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NFL Award Picks & Predictions 2023-24: Best Value Odds for Top NFL Honors

Lewis Ulmer

Updated as of January 2, 2024 at 1:37 PM EST. Read time: 3 minutes and 11 seconds. Find more on Twitter and Google News.

Puka Nacua #17 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up prior to the game
Puka Nacua #17 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2023 in Inglewood, California Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy via AFP

As our top Super Bowl betting sites prepare for the NFL playoffs, they are also offering opportunities to explore potential value in end-of-season NFL awards markets. Let’s take a closer look at some of the best value picks available, as many of these markets may appear challenging to predict.

As we head into the final week of the regular season, our top NFL betting sites are still offering NFL award markets for fans to wager on. With Week 18 approaching, some teams may choose to rest their players, while others are fighting to make the playoffs and relying on underrated players to make a difference in their award markets.

These top value plays for the NFL award markets in Week 18 are determined by the odds provided by our top sports betting apps.

NFL award value best bets

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Defensive Player of the Year value pick

T.J. Watt (+650 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

All the plays mentioned will receive a two-star rating due to the higher risk associated with value picks. Our focus will start with the Defensive Player of the Year market, where Caesars is offering an attractive price for a player who is statistically favored to win the award.

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt has matched Myles Garrett with four forced fumbles this season. Additionally, Watt has more fumble recoveries and touchdowns than both Garrett and Micah Parsons. Leading the league with 17 sacks in 16 games, Watt aims to secure the sack title for the third time in the past four years.

Offensive Rookie of the Year value pick

Puka Nacua (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

There is a strong possibility of Los Angeles Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua overtaking Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud in this market. Despite Stroud’s return from a two-game injury absence last week, Nacua’s chances of success have been steadily increasing.

There is no doubt that Stroud’s absence has given Nacua the opportunity to make a comeback. Nacua’s performance in Week 16 was crucial in keeping his odds competitive with Stroud, according to our top sports betting sites.

As we approach Week 18, the competition in this market is tighter than the odds suggest. A single subpar performance from Stroud could potentially give Nacua the edge. Additionally, with Houston playing on Saturday night, Nacua’s value will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the Texans vs. Colts game.

Defensive Rookie of the Year value pick

Will Anderson (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Even though Jalen Carter was the market favorite, Anderson’s odds improved drastically from 30/1 to 4/1 in just one week. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are facing significant challenges on defense, evident in their recent loss to the Arizona Cardinals where they allowed 35 points.

Anderson finds himself in a contrasting position to his teammate Stroud. While he is currently on the outside looking in, he is poised to perform strongly against Indianapolis. As Sunday of Week 18 approaches, he may very well become the favorite to win.

Once more, Houston’s game on Saturday will affect both his and Carter’s chances. If you’re still searching for value in these award markets, consider taking a ticket on Anderson now.

Comeback Player of the Year value pick

Baker Mayfield (+1600 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

This award for the best play in the NFL is heavily influenced by price, with Mayfield being a strong contender. However, for Mayfield to have a chance at winning, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers must also win their division. If Tampa Bay loses on Sunday, this ticket becomes worthless.

If Tampa Bay wins, the odds are likely to decrease to three digits, possibly surpassing Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco, who still needs to have a strong performance in Week 18. It’s important to note that Mayfield has played a full season, while Flacco has only played five games leading up to Week 18.

Responsible voters should prioritize Mayfield over Flacco, or at the very least consider doing so.

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Written By:
Lewis Ulmer
Lewis Ulmer has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.