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Jaguars-Chiefs Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Prop Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Who Wins QB Battle?

Lopez Julia

Updated on January 21, 2026 at 7:02 AM EST • Read time: 2 minutes and 59 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs hugs Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars after the Chiefs defeated the Jaguars 27-17 at Arrowhead Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – NOVEMBER 13: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs hugs Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars after the Chiefs defeated the Jaguars 27-17 at Arrowhead Stadium on November 13, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence be able to secure another surprising victory by defeating the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes this Saturday? Keep reading for our player prop picks for Lawrence vs. Mahomes, based on the top NFL Odds for the Divisional Round matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs.

After a disappointing rookie season, Trevor Lawrence has turned things around by guiding the Jacksonville Jaguars to an AFC South championship and a win in the Wild Card Round. As they prepare to face the tough competition at Arrowhead Stadium, Lawrence has a fearless attitude and plenty of potential for success in Saturday’s game.

Patrick Mahomes is eager to begin his playoff journey with the goal of leading his Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) back to the Super Bowl.

These are our top player prop picks for the Lawrence vs. Mahomes showdown in the Jaguars vs. Chiefs Divisional Round game, with odds from Caesars and FanDuel. Confidence in each pick is rated on a scale from 1 to 5 stars.

Take a look at our predictions for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs game, player prop picks, and same game parlay.

Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Prop Picks for Division Round

  • Mahomes Over 308.5 Passing Yards (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Take a look at our odds for the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP.

Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Props

Mahomes Over 308.5 passing yards vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jaguars rank fifth in the NFL by allowing an average of 239.5 passing yards per game. Mahomes has surpassed this mark in nine of his last 11 games, throwing for 331 yards against Jacksonville earlier this year. Even if the Chiefs build a big lead in the second half, I don’t think they will switch to a run-heavy offense. That goes against Andy Reid’s typical approach.

Three sportsbooks we are partnered with are offering the Mahomes passing line at 308.5 yards. However, only Caesars is providing odds as strong as -106, while DraftKings and BetMGM have odds at -115. It is advised for over bettors to steer clear of the 310.5-yard lines at FanDuel and PointsBet.

Editor’s note: As of Saturday afternoon, Caesars is offering the best odds for Mahomes Over 309.5 passing yards at -106.

Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes has thrown for three or more touchdown passes in 8 out of 17 games this season, but has only accomplished this feat twice in his last seven games. The Jaguars defense has allowed 25 passing touchdowns compared to 14 rushing touchdowns this year. However, I anticipate that Andy Reid will use a trick play on the goal line to prevent Mahomes from adding another passing touchdown to his stat line.

Caesars has the best odds at -123 for an Under 2.5 passing touchdowns bet, with PointsBet close behind at -125. DraftKings and BetMGM are also good options at -130. It’s best to avoid FanDuel’s odds of -148, but if you want to go against the pick, FanDuel has the top odds at +112 for Over 2.5. This becomes a three-star play if the odds go above -130.

Note from the editor: As of Saturday afternoon, the best odds for Mahomes to have under 2.5 passing touchdowns are -106 on FanDuel.

Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even though Lawrence has only thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight out of his 18 games this season, he has a chance to do so against a Chiefs secondary that has given up a league-leading 33 passing touchdowns. Kansas City has only allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the fifth-lowest in the league. With the likelihood of Lawrence playing catch-up, I anticipate the young quarterback taking more shots downfield, especially when the offense is in scoring position.

FanDuel is offering Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Lawrence with appealing -118 odds. BetMGM has a slightly higher -125 listing, which is still reasonable. It is recommended to steer clear of DraftKings (-140), Caesars (-133), and PointsBet (-130) for an Over bet on this prop as their odds are not as competitive.

Editor’s note: On Saturday afternoon, the most favorable odds for Lawrence to have over 1.5 passing touchdowns are -113 on FanDuel.

Player prop picks for Lawrence vs. Mahomes were made on January 20, 2026 at 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Lopez Julia
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Lopez Julia has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts ‘The Big Show’ on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.