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Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 4: Points at a Premium in Division Battle

Brooks Octavia

Updated on October 1, 2023 at 12:32 PM EDT • Read time: 2 minutes and 50 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints features in our Buccaneers vs. Saints predictions
Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints calls a play during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sept. 24. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

We based our Buccaneers vs. Saints game predictions on the latest NFL odds. Despite a shoulder injury last week, Derek Carr is expected to start for New Orleans.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday in a highly anticipated divisional matchup. Both teams currently hold a 2-1 record in the competitive NFC South, making this Week 4 showdown crucial in determining early dominance in the division.

Below is our top prediction for the Buccaneers vs. Saints matchup along with our NFL picks, with odds sourced from our trusted NFL betting sites. Our confidence level in each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction

1st-half total Under 19.5 (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Over/Under for this game is 40.5 points, which is one of the lowest totals of Week 4. In the last three matchups between these teams, the final scores have all been well below this total (NO 9-0 in 2021, TB 20-10, and TB 17-16 in 2022).

The Saints and Bucs are both scoring under 20 points per game this season. The Saints have an average of 17.7 points per game and have not scored more than 20 in any game yet. The Bucs are averaging 19.3 points per game, even though they have faced two of the worst defenses in the league in Minnesota and Chicago.

Both teams have a slower playing style, as they are both ranked in the bottom half of the league in plays per game (Tampa Bay with 60 and New Orleans with 66) and yards per play (Tampa Bay with 4.7 and New Orleans with 4.8).

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Saints quarterback Derek Carr plans to play in the next game despite sustaining an AC joint injury last Sunday.

Despite being fully healthy, Carr has had difficulty scoring points. The Saints only managed to score six points in the first half of both Week 1 and Week 2. However, they were able to take a 17-0 lead at halftime against the Packers.

The Saints and Bucs are both ranked in the top 10 for defense, with each team allowing less than 20 points per game.

Instead of wagering on the unpredictable game total that could be determined by last-minute dramatics, we are honing in on the first-half total. In the previous three meetings between these teams, there were 13, 3, and 6 points scored in the first half.

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Buccaneers vs. Saints best odds

FanDuel (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
1st-half total Under 19.51st-half total Under 19.51st-half total Under 19.51st-half total Under 19.51st-half total Under 19.5
-115+100-105-105-105

The price of this prop fluctuates among different sports betting apps, but only one book is offering even odds. This makes FanDuel the clear choice for our first-half total bet.

Buccaneers vs. Saints odds

Buccaneers vs. Saints odds analysis

The Saints were originally favored by 3.5 points and have received 67% of the bets, causing the spread to now range between -3 and -3.5 at our top sports betting websites.

The opening total of 40.5 has received significant Over bets, but books are now lowering the Over/Under to 39.5. The initial first-half total of 20.5 has dropped to 19.5, indicating that betting on the Under is the smarter choice.

Buccaneers vs. Saints game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

Prediction for Buccaneers vs. Saints made on Thursday at 11:46 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Brooks Octavia
Brooks Octavia is a Publishing Editor for Underscoreg Review, providing coverage on NFL and college football. Prior to joining SBR, he covered football as an NFL editor at theScore. Mike has more than 15 years of experience in the journalism industry as a writer and editor. Mike enjoys a good futures bet and to hammer live in-game odds. While his favorite bet was Julian Edelman Super Bowl LIII MVP at +4000, his biggest regret was cashing out a Lamar Jackson 2019 MVP bet in Week 8, a week before he cemented the award with his highlight-reel rushing TD against the Bengals.