NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 11: Will Purdy Benefit from Healthy Supporting Cast?
One of our top NFL player prop bets for Week 11 is centered around San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, based on the NFL odds.
In Week 10 of the NFL, the league’s parity was evident as six games came down to a field-goal attempt and the three prime-time matchups were decided by a total of nine points.
Nevertheless, with five teams expected to win by nine or more points in the NFL Week 11 odds, the outcome may vary this week.
Be sure to take a look at our NFL Week 11 predictions, best bets, and player props, including Stewart Serena’s picks. Odds are provided by top NFL betting sites, with confidence ratings from 1 to 5 stars. Don’t miss out!
NFL best bets: Week 11
- Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Buccaneers (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tony Pollard Over 20.5 receiving yards (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Javonte Williams Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jets-Bills Under 40 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 11 NFL schedule and odds
The odds from Caesars as of 5:10 p.m. ET on Thursday.
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (-1)
- Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
- Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-9)
- New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders (-9.5)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans (-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-12)
- New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
- Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
NFL player props
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The return of wide receiver Deebo Samuel to the field seemed to have a positive impact on the San Francisco 49ers, as they ended a three-game losing streak. Quarterback Brock Purdy has significantly better stats when Samuel is on the field, including a higher completion percentage, a better TD-INT ratio, and a higher Total QBR. Samuel’s presence appears to greatly benefit Purdy’s performance.
Purdy threw multiple passing touchdowns in all of his first seven starts last year, including playoffs, and started this season strong with two or more touchdown passes in three of the first five games. With the skill position players around him now healthy, we anticipate him reaching that same level of success once again.
We are receiving a fantastic deal at FanDuel, with Purdy’s price for throwing two or more touchdowns being as high as -166 at Caesars.
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Tony Pollard Over 20.5 receiving yards (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys has been dominant against man coverage this season, leading the league in passing yards, touchdowns, passer rating, CPOE, and success rate, according to The Playbook. However, the Carolina Panthers have adjusted their defensive strategy to limit Prescott’s effectiveness in other situations. In Week 8 against the Houston Texans, the Panthers used man coverage only 3.6% of the time, holding C.J. Stroud to a season-low 140 passing yards. This was the fourth-lowest rate of man coverage by any defense in any game in 2023, as reported by CBS Fantasy’s Jacob Gibbs.
Carolina has utilized zone coverage at the second-highest rate (84%) up to Week 9, indicating that Dallas is likely to rely heavily on check-downs and underneath routes offensively. This could benefit Pollard, who has been averaging 21.1 receiving yards per game despite only totaling 14 receiving yards in the last three games. We anticipate a bounce-back performance from Pollard this week, even though the Panthers have been facing the third-fewest pass attempts per game.
Although all of our NFL prop betting sites set the over/under at 20.5 yards, only DraftKings is providing positive odds for Pollard to surpass his projected total.
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Javonte Williams Over 67.5 rushing yards vs. Vikings (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Denver Broncos have discovered a winning formula that goes beyond their greatly improved defensive performance, leading to a three-game winning streak. It all began with prioritizing running back Javonte Williams and giving him more opportunities to carry the ball.
Over the last three games, Williams has recorded his three highest rushing attempt totals and has managed to gain over 79 yards in each game. His impressive performance has been a key factor in Denver’s ground game accounting for 48.7% of the team’s total yards gained in the last five games, the highest rate in the NFL according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Denver is anticipated to prioritize the running game even more in the upcoming cold and potentially wet Sunday night game at home. The Minnesota Vikings are known for blitzing on almost half of their opponents’ dropbacks, and Denver’s quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled against the blitz, ranking 28th in the league in passer rating and yards per attempt. Utilizing the running game effectively will help Denver stay ahead of the chains and counteract these weaknesses.
While Caesars offers the highest juice (-117) for betting on the Over, Williams has been performing exceptionally well recently. We recommend considering his +135 odds to exceed his alternate rushing yards total of 80+ at DraftKings.
To learn more about this game, check out my predictions for the Vikings vs. Broncos matchup.
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NFL game picks
Jets-Bills Under 40 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Buffalo Bills are facing mid-season challenges, with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey being fired last week. It remains to be seen how new offensive coordinator Joe Brady will shake up the offense, but it’s clear that the New York Jets have a good understanding of the Bills’ offense and Josh Allen.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Allen has a rating of 63.7 against the opponent he has faced multiple times, which is his lowest. He has been in a slump, with an average of less than seven air yards per attempt in four of his last five games. With New York’s top cover cornerback Sauce Gardner likely to shadow Stefon Diggs, Buffalo’s offense may struggle as we have seen in the past when Diggs is neutralized.
Over the last month, Diggs’ average depth of target has been six yards downfield. This has contributed to Buffalo’s 2-4 record in their previous six games, where they have averaged 20.5 points per game and committed an NFL-high 13 turnovers. In contrast, their record was 3-1 in the first four games with an average of 34.8 points per game and only five turnovers. Despite Buffalo’s defensive struggles since Week 5, ranking 30th in defensive EPA, we are not concerned about New York’s ability to score points. Buffalo’s offense has the worst third-down conversion rate in the league at 25% and has failed to score a touchdown in 35 consecutive drives.
BetMGM and DraftKings have already decreased their totals to 39.5, so we are capitalizing on the most favorable number available at Caesars and bet365.
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Best NFL bets placed on 11/16/2023 at 4:11 p.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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