Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Week 11: Monday Night Football
We have a 2.0 unit lead on our NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the 2023 season and are aiming for a 3-2 week as we analyze the odds from our top NFL betting sites for the Monday Night Football game featuring the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
Our Week 11 anytime touchdown scorer predictions got off to a rough start when Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens got injured early in the Thursday Night Football game. However, we bounced back on Sunday by successfully predicting Jahmyr Gibbs at +120 and Mike Evans at +240. Unfortunately, we lost one unit when T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings didn’t score a touchdown in the Sunday Night Football game against the Denver Broncos.
Therefore, heading into the highly anticipated Monday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, we are currently up 2.0 units for the season. Despite the surprisingly low betting total of 45.5 points for Monday’s game, we are looking to identify a potential touchdown scorer in our predictions for the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup.
Be sure to check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs NFL player props and expert picks to assist with your betting on this Super Bowl rematch.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11: Monday Night Football
Eagles vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Rashee Rice, KCC, WR (+230 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Eagles and the Washington Commanders are tied for the league-high with 14 touchdowns given up to opposing wide receivers this season. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Despite this, targeting Travis Kelce for an anytime touchdown may not provide much value, as his best odds sit at -115 with BetMGM.
Instead of looking at the Chiefs’ receiving corps as a whole, let’s shift the focus to rookie Rashee Rice. He led the group in snap share in the two weeks leading up to Kansas City’s bye week. In both Week 8 and 9, he was the sole wide receiver on the team to receive a red-zone target, and he scored in two out of his last three games.
Rice is projected to score 0.3 touchdowns on Monday, which is the highest among all Kansas City receivers and second only to Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. With a 30% chance of this happening, we would expect the odds to be around +230. While BetMGM’s odds don’t offer much value, they are still much better than Caesars’ lower odds of +175.
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Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11: Sunday
Bears vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
The Detroit Lions, as one of the five home favorites in Week 11, are favored by 7.5 points against the Chicago Bears, who are considered a weaker team with an implied team total of 20 points.
I am focusing on a touchdown line for running back Jahmyr Gibbs, whose odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year have been increasing in recent weeks.
In his last four games, Gibbs has scored four rushing touchdowns. Despite Montgomery’s return, Gibbs maintained a 58% snap share in the Lions’ Week 10 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers after starting two games in his place due to injury.
However, Montgomery’s chances of scoring an anytime touchdown against the Bears on Sunday are currently at +100 odds with Caesars. You can also place a bet on Gibbs making a red-zone visit at outlier +120 odds with Caesars, while BetRivers has the lowest market odds at -152.
Check out our Phil Wood’s Jared Goff NFL player props for the Bears vs. Lions game to complement this pick.
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Buccaneers vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Mike Evans, TBB, WR (+240 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
DraftKings is offering Evans inflated +240 odds to score an anytime touchdown on Sunday. Despite having a projected 0.4 touchdowns, the same as San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Evans has higher odds compared to Aiyuk’s +155 odds on FanDuel.
The +150 odds typically correspond to a 40% implied probability, but DraftKings is exceeding this figure with BetMGM offering the lowest odds on the market at +105.
The Niners are heavily favored by 12 points at home in the 4 p.m. ET game, but the Buccaneers have managed to score a touchdown in all but one game this season. Evans had an impressive performance in the last game against the Titans, with six catches for 143 yards and his sixth touchdown of the season.
Check out Young Quigley’s player props for the Buccaneers versus 49ers NFL game for additional insight into the matchup.
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Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 11: Sunday Night Football
Vikings vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer prediction: T.J. Hockenson, MIN, TE (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
Hockenson has scored a touchdown in two out of his last three games and caught 11 passes on a season-high 15 targets from QB Joshua Dobbs in the Minnesota Vikings’ 27-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints. This strong rapport with the new QB is promising as they prepare for Sunday Night Football against the Denver Broncos, who have struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing four touchdowns and a league-leading 620 yards.
Hockenson is expected to score 0.3 touchdowns on Sunday night. We were able to secure +250 odds from FanDuel for this pick, even though the 30% implied probability of him scoring should equate to +233 odds. Other NFL prop betting sites are not offering odds over +220, with BetMGM offering the lowest odds at +150.
To learn more about the SNF showdown between the Vikings and Broncos, check out Allen Byron’s prediction, Sanchez Rhea’s NFL player props for the game, and Phil Wood’s player props for Russell Wilson.
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Anytime touchdown scorer predictions: Week 11: Thursday Night Football
Bengals vs. Ravens anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Mark Andrews, BAL, TE (+165 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
The odds for Thursday’s Bengals vs. Ravens matchup are quite intriguing.
Mark Andrews, the tight end for the Ravens, has scored six receiving touchdowns in 2023 and has a total of seven career touchdowns in 10 games against the Bengals. He added to his tally with his seventh touchdown in a Week 2 matchup in Cincinnati, where he caught five passes out of eight targets.
Furthermore, Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to contain opposing tight ends in 2023, allowing four touchdowns to the position. The Bengals have surrendered 602 yards to tight ends, ranking them among the bottom three teams in the league in this category.
Despite the odds being heavily in our favor, Andrews is only projected for 0.5 touchdowns on Thursday. This 50% implied probability should equate to even-money +100 odds, but all of our top sports betting apps are offering better odds. The best value can be found on FanDuel, which is offering +160 for this pick.
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