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Joe Burrow NFL Player Props, Predictions for the AFC Championship: Will Dominance Continue?

Lopez Julia

Updated on January 29, 2023 at 4:17 PM EST • Read time: 2 min 35 sec. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals scrambles against the Kansas City Chiefs at Paycor Stadium on Dec. 4, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals scrambles against the Kansas City Chiefs at Paycor Stadium on Dec. 4, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

Joe Burrow has a perfect record against the Kansas City Chiefs in his career. Will he be able to maintain this winning streak at Burrowhead on Sunday? Check out our top Joe Burrow NFL player props with the most favorable NFL odds.

The debate continued all week: Can Burrow’s win against the Chiefs put him on the same level as AFC Championship Game rival Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback for Kansas City?

Check out our top Joe Burrow NFL player props for the AFC Championship game (odds provided by FanDuel and DraftKings). Confidence ratings range from 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our predictions for the Bengals vs. Chiefs game, player prop bets for both teams, and Patrick Mahomes’ individual player prop bets in the NFL.

Joe Burrow NFL player props for the AFC Championship

  • Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow Over 2+ passing touchdowns (-180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

Take a look at our odds for the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP.

Joe Burrow player props

Joe Burrow Under 279.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs typically allow over 220 opponent passing yards per game, but have only given up more than 280 passing yards once since November 1. That feat was accomplished by Burrow during a Cincinnati home game. Will he be able to replicate those results in a game at Arrowhead Stadium?

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During last year’s AFC Championship Game at the same venue, Burrow only threw for 250 yards, but it was enough to defeat the Chiefs. A similar scenario may play out on Sunday, with the Bengals aiming to control possession by utilizing running back Joe Mixon, just like they did against the Buffalo Bills last week.

It appears that this statement may be exaggerated, as Burrow has not surpassed 250 passing yards per game since Christmas Eve. This is not meant to criticize Burrow, but rather to suggest that Cincinnati may not require him to perform exceptionally in order to remain competitive. For the most advantageous odds, it is recommended to bet on the Under at DraftKings (279.5 yards, -115) instead of FanDuel (277.5 yards, -114).

Joe Burrow Over 17.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Burrow is agile in the pocket, but he is not typically associated with running quarterbacks. However, he possesses the ability to make plays when it counts most and secure victories in crucial moments.

He carried the ball a season-high 11 times for 46 yards in a victory against the Chiefs earlier this year. In the AFC Championship Game in 2022, he had five carries for 25 yards. Last week against Buffalo, he rushed six times for 31 yards. It’s evident that he has a strong running game that he can rely on when necessary.

With Burrow likely to have another strong rushing performance, the line of 17.5 rushing yards at -114 odds is very appealing. This is more favorable than the alternate line of 20+ yards at -115 odds on DK. If the odds increase to 20.5 rushing yards or higher, this bet would be a four-star play.

Joe Burrow 2+ passing touchdowns (-180) ⭐⭐⭐

With Burrow’s consistent passing performances this season, this prop bet on Sunday is a strong opportunity to increase your bankroll.

In five out of six games where Burrow threw less than two touchdowns this year, the total points scored were below 45. When facing matchups with a total of more than 45 points, Burrow had a success rate of 8 out of 9 on this line. On the other hand, the Chiefs gave up the most passing touchdowns of any NFL team this season with a total of 33.

Although the odds may not be the most appealing, it is important to maximize your ROI by choosing DraftKings’ line (-180) over FanDuel’s Over 1.5 passing TDs (-188) option. If the odds drop to -160 or lower, this would be considered a four-star play.

Player prop picks for Joe Burrow were made on January 27, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Lopez Julia
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Lopez Julia has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts ‘The Big Show’ on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.