracket.
Utilize these trends to enhance your chances of winning in the top free bracket challenges.
March Madness pretenders
To begin, it is clear that no team seeded 8th or lower has ever won the NCAA Tournament, and no team with a worse seed has even made it to the championship round. Using history as our guide, we can immediately eliminate more than half of the teams from contention.
As of Selection Sunday, here are the March Madness odds for the remaining 32 teams provided by BetMGM.
| Team (seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| UConn (1) | +400 |
| Purdue (1) | +600 |
| Houston (1) | +600 |
| Arizona (2) | +1200 |
| North Carolina (1) | +1300 |
| Tennessee (2) | +1500 |
| Auburn (4) | +1800 |
| Iowa State (2) | +1800 |
| Kentucky (3) | +2500 |
| Marquette (2) | +2500 |
| Duke (4) | +3000 |
| Creighton (3) | +3000 |
| Illinois (3) | +3000 |
| Alabama (4) | +3500 |
| Baylor (3) | +3500 |
| Kansas (4) | +4000 |
| Florida (7) | +5000 |
| Gonzaga (5) | +6000 |
| Saint Mary’s (5) | +6600 |
| BYU (6) | +6600 |
| San Diego State (5) | +8000 |
| Wisconsin (5) | +8000 |
| Texas (7) | +10000 |
| FAU (8) | +10000 |
| Texas Tech (6) | +10000 |
| Mississippi State (8) | +10000 |
| South Carolina (6) | +10000 |
| Utah State (8) | +12500 |
| Washington State (7) | +15000 |
| Clemson (6) | +15000 |
| Nebraska (8) | +15000 |
| Dayton (7) | +15000 |
Although securing a top-eight seed is typically considered necessary for a successful tournament run, a more significant indicator of success is adjusted efficiency margin. This metric measures a team’s scoring margin per 100 possessions while accounting for the quality of opponents faced.
All national champions since 1999 have been ranked in the top 25 in that metric before the tournament. This does not bode well for teams like Florida (+5000), Texas (+10000), Mississippi State (+10000), FAU (+10000), South Carolina (+10000), Utah State (+12500), Nebraska (+15000), Dayton (+15000), Clemson (+15000), and Washington State (+15000) – all of which already faced challenging odds to win.
How important are wins and losses in determining a national title winner? While it may seem oversimplified, the fact remains that no team has won the national title with more than 10 losses since Kansas accomplished this feat in 1988. It is not surprising, considering that all but one tournament winner since then has been a top-four seed, and 23 out of 34 champions were No. 1 seeds.
During this unpredictable season, it looks like both Alabama (+3500) and Wisconsin (+8000) will make an early exit from the tournament. With both teams winning less than 70% of their regular season games, they may struggle to compete when it matters most.
While defense is often praised as the key to winning championships, statistics show that 16 out of the last 24 champions were ranked in the top six in adjusted offensive efficiency. Additionally, all but one of these champions were ranked in the top 21. The exception to this trend was the 2014 UConn team, which entered the tournament ranked 57th in offensive efficiency. However, they were able to secure victory thanks to an exceptional performance by star scorer Shabazz Napier, who was the No. 2 player in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings.
North Carolina (+1300), Tennessee (+1500), and San Diego State (+8000) are ranked outside the top 21 offensively, but each team has a top-10 player in this year’s Player of the Year rankings. On the other hand, Iowa State (+1800), Kansas (+4000), Saint Mary’s (+6600), and Texas Tech (+10000) do not have a top-21 offense or a top-10 player on their roster.
What about the defensive end of the court? Since 1999, every champion has been ranked in the top 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with 16 of them having a top-20 unit. This does not bode well for teams like Kentucky (+2500), Illinois (+3000), Baylor (+3500), Gonzaga (+6000), and BYU (+6600), all of which are ranked outside of the top 45 in defensive efficiency.
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Which teams can win March Madness in 2026?
Now that we have narrowed down the field, which teams are the top contenders to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Let’s take a closer look at the remaining 11 teams, including their top title odds from our recommended sports betting sites and their national rankings in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjOE), adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE), and adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM) as they enter the tournament.
| Team (seed) | Best title odds | AdjOE | AdjDE | AdjEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn (1) | +400 via BetMGM | 1st | 11th | 1st |
| Houston (1) | +600 via bet365 | 17th | 2nd | 2nd |
| Purdue (1) | +750 via Caesars | 4th | 21st | 3rd |
| Arizona (2) | +1400 via bet365 | 8th | 12th | 6th |
| North Carolina (1) | +1700 via FanDuel | 24th | 6th | 9th |
| Tennessee (2) | +1800 via bet365 | 29th | 3rd | 7th |
| Auburn (4) | +2200 via FanDuel | 10th | 4th | 4th |
| Marquette (2) | +3000 via Caesars | 21st | 19th | 12th |
| Creighton (3) | +3000 via Caesars | 12th | 24th | 11th |
| Duke (4) | +3500 via DraftKings | 7th | 26th | 8th |
| San Diego State (5) | +10000 via BetMGM | 62nd | 9th | 21st |
UConn Huskies (+400)
It’s no shock to those who have been keeping up with college basketball that two out of our four experts, excluding ChatGPT, have predicted the Huskies to win again in our March Madness bracket. With the top-ranked offense and overall net efficiency, it’s clear why they are the favored choice.
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In connection with this, we requested ChatGPT to complete a March Madness bracket by selecting the winner for each NCAA Tournament game.
Houston Cougars (+600)
The Cougars’ offense faltered in the Big 12 Tournament final, but their elite defense and extensive tournament experience will be key assets in the upcoming weeks. It’s no surprise they were ranked No. 1 at the end of the regular season.
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Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
Purdue boasts the makings of a national champion on paper, led by star center Zach Edey, who is the top contender for the Wooden Award. With a defense ranked in the top 25, can the Boilermakers finally overcome their tournament struggles?
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Arizona Wildcats (+1400)
Arizona, despite losing in the Pac-12 Tournament, did not secure a No. 1 seed. However, they are among the top three teams with both a top-12 offense and defense. Keep an eye on Caleb Love if he starts heating up in this tournament.
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North Carolina Tar Heels (+1700)
Love’s old team has returned to the top seed after failing to make the tournament in 2026-23. While the Tar Heels’ offense may not be as strong as other champions, senior guard RJ Davis has the potential to lead them to a successful tournament run with his elite scoring abilities.
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Tennessee Volunteers (+1800)
Similar to UNC, Tennessee may not seem impressive on offense, but they have one of the nation’s top scorers in Dalton Knecht. Coupled with a top-three defense backing up his consistent performances, it would be unwise to underestimate the Volunteers in the Midwest Region.
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Auburn Tigers (+2200)
Auburn, with the lowest efficiency margin on Selection Sunday, is faced with a tough challenge in the competitive East Region. Despite this, the Tigers possess all the qualities needed to potentially become national champions.
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Marquette Golden Eagles (+3000)
Marquette was a popular choice to win the NCAA Tournament in 2026 until Tyler Kolek’s injury derailed their hopes in the second round. Despite facing another injury this year, a fully healthy Golden Eagles team is a formidable contender.
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Creighton Bluejays (+3000)
Creighton, the only team to defeat defending champion UConn in the past three months, boasts a hyper-efficient offense and stingy defense that are characteristic of a championship contender. The Bluejays are definitely a team to watch.
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Duke Blue Devils (+3500)
The Blue Devils are not often seen as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, but with a potential standout player like 7-foot-0 center Kyle Filipowski, Duke could surprise top teams if he performs well in the upcoming weeks.
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San Diego State (+10000)
It isn’t far-fetched to consider that the Aztecs could reach the national title game in 2026, with a top-10 defense leading the way for an offense ranked outside the top 60. Can star center Jaedon LeDee, currently fifth in KenPom’s Player of the Year race, ignite another Cinderella run for Brian Dutcher’s team?
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2026 March Madness bracket
To access our free March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, click the link below to download and print.
Get your hands on our FREE printable March Madness bracket and follow our college basketball experts for assistance with all of your FREE March Madness bracket challenges.
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March Madness betting odds pages
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