3 Bets to Consider While Burrow is Sidelined with Injury
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow sustained a calf injury at the start of preseason camp. As the timeline for his recovery remains uncertain, let’s explore three key markets to keep an eye on according to the top NFL odds.
During preseason camp, the NFL was reminded of the unpredictable nature of the game when Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow injured his calf on July 27 and had to be carted off the field. Head coach Zac Taylor informed the media that Burrow would be out for several weeks, throwing his availability for Week 1 into question.
NFL insider Ian Rapoport has reported that sources within the team are confident that he will be prepared for the season opener.
However, Burrow remains at risk of missing another preseason, as he has only played three preseason snaps in his career since being drafted No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has yet to experience a typical summer leading into a new season, resulting in some lackluster performances at the start.
Will Burrow throw four interceptions in the season opener against the Cleveland Browns, like he did last year against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1? Or should we consider other betting options related to Burrow’s injury?
Here are our top picks for Joe Burrow injury-related bets (odds sourced from our recommended sports betting apps).
Joe Burrow injury picks
Ravens +3.5 in Week 2 (-110 via DraftKings)
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It may seem like a good idea to take advantage of the Week 1 betting lines after Burrow’s injury was announced, but the market has already adjusted accordingly. The Bengals started as 2.5-point favorites against the Browns, but the line has since dropped to 1 on most NFL betting sites. With the possibility of more positive news about Burrow’s injury, it’s best to wait and see before placing any bets on this game.
Instead of that, I decided to place a bet on the Baltimore Ravens for their Week 2 game against Cincinnati. The uncertainty surrounding Burrow’s status seems to be factored into the Week 1 line, but the Week 2 matchup has remained unchanged. If Burrow is unable to play in the season opener, there is no guarantee he will be ready for the following week. This could mean it would be Burrow’s first or second game of the season after limited preseason playing time.
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I am particularly fond of this bet because it holds value even if Burrow is fully recovered by the regular season. Not only do my current power ratings suggest the Week 2 line is slightly underestimated, but it is plausible that the spread could shift below the key number of 3 before kickoff.
The Bengals will kick off the season against the Browns in a rivalry matchup, while the Ravens are expected to easily defeat the Houston Texans in Week 1. If Baltimore, favored by 9.5 points, secures a big win, the market may overreact, especially if the offense excels under new coordinator Todd Monken.
Mike Macdonald, Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, gave Burrow a tough time in his first season. Burrow’s highest passing yardage was 217 yards in three games against Macdonald’s defense.
According to PFF, Burrow’s impact on the spread is valued at 4.7 points, although some may argue it could be higher. This is a crucial factor to consider when tracking betting lines in the early weeks as we receive updates on Burrow’s condition.
Bengals Under 3.5 division wins (+140 via DraftKings)
In my Bengals betting preview, it was noted that the team is up against tough competition in their quest for a third consecutive AFC North crown. While they may be seen as favorites, the division has become more competitive.
Despite a weakened AFC North last season, Cincinnati managed to go 3-3 against division rivals on their way to a 12-4 season and a spot in the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals hold a 56-58 all-time record against AFC North opponents, with an 8-10 record since drafting Burrow.
As previously mentioned, the Bengals kick off the season with consecutive games against division rivals. The matchup against the Browns is currently seen as a close contest, but that could shift depending on the availability of their starting quarterback. The Ravens pose a tough challenge as the Bengals’ home opener, with sportsbooks labeling them as the top contender in the division.
Cincinnati will not face another AFC North team until Week 11, so Burrow’s status only matters for the first two games. If he is unable to play or limited in any way, there is a possibility that the Under on 3.5 division wins at +140 may not be a bad bet.
Caesars has removed this market for the Bengals, so capitalize on DraftKings’ oversight by keeping it available.
Monitor Burrow’s MVP odds (+750 via DraftKings)
There is a silver lining for Burrow and his team in this situation. Despite a potential slow start, I have faith in the Bengals’ potential more than many other teams. In fact, a slow start could even work in our favor.
At the start of last season, Burrow had odds of around +1300 to win MVP, but his chances decreased significantly after he threw four interceptions in a loss to the Steelers. Despite this setback, he managed to finish fourth in MVP voting. Had the Bengals secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Burrow may have even finished higher in the rankings.
Although Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs won the award last year, Joe Burrow has become the favorite at some sportsbooks like BetMGM. The most favorable odds for Burrow to win the award are +750, with other top sports betting sites offering him at 7/1 or better.
I haven’t made a preseason MVP bet yet because the prices aren’t favorable, but I’m prepared to take advantage of any potential drops in value as the season progresses. Burrow is a quarterback I’m interested in adding to my list, especially if he struggles in Week 1 or has a slow start to the season.
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