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NFL best bets
NFL best bets

With a complete 16-game schedule in Week 8, there is a wide range of choices for our NFL top bets. We carefully compare the best NFL odds from our preferred sports betting apps while selecting our NFL picks.

Week 7 of the NFL saw several unexpected outcomes and games ending with lower scores than anticipated. This trend of underscoring games continued from Week 6, where 12 out of 15 games had lower totals than expected. In the latest week, eight out of 13 games finished below the projected total, with seven underdog teams pulling off surprising victories. This further emphasizes the league’s notable level of competitiveness and balance among teams.

One of the most surprising upsets occurred in the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots game, with the Patriots winning as the largest home underdog (+8.5 or +9, depending on the sportsbook) since 2001.

Below are our top NFL bets and picks for Week 8, with odds sourced from our preferred NFL betting sites. Our confidence level for each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

NFL best bets: Week 8

  • P.J. Walker Over 197.5 passing yards vs. Seahawks (-114 via FanDuel⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cardinals (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Christian Kirk Under 52.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Commanders team total Under 18.5 vs. Eagles (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Week 8 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

NFL predictions for Week 8

P.J. Walker Over 197.5 passing yards vs. Seahawks (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Deshaun Watson, the quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, will not be playing in the Week 8 game against the Seattle Seahawks. Despite concerns about backup quarterback P.J. Walker facing the challenging environment of Lumen Field, where the Seahawks play, it may come as a surprise that Cleveland’s offense has performed even better without Watson.

Since signing a five-year/$230-million deal in March 2022, Watson has a Total QBR of 42 this season, ranking 24th. He also has an 11:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games.

In the past two seasons, Watson has achieved a Total QBR of 41, with a 60% completion rate and an average of 6.4 yards per attempt. During his starts, the Browns have scored an average of 21 points per game. When another quarterback starts for the Browns in Watson’s time, they collectively have a Total QBR of 56, complete 62% of their passes, and average 6.7 yards per attempt, resulting in the team scoring an average of 21.9 points per game.

The line at FanDuel is eight yards below the O/U of 205.5 at DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365, making us more confident in giving it a four-star play at the lower number compared to a three-star play at 205.5.

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Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cardinals (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Last week, the Baltimore Ravens scored touchdowns on their first four drives against the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Lamar Jackson recorded his 17th career game with three or more touchdowns, tying him with Joe Flacco for the most three-touchdown games in Ravens franchise history. Jackson has the opportunity to surpass this record as the Ravens face the struggling Arizona Cardinals next.

According to Fantasy Football analyst Dwain McFarland, the Ravens have exceeded expectations with a plus-8% dropback rate in two of their last three games. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken appears to be fully utilizing the passing game potential brought in by Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers.

Arizona has suffered four straight losses by more than ten points, scoring an average of 13.8 points per game during that stretch. Baltimore, on the other hand, has only allowed nine or fewer points in three games this season and limited six of their seven opponents to one touchdown or less. With this strong defense, we anticipate the Ravens will quickly regain possession of the ball for Jackson and control the time of possession in the game.

We would also recommend considering backing Jackson’s +425 odds to throw three or more touchdowns at bet365.

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Christian Kirk Under 52.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In last week’s game, Marshon Lattimore of the New Orleans Saints successfully shut down Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the first half, preventing him from getting any targets. Looking ahead, the Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to match up their top cover cornerback, Joey Porter Jr., against Christian Kirk, who leads the team in targets (55), receiving yards (474), and receiving touchdowns (three).

According to PFF’s Bradley Locker, Porter has the highest man coverage grade (91.1) among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps. In his recent performance, he shut down Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, not allowing a single catch on three targets. Pittsburgh should focus on containing Kirk this week, especially after his game-winning 44-yard touchdown in the previous game.

Last week, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was ranked 24th in QBR against man coverage, and ranked 30th or lower in yards per attempt and TD-INT ratio in that specific split. As a result, this performance is rated four stars.

Caesars offers the best value for betting the Under with their -104 odds, which is lower than the -115 odds at BetMGM and DraftKings for the same bet.

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Commanders Under 18.5 points vs. Eagles (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Washington Commanders have shown they know how to crack the code of the Philadelphia Eagles’ strong defense, scoring a total of 63 points in their matchups in Week 10 of last year and Week 4 of this year. However, Washington recently struggled with a disappointing seven-point performance against the New York Giants, punting a season-high 10 times in the game.

Sam Howell, the Commanders’ quarterback, has become only the second quarterback in history to be sacked over 40 times in the first seven games of a season. The team allowed six sacks to the Giants, who had only five sacks in their first six games of the season.

Washington is now up against an Eagles defense that ranked seventh in pressure rate (39.2%), sixth in yards per rush allowed (3.6), and second in rushing yards per game allowed as of Week 7.

Philadelphia exceeded expectations with a commanding defensive display against the Miami Dolphins. They held Miami to negative-eight rushing yards in the first quarter, their lowest total in any quarter since 2013. Miami scored a season-low 10 points and gained just 113 yards in the first half, with their negative-seven rushing yards marking the fewest in the first half of an NFL game since 2009.

Philadelphia’s performance last week earned them a four-star rating, with a 62% pass-rush win rate against Miami. This was the second-highest win rate the Dolphins have allowed in the past two seasons, as they typically allow opponents a 45% pass-rush win rate.

Caesars and BetMGM are the only shops that have an Over/Under of 18.5 (all others are at 17.5), however, we prefer Caesars over BetMGM because BetMGM has -120 odds for betting on the Under.

Top NFL wagers placed on 10/26/2023 at 6:49 a.m. ET.

Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!

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