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Bills vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Who Wins This Colossal AFC Matchup?

Allen Byron

Updated on January 2, 2026 at 11:14 AM EST • Read time: 2 minutes and 32 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals is the focus of our Ja'Marr Chase player props
Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals warms up against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Photo by Nick Grace/Getty Images/AFP.

The outcome of the Monday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will have a significant impact on the seeding of the top three teams in the AFC. Check out our top odds for the Bills-Bengals matchup.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, this marks only the second time since 1970 where there has been only one game between winning teams in the final two weeks of a season.

Buffalo (12-3) has secured the AFC East title for the third year in a row and could claim the top seed in the AFC by winning their remaining two games.

If Cincinnati (11-4) wins, they will secure the AFC North title.

The Bengals and Bills have the two longest active winning streaks in the AFC, having won a total of 13 games between them.

Check out our top pick for the Bills-Bengals NFL game on Monday Night Football in Week 17 (odds provided by DraftKings; confidence level rated on a 1 to 5-star scale).

Take a look at our Bills vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay, prop picks for Monday Night Football, and prop picks for Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

Bills vs. Bengals Game Info

The game is scheduled for Monday, January 2nd at 8:30 p.m. on ESPN at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. The weather forecast predicts 61 degrees with a 24% chance of precipitation and 8-mph south winds.

Bills vs. Bengals Odds

Bills vs. Bengals Odds Analysis

Buffalo has fluctuated between being favored by -1 and -1.5 points throughout the week. The line has now settled at -2.5 in favor of the Bills. This slight shift in the line suggests that there is balanced betting on both sides, with the Bengals receiving 50% of the cash and 61% of the tickets.

The total remains at 49.5 across most sportsbooks, with Caesars being the only outlier at 50. The betting activity on the total shows a significant imbalance, with 84% of bets favoring the Over but only 70% of the total amount wagered on it.

Editor’s note: Attention Ohio residents! Legal sports betting has arrived. Explore the top sites for Ohio sports betting and take advantage of the best Ohio sportsbook promotions available.

Bills vs. Bengals Pick

Bengals ML (+100) ⭐⭐

Buffalo’s defensive strategy led by coordinator Leslie Frazier focuses on preventing big plays and forcing opponents to methodically move down the field, only to tighten up in the red zone. The key factor in a matchup between two evenly matched teams could be Cincinnati’s effectiveness in the red zone.

In Week 16, the Bengals had a 68% touchdown percentage on red-zone drives, which is the fourth highest in the league. They also had a red-zone QBR of 80 (fifth), 21 passing touchdowns (tied for second), and 13 rushing touchdowns (tied for ninth). Joe Burrow completed 60.8% of his red-zone attempts and had a 21-0 TD-INT ratio.

The Bills have put in a lot of effort throughout the season to secure their fate as the top seed in the AFC. However, there may be too many obstacles to overcome, including severe weather conditions that disrupted their travel plans after a snowstorm hit their area. In addition, the absence of Von Miller and the lethal skills of Burrow when given time to assess the field will also pose challenges for the team.

Take a look at our Week 17 NFL power rankings, including against the spread analysis.

Bills vs. Bengals Best Odds

BetMGM (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-105-102+100+100+100

Since the Bengals are only receiving +1.5 points, we are choosing to go with the slightly more favorable option of Cincinnati winning the game outright. The main risk associated with this bet is that it will not pay off if the Bengals lose by just one point.

Bengals supporters have a variety of options to choose from when betting on Cincinnati at plus odds, as BetMGM is one of three sportsbooks offering this opportunity.

The Bills-Bengals pick was made on 1/1/2026 at 8:01 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”