Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds Week 6: Thursday Night Football
The upcoming Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 6 of the NFL features the Denver Broncos facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs. Our top prediction for the Broncos-Chiefs game is based on the most favorable NFL odds available.
The Denver Broncos squandered a 13-8 halftime advantage against the New York Jets in Week 5, extending their losing streak to 10 games when holding the lead at halftime, with three of those losses occurring this season.
However, the Kansas City Chiefs have now won four games in a row, with three of them being decided by just one possession. They currently have a 1.5-game lead in the AFC West.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has yet to lose a game against the Broncos, holding a flawless 11-0 record. Additionally, Kansas City has continued their dominance with 15 straight wins over the Broncos, making it the third-longest winning streak in NFL history.
Starting our NFL predictions for Week 6, we present our top Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football. Check out the best NFL Week 6 odds and player props, with confidence levels rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, based on TNF odds from our recommended NFL betting sites.
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Thursday Night Football
Under 51.5 (-112 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Updated Editor’s note: The total for the Broncos-Chiefs game has risen to 47.5 at most reputable sportsbooks, with the majority offering standard -110 odds on both sides. The only exception is Caesars, which is still at 47. Our parlay recommendation is to target this lower total.
Betting on the Under with the Broncos is a risky move, especially considering their recent defensive struggles. Despite giving up 31 points to the Jets without allowing a single touchdown on multiple red-zone possessions, Denver has allowed 28 or more points in four straight games. However, there are still reasons to believe that Thursday night’s game will be lower-scoring than anticipated.
Denver has given up over 171 rushing yards in the last four games, with Breece Hall being the latest player to exploit their defense with 171 rushing yards. The Chiefs, who have a strong rushing offense averaging 123 yards per game, will likely pose another challenge for Denver’s struggling defense, especially since they will likely stick with their nickel defense to defend against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game.
It seems that Travis Kelce’s ankle injury from last week wasn’t too severe, as he came back in the third quarter to score a touchdown. However, there is concern about potential swelling after the game. While Kelce was initially listed as out on Monday’s injury report, he was able to practice and take part in drills on Tuesday.
Sanchez Rhea gives his top NFL player props for Travis Kelce on Thursday night.
Furthermore, the teams are scheduled to face each other twice in the next three weeks. Therefore, it would not be unexpected for the Chiefs to focus more on running the ball and saving some plays in order to prepare for their upcoming game against Denver.
This play is rated three stars because Kansas City’s defense has been strong, allowing only 14.8 points per game during their four-game winning streak and keeping all opponents to 20 points or fewer. Despite Russell Wilson’s impressive 11 touchdown passes, the Broncos quarterback may struggle to increase that total if his defense cannot stop Kansas City and give him enough time on the field during Thursday’s game.
Looking for some excitement during Thursday Night Football? Check out our experts’ player prop picks for the Broncos vs. Chiefs game: Sanchez Rhea for the Broncos, Phil Wood for Patrick Mahomes, and Evans Santiago for anytime and first touchdown scorer predictions.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs best odds
BetRivers (-112)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 51 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
BetRivers offers the highest number for backers among our top five sports betting apps, with a total that is up to a full point higher than its competitors.
Denver has been the second most profitable team for Over bets this season, covering in four out of five games. In contrast, the Under has hit in three out of Kansas City’s five games. The Over has hit in the last three meetings between these teams, with an average margin of 9.7 points.
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds analysis
The initial total at FanDuel on Sunday night was 50.5, but it quickly rose to 51.5 within the first hour before dropping back down by half a point. On the other hand, the total opened higher at 51.5 at BetMGM, but Under supporters caused the line to decrease to 50.5 by Monday morning. Early bets are leaning 75/25 in favor of the Over.
All of our top sports betting websites agree that Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite, with FanDuel offering the highest odds (-115) for betting on the favorites. Despite no movement in the NFL Week 6 odds, there is a possibility of change soon, as 85% of early bets have supported the Chiefs. Mahomes has a 44-44-1 ATS record as a favorite, but is only 10-13-1 ATS when his teams are favored by double digits.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 82 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SSE
Prediction for the Broncos-Chiefs game on 10/9/23 was made at 6:29 a.m. ET.
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