NFL Best Bets Week 6: Will Giants’ Offensive Struggles Continue vs. Bills?
With NFL teams solidifying their positions in the standings, we shift our focus to Week 6 and our top NFL betting picks, which are determined by the odds provided by our top sports betting apps.
In Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs extended their winning streak against the Denver Broncos to 16 games, making it the longest active streak by one team against a single opponent in NFL history. This impressive feat is even more remarkable considering the teams face off twice a year as AFC West rivals.
However, the New York Giants have struggled under the bright lights. The team has lost all three night games this season, with a combined point differential of -79.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Miami Dolphins have achieved an NFL record for the most offensive yards in their first five games (2,568). They aim to solidify their position as Super Bowl contenders by defeating the winless Carolina Panthers as heavy favorites in their upcoming home game.
To delve deeper into each NFL game this week, be sure to explore our Week 6 NFL predictions. Additionally, we offer NFL player props, teaser picks, upset picks, and survivor picks for your consideration.
Below are our top NFL bets and picks for Week 6, with odds sourced from the top NFL betting sites. Confidence in each pick is rated on a scale from 1 to 5 stars.
NFL best bets: Week 6
- A.J. Brown Under 64.5 receiving yards vs. Jets (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa to record 3+ passing touchdowns vs. Panthers (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Giants Under 15.5 vs. Bills (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patriots-Raiders Under 41.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 6 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
- New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Chicago Bears
- New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. New York Jets
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7)
- New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills (-14.5)
- Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL predictions for Week 6
A.J. Brown Under 64.5 receiving yards vs. Jets (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
A.J. Brown set a franchise record for the Philadelphia Eagles with 1,496 receiving yards in his first year with the team. He has continued to impress this year with 433 receiving yards over the last three games, ranking third in Eagles history for a three-game span. Now, Brown is preparing to take on the tough challenge of facing New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is likely his toughest opponent of the season.
In a recent analysis by PFF’s Jrfortgang, Gardner’s exceptional performance in preventing separation and facing targets was noted compared to other cornerbacks in the league through Week 4. This was further supported by his impressive 81.9 PFF coverage grade and allowing only 19 yards with two forced incompletions in last week’s game against the Denver Broncos.
If not for concerns about a lingering knee injury that kept him sidelined last week, we would consider this a solid five-star play. Despite teammate D.J. Reed’s questionable status, we anticipate Gardner stepping up and performing well in shadow coverage against Brown.
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All of our top sports betting apps have Brown’s receiving yards Over/Under set at 64.5. However, only bet365 does not have odds biased towards the Under, as DraftKings and Caesars have -115 and -117 odds, respectively.
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Tua Tagovailoa to record three-plus passing touchdowns vs. Panthers (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Many are anticipating a drop in performance from the Dolphins’ offense with rookie running back De’Von Achane out due to a knee injury. Achane has set records with the most yards per rush in NFL history (12.1) among those with at least 25 carries in five games. In the last three games, he has accumulated 518 scrimmage yards and scored seven touchdowns.
Surprisingly, Tua Tagovailoa performs better when Achane is not on the field. With Achane present, Tagovailoa has a total QBR of 64, a 3-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, faces pressure on 23% of dropbacks, and averages 6.0 air yards per attempt. However, when Achane is off the field, Tagovailoa’s QBR increases to 79 with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio. He faces pressure on only 14% of dropbacks and averages 8.1 air yards per attempt.
Tagovailoa might not have to throw often if the Dolphins take an early lead, but we anticipate him playing a significant role in Miami’s offensive performance in the absence of their top rushing threat.
Tagovailoa is favored to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns with -225 odds at BetMGM and FanDuel, but we can get better value with this offer at bet365.
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Giants Under 15.5 vs. Bills (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
When the Buffalo Bills take on the Giants, they will be missing key defensive players in the defensive line, linebacker, and secondary. On the other hand, the Giants may also be without their quarterback Daniel Jones, as well as running back Saquon Barkley and offensive lineman Andrew Thomas due to injuries.
The Giants have only scored one touchdown in the first half this season, which came from their defense. Their struggles can be attributed to the fact that they have used 32 different offensive line combinations since 2026, the third-most in the league. In their last two games, the Giants have allowed 18 sacks, the most in a two-game span since the 1986 Eagles, who set an NFL record with 72 sacks that season.
Buffalo had less than 22 minutes of possession in their defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, marking their lowest time of possession in a game since 2019. As a result, we anticipate the Bills relying more heavily on their running game upon returning from London. This strategy should be successful, considering only two teams have a worse ranking than New York in rush EPA.
Buffalo’s impressive performance in their first four games, where they scored over 135 points and allowed fewer than 60, has earned them a four-star rating. This success gives us confidence that the Bills can overcome their injuries against a struggling Giants offense.
Terms and conditions apply.
DraftKings and FanDuel offer a -112 price for betting on New York’s team total Under of 14.5. However, Caesars provides a better price and a slightly higher number for the same bet.
Patriots-Raiders Under 41.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bill Belichick, head coach of the New England Patriots, suffered his two most devastating losses of his coaching career in the past two weeks, with the team being outscored 72-3.
Furthermore, the Patriots have suffered back-to-back defeats by margins of over 30 points for the first time since 1970. Additionally, quarterback Mac Jones has not been able to beat the point spread in any of the past 10 games where his team was considered the underdog.
We are not favoring the Las Vegas Raiders as favorites, but instead, we have a lot of respect for Belichick’s coaching abilities against his former assistants (Josh McDaniels being the Raiders head coach). Therefore, we are giving the Under a four-star play.
Over the past 10 quarters, spanning 34 drives, New England has been unable to score a touchdown. The Patriots currently sit at the bottom of the league in points per game (11.0), efficiency (12.7), three-and-out percentage (27%), and first downs per game (16.4). Additionally, they are tied for 28th in turnovers with 10.
According to ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots receivers are only getting open 40% of the time, the worst in the NFL. Additionally, New England ranks 30th in pass block win rate at 44%. This is concerning, especially when going up against Maxx Crosby, who has recorded five sacks in the first five games of the season, the fourth-most in Raiders history.
Bonus bets must be used within 7 days of receiving them. This offer is only available to new customers. Other terms and conditions may also apply.
BetMGM, DraftKings, and bet365 are the exclusive sportsbooks providing a total of 41.5 at the regular price of -110. Other competing shops either offer a total of 41 or require higher juice to bet on the Under.
NFL top picks placed on 10/12/2026 at 4:13 p.m. ET.
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NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER)* Bonuses cannot be used in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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