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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 17: Will Kupp Score vs. Giants?

Allen Byron

Updated as of December 31, 2023 at 11:23 AM EST. Read time: 4 minutes and 59 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News provided.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

With no Monday game in Week 17, the 15 remaining NFL games will take place on Saturday and Sunday. Check out our top NFL player props and best bets, utilizing the most favorable NFL odds from reputable sportsbooks.

Week 17 will be crucial as no AFC division has been secured yet, with only the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions having clinched an NFC division.

The Baltimore Ravens have the opportunity to secure the top seed in the AFC with a win against the Miami Dolphins in their second consecutive important game. In both the AFC South and NFC South divisions, three teams are separated by one game or less, making every outcome crucial in determining playoff probabilities.

Here are our NFL player props, best bets, and picks for Week 17, along with our NFL Week 17 predictions and player props. Our confidence in each pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, with odds provided by our top NFL betting sites.

NFL best bets: Week 17

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Week 17 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Week 17

Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 interceptions vs. Cardinals (-180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In the past two weeks, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrown three interceptions, bringing his total to at least one interception in nine out of 15 games this season.

Many of his struggles this season can be attributed to his performance against the blitz. In the past, he excelled under pressure, with a 20-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio when blitzed from 2020 to 2022. However, this year his ratio has plummeted to 5-7 when facing the blitz, with seven interceptions – the highest number thrown by any quarterback this season. This includes a costly pick-6 against the New York Giants in the previous game.

Luckily for Hurts, Arizona rarely blitzes, with the lowest rate in the league at 15.8% according to Sharp Football Analysis. They also apply pressure at a rate in the bottom six at 32.4%. This should allow Hurts to feel more at ease in the pocket and focus on protecting the football. It’s possible that he won’t even have to throw the ball as much, with the over/under for his passing attempts set at 31.5 on FanDuel.

Since the Under has such high odds of -210 at bet365, we feel fine with the -180 price at DraftKings for Hurts to avoid throwing an interception.

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Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown scorer vs. Giants (+137 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

In the first four weeks of the season, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford struggled, throwing five interceptions and only three passing touchdowns.

Nevertheless, he has been performing exceptionally well recently, scoring multiple passing touchdowns in five consecutive games and achieving four straight games with multiple touchdowns and zero interceptions. This is his longest streak since joining Los Angeles, and we anticipate that Stafford’s most reliable receiver will benefit from his impressive performance.

Kupp’s four touchdown catches are the second highest on the team, achieved in only 11 games. Despite not scoring a touchdown in the last game, he was still heavily targeted by Stafford, receiving 12 passes, and missed out on two potential touchdown catches.

As of last week, Kupp had a target share of 21.5% and an air-yard share of 18.2% since Week 12, coinciding with Stafford’s strong performance. Furthermore, during Weeks 14 to 16, Kupp had a larger target and first-read share compared to his teammate Puka Nacua.

We are taking advantage of Kupp’s lower value with Nacua’s impressive 9-164-1 game against the New Orleans Saints. However, Kupp has more favorable matchups against the New York Giants’ weaker slot cornerbacks.

We are finding excellent value on Kupp scoring a touchdown at bet365, as he has odds as low as +100 to score anytime at BetMGM.

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NFL game picks for Week 17

Dolphins +3.5 vs. Ravens (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Ravens are currently favored to win the AFC, but if the Dolphins win all their remaining games, they would secure the top seed in the playoffs.

Despite Baltimore’s impressive record against teams with winning records and their significant time spent in the lead, betting on the Dolphins with more than a field goal seems like a smart choice.

Miami’s defense struggled in the first seven weeks of the season, ranking 27th in completion percentage allowed, allowing the 27th-most points per game, and the second-highest total QBR. However, since Jalen Ramsey returned from a knee injury in Week 8, the Dolphins have drastically improved to eighth in completion percentage allowed, first in scoring defense, and first in total QBR.

After an impressive performance against the Cowboys, where they limited Dallas to their lowest third-down conversion rate of the season and pressured Dak Prescott on a season-high 42% of dropbacks, the Dolphins are preparing to face the league-leading Ravens rushing attack. Tua Tagovailoa’s 9.8 air yards per attempt was his second-highest of the season, and Miami’s defense held Dallas to just one rush over nine yards, a key factor in their upcoming challenge against Baltimore’s potent ground game.

Caesars is one of our top three sports betting apps offering Miami at +3.5 (most other shops have Dolphins at +3), while FanDuel and DraftKings both have -120 odds for betting on the underdogs.

Panthers +7 vs. Jaguars (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jacksonville Jaguars clinched the AFC South title with two wins in their final games, despite being tied with two other teams at 8-7. The pressure was on for their players, but we are leaning towards supporting the Carolina Panthers, who have been playing well since the departure of head coach Frank Reich and have nothing to lose.

Carolina has fallen slightly behind Jacksonville in offensive EPA/play rankings since Reich’s firing in Week 13, now sitting at 24th compared to the Jaguars’ 20th. This reflects poorly on Trevor Lawrence’s performance, especially considering he may not be able to play due to a shoulder sprain in his throwing arm sustained last week.

In the period since Reich’s firing, the Panthers have moved up to the 16th spot in Defensive EPA/Play, while the Jaguars remain at 24th. This makes it difficult to understand why the Jaguars are favored by a touchdown, especially if C.J. Beathard is playing quarterback.

Carolina has yet to run a play with a lead in the fourth quarter this season, a streak that no team has maintained for an entire season since 1991. We are optimistic that this streak will come to an end this week. The Panthers have struggled on the road, with an 0-8 record straight up and a 2-6 record against the spread. However, the Jaguars have not been much better at home, with a 2-5 record both straight up and against the spread. Additionally, the Jaguars have a poor track record of 10-18 against the spread after a loss under head coach Lawrence.

Out of all the top sports betting sites, Caesars is the only one that still has Carolina +7 available. Other competitors have adjusted their lines below the key number to +6.

Best bets for the NFL were placed on Friday at 7:27 a.m. ET.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”