Chiefs vs. Packers Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 13: Sunday Night Football
In Week 13, Sunday Night Football will showcase two teams vying for a spot in the playoffs. We’ve got you covered with our predictions for the Chiefs vs. Packers game, using the top SNF odds available at our recommended sportsbooks.
As Week 13 begins, the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) are among three teams chasing the Baltimore Ravens (9-3) by just half a game for the top seed in the AFC.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are looking to even out their win-loss record at .500 as they strive to catch up to the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) and Seattle Seahawks (6-6) by just half a game for the final NFC playoff spot.
The Packers, who were 8.5-point underdogs, pulled off a surprising victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, making it the third-largest upset on the holiday since 1970.
Along with our player props and parlay for the Chiefs vs. Packers NFL game, we are also providing our top prediction for Sunday Night Football between the Chiefs and Packers. Our confidence in this pick is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale, with odds obtained from our recommended NFL betting sites.
Be sure to check out our Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, Travis Kelce player props, and Jordan Love props to enhance your SNF experience.
Chiefs vs. Packers prediction: Sunday Night Football
Under 42.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This season, one of the most profitable trends has been betting on the Under in primetime games. Since Week 12, the Under has a record of 10-3 in Sunday Night Football games and 19-3 in the last 22 primetime games overall. This trend has continued since Week 5 of Monday Night Football, with the Under hitting in every game. Going back to Week 13 of last season, the Under has an impressive record of 41-12 in all primetime games.
This is not a random bet on the Under at any of our top sportsbooks, as various factors suggest a low-scoring game is likely between these teams.
To begin with, the passing game in Kansas City has not been as dynamic as it was with Mahomes at the helm. The highest receiving yards for a Chiefs wide receiver last season was 84 by Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 7, until Rashee Rice surpassed that with 107 yards in the most recent game.
Prior to that, the Chiefs had played 20 straight games without a wide receiver reaching 100-plus receiving yards. This contributed to Mahomes being on track for career-lows in yards per pass attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate, while his interception rate of 2.4% was at a career-high, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Green Bay’s offensive potential is limited when going up against the Chiefs, who are the only team in the NFL to consistently allow 24 points or fewer in every game this season.
After throwing three passing touchdowns in his third career game, Packers quarterback Jordan Love is on a roll. All of his touchdowns last week were against man coverage, bringing his season total to a 15-0 TD-INT ratio against man coverage.
However, as Week 12 approached, Kansas City’s use of man coverage had dropped to just 32%, and we anticipate that it will decrease even further due to Love’s effectiveness against it.
Our top sportsbooks rate this as a four-star play because the Chiefs are among the best in the league in several defensive categories. They were tied for the second-fewest yards per attempt allowed, ranked fourth in defensive DVOA, and had the best third-down defense, allowing opponents fewer than three yards per play.
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Chiefs vs. Packers best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 42.5 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Under (-112) | Under (-114) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
As supporters of the Under, we are willing to pay a little extra at FanDuel for an additional half-point, especially considering that DraftKings charges more than the typical -110 price for backing the Under on a lower total. It is worth noting some intriguing in-game trends related to the Chiefs that bettors should be aware of and potentially capitalize on using our top sports betting apps: Kansas City was 10-0 to the second half Under and 10-0 to the fourth quarter Under in last week’s game against the Raiders.
Chiefs vs. Packers odds for Sunday Night Football
Chiefs vs. Packers odds analysis
Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all saw their total lines move in a similar pattern, starting with a half or full point increase from the opening numbers before being adjusted back down to the original figures.
The majority of early wagers, 77%, have been placed on the Over, so any movement on the Under is likely due to sharp action trying to bring the number back down. The Under has a 6-1 record in Kansas City’s last seven games. Use our FanDuel promo code to get the best price on the Under bet.
Our top sports betting apps all agree that Kansas City is favored by 6.5 points. However, FanDuel is offering the Chiefs at a slightly higher price of -118 compared to the standard vig. FanDuel adjusted their line from -7 to -6.5, while DraftKings and BetMGM also had the Chiefs at -7 at certain times before the line moved down to -6.5 due to support for the Packers.
Given that the early bets are 3/1 in favor of the Chiefs, it is likely that the spread will return to -7 at many of our top sports betting apps. Green Bay has won four of its last five games as underdogs at home.
Chiefs vs. Packers bonus codes
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 39 degrees, 39% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph S
Prediction for Chiefs vs Packers made on Tuesday at 4:22 p.m. ET.
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