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Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins catches a touchdown against Michael Davis of the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California as we share our favorite Dolphins vs. Patriots pick.
Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins catches a touchdown against Michael Davis of the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images via AFP.

Our top predictions for the Dolphins vs. Patriots game are based on the most recent NFL odds from our top sports betting apps. Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins showed his star power in Week 1, but Bill Belichick, head coach of the New England Patriots, is known for challenging even the best quarterbacks at Gillette Stadium.

It will be a challenge to find a quarterback performance in Week 1 that surpasses the impressive stat line achieved by Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for an outstanding 466 passing yards in the team’s high-scoring win against the Los Angeles Chargers.

On the other hand, the New England Patriots are entering Week 2 after a tough 25-20 defeat at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite holding the defending NFC champions to just three field goals in the second half, the Patriots fell short in the end.

Will the Dolphins replicate their impressive offensive performance from last week on Sunday Night Football, or will Patriots head coach Bill Belichick be able to stifle Miami’s offense and lead New England to a 1-1 record?

Below is our top prediction for the Dolphins vs. Patriots game, as well as our NFL picks, best bets, and upset picks. Our odds are sourced from the best NFL betting sites, and our confidence level is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction

Over 46.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Last week, the Dolphins scored an impressive 36 points against the Chargers, thanks in large part to Tagovailoa’s 466 passing yards. Miami’s total offensive yards of 536 were the highest of any team in Week 1 since 2019. The Dolphins also excelled in making big plays, as none of their seven scoring drives lasted more than five minutes. This performance was a dream come true for those betting on the Over.

While Belichick is known for his defensive expertise, I doubt he can come up with a plan to contain Dolphins running back Tyreek Hill and their offense. In previous matchups, Hill has consistently outperformed the Patriots, scoring six touchdowns in six games. Hill’s recent performance, with 11 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns, proves he is in top form.

In order to prevent an 0-2 start, New England is determined to score points to defeat the Dolphins. Although Miami’s defense was strong against the run last season, they struggled in their first game under new coordinator Vic Fangio, allowing 234 yards and almost six yards per carry. On the other hand, Patriots QB Mac Jones threw for over 300 yards in his first game in Bill O’Brien’s offense, but four turnovers hindered New England from scoring more than 20 points against the Eagles.

The total for this game is in the mid-40s, largely influenced by the recent history of low-scoring games between these AFC East rivals. In four of the last six meetings, the total points scored were under 44. However, this does not accurately represent the current offensive capabilities of both teams. It may be worthwhile to consider betting on the Over, with value seen up to 48.5 points.

One of our top Week 2 NFL player props is New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson surpassing 50.5 rushing yards. Betting analyst Stewart Serena from Underscoreg Review has reviewed the available markets to provide his top picks for Tua Tagovailoa player props.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110
U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110

DraftKings is recommended as the top choice for betting on the Dolphins-Patriots Over, but other leading sports betting apps also offer the same 46.5 -110 price.

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds analysis

Miami started as a 2-point favorite and quickly gained attention from bettors, causing the line to rise to a pricey -2.5 by midweek and even reaching -3 at some sportsbooks. Unless there are any injuries, it’s likely that the line won’t go any higher before the game starts, despite the public’s likely interest in supporting Miami’s strong offense in a prime-time game.

The total remained unchanged at the majority of top sports betting sites, staying at the opening line of 46.5. Popular books such as Caesars and BetMGM had not adjusted their odds in either direction as of Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds

Prediction for Dolphins vs Patriots game on Friday, September 15, 2023 at 10:05 a.m. ET:

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