Brock Purdy MVP Odds, Pick & History: Should You Bet 49ers QB as Favorite To Win NFL MVP?
As we enter Week 14, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is the front-runner to win the 2023 NFL MVP Award. We analyze whether it is a wise decision to place a bet on the second-year passer to claim the honor, using the top NFL odds available on our recommended sports betting apps.
On December 4, 2022, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy found himself in a unique situation when both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, the team’s starting quarterbacks, were sidelined with season-ending injuries. Lance was injured in Week 2, while Garoppolo broke his foot 11 weeks later during the team’s first offensive drive of a game.
The 49ers decided to give Purdy a chance, despite his reputation as an inconsistent passer with limited arm strength and athleticism from Iowa State. He was ultimately selected as the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, with one team bluntly stating “NO INTEREST” on his pre-draft profile.
Exactly one year later, “Mr. Irrelevant” has become the frontrunner in the NFL MVP odds, with increasing interest from bettors each day.
Purdy has had an impressive 12-month streak, leading him to top the MVP odds at most of our top live betting sites. After the 49ers’ 42-19 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, he has solidified his position. In his debut season as a full-time starter, Purdy has established himself as one of the NFL’s most productive passers. As his team heads into Week 14, they are widely considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Is he a good candidate to win the league’s top individual honor, or is his success primarily due to the system in place to produce MVP-level production?
Let’s analyze the arguments for and against Purdy winning the 2023 NFL MVP Award, considering his odds and the historical factors working against him.
Brock Purdy’s NFL MVP odds entering Week 14
The NFL MVP race this year has been constantly evolving, and Purdy’s rise to the top of the oddsboard is the most notable development of the entire 2023 season.
Despite receiving odds as high as +7500 to win the MVP Award in the summer, Purdy’s chances improved as the season began, with odds ranging from +2500 to +4000 on various sports betting sites. Even as he led the league in passing stats, his odds remained high at +2500 two weeks ago and +1600 before Week 13.
On Sunday, Purdy made NFL history by leading the 49ers to a historic win over the Eagles. He orchestrated six consecutive touchdown drives, a feat achieved only five times this century. Additionally, Purdy became just the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns and earn a passer rating of 140 or higher in three games in a single season, joining the ranks of two former MVPs.
Predictably, Purdy began Monday as the favorite in most of our top sportsbooks. His odds have continued to decrease in the past day as more bettors are placing their bets on the 23-year-old.
Why Brock Purdy is 2023 NFL MVP favorite
Despite the surprise of Purdy’s MVP campaign at first glance, the case for him to win the award is actually quite clear. He has been the top passer in football for the first 13 weeks of the season.
That was the situation at the beginning of Week 13, even before he dominated the NFL’s top team with 314 yards and four touchdowns. He now tops the league in almost every important passing statistic, including those that have distinguished MVP winners in recent seasons.
Here is a breakdown of Purdy’s ranking in important passing statistics up to Week 13:
Pass yards | 3,185 (7th) |
Pass TDs | 23 (4th) |
Pass TD% | 6.9% (1st) |
Completion rate | 70.2% (1st) |
Yards/att | 9.6 (1st) |
Yards/comp | 13.7 (1st) |
Passer rating | 116.1 (1st) |
QBR | 75.6 (1st) |
Although Purdy’s volume statistics may not be as impressive as those of the league leaders, he stands out as the most efficient passer in the NFL when considering all traditional metrics. Furthermore, advanced statistics also back up his exceptional performance.
Furthermore, Purdy is dominating in adjusted net yards per attempt with a staggering 9.14, a comprehensive metric that factors in touchdowns, interceptions, sacks, and passing yardage. He is also leading the league in passing success rate at 54.9% and passing DVOA at 48.7%, trailing only three other MVP winners in the history of the NFL.
Additionally, the statistics QBR and passing TD% in the table have shown a strong correlation with MVP winners in the last twenty years.
After running backs won back-to-back MVP awards in 2005-06, quarterbacks have dominated the award in the last 16 seasons, with 15 quarterbacks taking home the honor. Among those winners, 14 ranked in the top three in QBR and 10 led the league in QBR, with each of the past five winners achieving this feat.
The top five quarterbacks also topped the NFL in passing touchdown rate, a statistic that has been a key factor in determining the MVP winner in 10 out of the last 16 seasons. Surprisingly, 18 out of the last 26 quarterbacks to win the award led the league in passing TD%, with only two ranking outside of the top five.
Purdy’s resume closely mirrors that of a MVP winner, with key indicators such as team success. In fact, 22 out of the last 26 MVP winners have won at least 12 games, a milestone that the 49ers (9-3) could achieve in the final five weeks of the season.
Why Purdy faces scrutiny for 2023 NFL MVP case
Based solely on the statistics provided, Purdy could be argued as the most productive player in 2023.
The point at which his candidacy starts to unravel is when considering his worth.
Mike Sando of The Athletic made a case for Purdy’s MVP candidacy by pointing out that 48.5% of his passing yards have come after the catch. While this is slightly higher than the NFL average of 47%, it falls short of the percentages achieved by the last three MVP winners, including Patrick Mahomes in 2022 (54%).
He neglected to mention that Purdy leads the league with 6.6 YAC per completion, marking the fifth time in the last six seasons that a 49ers QB has topped this metric. This includes Garoppolo achieving this feat in each of the past two years under coach Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly system.
Purdy’s supporters highlight his impressive league-leading completion rate (70.2%) and yards per attempt (9.6) as proof of his ability to push the ball down the field effectively, but this alone does not paint the full picture.
As Week 14 begins, Purdy is ranked 14th in intended air yards per attempt with 7.9. He is also tied for 20th in average depth of target at 8.3 among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. Furthermore, he ranks 22nd in the percentage of throws that travel at least 20 yards downfield at 11.4%.
Purdy has faced challenges when under pressure and during traditional dropbacks, highlighting his dependence on external factors.
When given a clean pocket, the 49ers QB leads in passer rating (131.6) and adjusted completion percentage (86.8%), with the seventh-best passing grade (91.0) among QBs with at least 50 attempts. However, when under duress, their rankings drop to seventh in passer rating (84.3), 17th in adjusted completion rate (66%), and 21st in passing grade (51.6).
Purdy is one of the most successful NFL quarterbacks at using play action, ranking second among all starters in the difference between his completion rate with play action (80.5%) and without it (67.1%). Additionally, he is ranked 17th in passing grade (69.8) on traditional dropbacks.
The numbers continue to decline after that. Despite being ranked 23rd in pass attempts with 332, Purdy is tied for ninth in turnover-worthy plays with 15. His bad-throw percentage is the 14th highest in the NFL at 15.8%, and his on-target throw percentage of 69.9% ranks 26th out of 32 qualified passers, placing him at the bottom among legitimate MVP contenders.
History against Purdy winning 2023 NFL MVP
Purdy’s statistical argument weakens under scrutiny and he faces challenges against historical trends seen among past NFL MVP recipients.
Let’s not ignore the obvious. Many talent evaluators do not consider Purdy to be on the same level as his competitors in the 2023 MVP race. History shows that this factor does play a significant role in determining the winner of the award.
After Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders won his only MVP award in 2002, Tom Brady is the only player in the past two decades to receive the award despite being drafted outside the first round. Brady didn’t win his first MVP award until 2007, after already securing three Super Bowl victories and three Pro Bowl selections.
Kurt Warner won his second MVP award for the St. Louis Rams a year before Gannon’s award-winning season. Their offense was considered the best ever seen at that time. Warner, the only undrafted player in NFL history to win an MVP trophy in the award’s 66-year history, achieved this feat in 1999 and 2001.
Purdy faces a clear obstacle in being named the NFL’s most valuable player, as it’s nearly impossible to achieve this honor without being recognized as the top player on your own team.
Out of the 15 quarterbacks who have won this award since 2007, only six had a teammate who rushed for over 1,000 yards, and none had a teammate with over 1,200 yards. Purdy is likely to have Christian McCaffrey as his running mate, who leads the league in rushing yards (1,032) and total touchdowns (17) and has better MVP odds than Purdy himself. McCaffrey’s odds are currently as short as +1500 at Caesars.
McCaffrey, along with two other 49ers players, is ranked in the top 25 for yards after the catch. Leading the group is Deebo Samuel, who is ranked 17th in YAC with 370 yards and tied for 15th in broken tackles with six. Despite missing two full games and leaving early in another, Samuel’s absence coincided with arguably the three worst games of Purdy’s career.
Purdy struggled to generate offense for his team during Weeks 6 to 8 of the 2023 season, leading them to only 17 points in each game. This was significantly lower than their performance in any other game that year. He completed just 62.5% of his pass attempts and recorded three touchdowns, six turnovers, and a passer rating of 77.9 during this stretch. Unfortunately, the 49ers suffered their only losses of the season in all three games.
Should you bet Brock Purdy to win 2023 NFL MVP?
A few weeks ago, Purdy was seen as a dark-horse candidate with +2500 odds to win NFL MVP. Despite the long shot status, he was recognized as the league’s most efficient passer for a team with aspirations of winning the title.
However, with such low odds, it is difficult to rationalize placing a bet on the NFL’s least skilled player on a team with the most talent. This is especially true when considering his poor performance compared to his All-Pro teammates.
Is there anyone else to consider betting on in this market? The answer is simple: everyone.
This is not just about Purdy, but rather highlights the unpredictable nature of this season’s MVP race, with seven players already being considered favorites at various points in the first 13 weeks. Each of them has a strong case to make as the season enters its final stretch.
In the end, the outcome of this race could be determined by a small number of crucial matchups in the final stretch, a recurring trend in this competition. Josh Allen became the frontrunner in the betting odds by defeating Tua Tagovailoa in Week 4; Hurts surpassed Mahomes after a victory in Week 11; and Purdy bumped Hurts off the MVP rankings following the 49ers’ win in Week 13.
Don’t miss Week 16 as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens head to San Francisco on Christmas Day for a high-stakes game on Monday Night Football. Watch out for Jackson, who is listed at +950 on FanDuel.
The victor of the upcoming prime-time contest could gain a significant advantage in the race to win the award in the remaining weeks. This is similar to the outcome of the upcoming game between Dak Prescott’s Dallas Cowboys and Hurts’ Eagles, which will likely determine the frontrunner for the award on Monday.
Ultimately, the excitement surrounding Purdy’s MVP potential seems to be more about acknowledging his impressive journey in the league rather than truly believing he should be named the most valuable player. Despite his unlikely rise from third-string quarterback to NFL player, it is unlikely that he will actually win the award.
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