C.J. Stroud NFL Player Props, Odds Week 13: Predictions for Broncos vs. Texans
In Week 13, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud aims to build on his impressive rookie season as he faces the Denver Broncos. Be sure to check out our top C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions, crafted using the latest NFL odds from our top sportsbooks.
After dominating the first 12 weeks of the season, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has established himself as the frontrunner for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award and has also emerged as a strong contender for the NFL MVP title.
The rookie quarterback aims to continue his success against the Denver Broncos, who have improved defensively in recent weeks. Will they be able to stop Stroud, or will the rookie quarterback once again outshine their secondary?
A victory for Stroud and the Texans would greatly enhance Houston’s playoff standing and further solidify the rookie’s impressive award-worthy season.
Here are our top C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for the Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans game, along with our predictions for the game and player props. Odds are from our top NFL betting sites, and confidence levels are rated on a 1 to 5-star scale.
C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for Week 13
- C.J. Stroud longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud Over 33.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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C.J. Stroud player props
C.J. Stroud longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
In his analysis of NFL Week 13 player props and top bets, Allen Byron highlighted the significant improvement in the Broncos’ pass defense in recent weeks. Following a rough start in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins, the Broncos now rank among the top teams in the league in various defensive metrics.
One major concern that still persists? Explosive plays.
As Week 13 begins, Denver is ranked 30th in allowing explosive plays and 18th in allowing explosive pass plays. The Broncos also rank 25th in opponent yards per attempt at 7.0 and have the third-worst success rate in the NFL at 43.1%, which has increased to 45.2% since Week 6 despite some signs of improvement in other metrics.
The Texans’ offense is ranked second in explosive pass play rate, with Stroud being second in yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per completion (13.1). In his last four games and seven of his 11 starts, he has completed at least one pass of 34-plus yards, not counting the recent moonshot from last week.
The prop total is slightly higher than that number, but Stroud has exceeded it twice in the past four weeks and has a favorable matchup this week. Anticipate at least one deep pass from the rookie quarterback this Sunday.
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C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is not so much about Stroud as it is a recognition of the impressive performance by the Denver defense, which has been generating turnovers at an unprecedented pace in the past two months.
In the first five weeks of the season, the Broncos only forced five turnovers from their opponents. However, in the following six weeks, they managed to generate 14 takeaways, with a particularly impressive three-week period where they had 12 takeaways – the highest number by any team in a three-game span since 1997.
Since Week 6, Denver has forced turnovers on 25% of opposing drives and has intercepted at least one pass in seven of the last eight weeks. Notably, both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen threw multiple interceptions against this defense during that time period.
Stroud had a near-perfect record in his first eight career starts, but has since thrown four interceptions in the past three weeks. He now faces one of the toughest defenses of the season, known for capitalizing on opportunities.
This prop bet offers plus-money odds on our top sports betting apps, with DraftKings offering the best price at +120. Additionally, bet365 allows you to wager on Stroud throwing two interceptions at +600 or three interceptions at +1650, both of which are worth a small bet.
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C.J. Stroud Over 33.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This bet is a simple numbers game on Stroud, who has thrown at least 36 passes in his last four games and has gone over this prop total in seven out of 11 starts this season.
I am puzzled as to why this prop is priced so low considering Stroud’s high volume of plays in the last month. While the Broncos tend to focus on ball control, they have allowed opponents to attempt 35 or more passes in four of the last eight weeks, with the Browns attempting 42 passes just last week.
It would be wise for the Texans to focus more on their running game against the Broncos’ unreliable rush defense. However, it is likely that Stroud will still play a significant role in this crucial game for Houston’s playoff hopes in the AFC.
The prices offered at other top sportsbooks suggest that there is value to be found here as well. The Over is listed at -125 at DraftKings, -127 at Caesars, and -130 at FanDuel, making the -105 price at BetMGM seem like an excellent deal.
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C.J. Stroud’s player prop selections were finalized on December 1, 2023, at 7:45 p.m. Eastern Time.
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