NFL Odds, Lines Week 10: Colts Backers Inspired by Jeff Saturday
Can Jeff Saturday, the new head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, make a difference in turning around the team’s season? Let’s take a look at the NFL odds and lines for Week 10 to see where the point spreads and totals might be headed.
As offensive play-caller Parks Frazier and quarterback Sam Ehlinger make their debut in the NFL together on Saturday, they may not seem like a winning duo to bet on. However, the market might surprise you with how the point spread for the Colts in Week 10 against the Las Vegas Raiders is shaping up.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 10, along with our predictions for how the lines may change over the course of the week (odds from FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, and Caesars).
As of Monday, November 7th at 5:30 p.m., all projected spread and totals were sourced from DraftKings.
Take a look at our NFL Week 10 betting options, including odds and lines, against-the-spread picks, and a three-leg parlay!
NFL Week 10 Odds and Lines
Falcons vs. Panthers
Spread: Falcons -2.5
The Atlanta Falcons narrowly defeated the Carolina Panthers 37-34 in Week 8 after overtime, but both teams suffered losses in Week 9. The initial spread of Atlanta -1.5 against Carolina increased to -2.5 early in the week, but has not changed since Panthers QB PJ Walker was announced as the starter. It is likely that the line will eventually settle at Falcons -3 due to growing support for Atlanta.
Over/Under: 41.5
These teams scored a total of 71 points in Week 8, which increased from the initial estimate of 41.5 to 42.5 early in the week. Despite the initial move towards the Over, the total has been adjusted from 43.5 to 41.5 due to anticipated bad weather for Thursday’s game.
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3
The Seattle Seahawks, with a 6-3 record, are still managing to shock fans. They have been consistently beating the spread this season, but there are worries about the team’s potential jet lag after playing in Arizona last week and now facing the Buccaneers in Munich, Germany. The Buccaneers are currently favored by 3 points, receiving a majority of the bets after initially being favored by 1.5 points.
Over/Under: 44.5
The total for this game has already decreased by 2 points from the initial line, with the Under hitting in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games. Additionally, the Seahawks have to travel further to the game in Munich compared to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay also boasts one of the top defenses in the league. Their offense has only scored an average of 14.75 points per game in the last four weeks, which explains the drop in the total. If the total falls into the range of 43-44 points, I anticipate there will be some betting activity on the Over.
Vikings vs. Bills
Spread: Bills -3.5
Following their Week 9 loss to the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills were initially favored by 8.5 points over the Minnesota Vikings for Week 10. However, a significant shift occurred when it was revealed that Bills QB Josh Allen would likely be sidelined due to an elbow injury. As a result, the spread dropped from Bills -8.5 to Bills -3.5 as this news circulated throughout the industry.
Over/Under: 43.5
Allen’s injury is just one of the factors that has led to a notable decrease in the overall total. The upcoming game between the Bills and the Vikings on Sunday is expected to have cold temperatures, wind, and snow. Coupled with the potential for Case Keenum to start and unfavorable weather conditions, the total has been lowered from 48.5 to 43.5.
Lions vs. Bears
Spread: Bears -2.5
The Chicago Bears have given up 84 points in their last two games and are now favored by 2.5 points against a division rival. Quarterback Justin Fields had a strong performance in the last game, but the Detroit Lions are also struggling. Despite this, the spread has increased from -1.5 to -2.5, which may deter bettors from backing the Bears. If the spread reaches -3, it is likely that support for the Lions will increase.
Over/Under: 48.5
Both teams have struggled defensively this season, leading to an increase in the projected total from 45.5 to 48.5 due to Fields’ improved performance. Detroit’s offense has shown flashes but has only scored five touchdowns in their last four games. The total of 48 points is not close to key numbers like 51 or the range of 43-44, so it may change throughout the week. However, I do not expect it to reach the key numbers mentioned.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
The spread has remained unchanged from the opening number, indicating its accuracy. The Kansas City Chiefs narrowly defeated the Tennessee Titans in overtime despite being heavy favorites in Week 9. The Jacksonville Jaguars also made an impressive comeback to end their losing streak and defeat the Las Vegas Raiders. Given these recent results, I anticipate the Chiefs will receive strong support against the Jaguars, who have a record of 3-6, and are currently trading below the key number of 10.
Over/Under: 50.5
The total opened at 49 and quickly garnered support for the Over, causing the line to increase to 50.5. Since 51 is a significant number, I anticipate there will be a resurgence of interest in the Under if it surpasses that threshold.
Browns vs. Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
The Miami Dolphins have only covered the spread in one of their last five games, while the Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye week after a strong 32-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 8. Miami’s defense has been struggling, as evidenced by the spread dropping from -5.5 to -4 after their game against the Chicago Bears. The spread now favors the Browns, with the Dolphins trading as 3.5-point favorites.
Over/Under: 49.5
The Miami defense has shown vulnerability by giving up a total of 59 points to the Lions and Bears in the last two games. The Browns haven’t been much better, ranking ninth in points allowed per game. Both teams have strong offenses, so it’s not shocking that the total has increased from an initial line of 46.5. In Week 9, 76% of bets were placed on the Over in the Dolphins-Bears game. With Cleveland coming off a bye and Miami’s offense in good form, I anticipate even more support for the Over in this matchup.
Texans vs. Giants
Spread: Giants -5
There is a range of spreads available, with the New York Giants favored by 4 to 5.5 points. It is unclear where this number will end up, but I believe it will settle at Giants -5 due to strong support for the Houston Texans in the markets.
Over/Under: 40.5
The initial total of 38.5 has increased by 2 points to 40.5, with some sportsbooks even moving it to 41, indicating that it may continue to rise.
Saints vs. Steelers
Spread: Saints -1.5
The New Orleans Saints were initially favored by 2.5 points over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the line has since shifted to 1.5 points. It comes as no surprise to me that the Saints are now only 1-point favorites over the Steelers in Week 10. I anticipate that the spread could ultimately settle at Saints -1.
Over/Under: 40
The Saints had been averaging 66.5 points in their previous four games before their 24-0 victory over the Raiders in Week 8. On the other hand, the Steelers have only seen the Over hit in one of their past four games, thanks to the Eagles scoring 35 points against them in Week 8. Despite little movement in the total throughout the week, I anticipate this trend to persist leading up to Sunday’s game.
Broncos vs. Titans
Spread: Titans -2.5
The Denver Broncos have yet to win a game on the road this season, while the Titans surprised by taking the Chiefs to overtime as double-digit underdogs on Sunday Night Football. Despite expectations for the market to favor the Titans, it is actually supporting the Broncos, causing the line to shift from Titans -3 to a different number. Personally, I have the Titans as 1.5-point favorites over the Broncos, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the line continues to move in Denver’s direction.
Over/Under: 36.5
In the last five games, the Titans have gone Under, while the Broncos have gone Under in their last four games. With a look-ahead total of 40, the recent trend of both teams suggests a 3.5-point dip. Additionally, both defenses have been strong this season, and Tennessee has the slowest pace of play on offense in the league. Therefore, it is possible that Over bets may be scarce unless the total drops even further.
Colts vs. Raiders
Spread: Raiders -4.5
It seems illogical to support the Colts given their recent coaching decisions and new offensive play-caller. Despite this, a surprising number of people are backing them. The Raiders, who were initially favored by 6.5 points, are now only favored by 4.5 points. This shift may be more of a reflection on Raiders coach Josh McDaniels than a show of confidence in the Colts’ Saturday, Ehlinger.
Over/Under: 41.5
Considering the Colts’ recent struggles on offense, especially in their last three games, it’s hard to see how the Over bettors will be convinced to support them. With Indy playing their second straight road game and third in four weeks, it’s unlikely that enough money will be placed on the Over to keep the total above the key range of 40-41. Unless there’s a standout performance from the Las Vegas offense, it’s doubtful that the Over will be a popular choice for this matchup.
Cowboys vs. Packers
Spread: Cowboys -4.5
At the beginning of the week, the Dallas Cowboys were favored by 5 points, leading bettors to consider betting on the Green Bay Packers. However, as the week went on, the spread shifted from Cowboys -5 to Cowboys -4.5. It seems unlikely that the line will reach Cowboys -5 again, as that number is considered slightly too high for the Cowboys to be valued at.
Over/Under: 43
The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL based on statistics, and in Week 9, they defeated Green Bay 16-9. Aaron Rodgers’ two interceptions in the red zone, and three in total, significantly hindered the Packers’ offense. The initial predicted total for the game was 44.5, but I anticipate that there will be betting activity pushing the number up to the key range of 43-44, likely favoring the Over.
Cardinals vs. Rams
Spread: Rams -1.5
The Los Angeles Rams have suffered back-to-back losses and only managed to score a total of 27 points against the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their Week 7 bye. Oddsmakers are now favoring the Rams against the Arizona Cardinals, who have lost four of their last five games. The Rams previously defeated the Cardinals 20-12 in Arizona in Week 3. While the evaluation seems valid, it is unlikely that Los Angeles will receive enough betting support to maintain the line at Rams -3, especially since this will be the second time these division rivals face off this season.
Over/Under: 40.5
This week, I am particularly interested in following the total for the upcoming Arizona vs Los Angeles game. Arizona has seen the Over hit in each of their last four games, while Los Angeles has only gone over the total in two out of eight games this season. In their previous matchup in Week 3, the Rams defeated the Cardinals 20-12 with a total of 48.5. Despite the potential for the Rams to improve offensively, the market seems to have little faith in it this week, evident by the line dropping from 43.5 to 40.5. The decrease in total and spread may be due to Matthew Stafford entering concussion protocol.
Chargers vs. 49ers
Spread: 49ers -7
The spread for this game has seen the most significant change leading up to Week 9 compared to any other. Initially, San Francisco was favored by 4 points, but after the Los Angeles Chargers pulled off a 20-17 comeback win against the Falcons in Week 9, the spread has shifted. Despite missing key starters on both offense and defense, the Chargers managed to secure the victory on the road. As the 49ers are coming off their bye week and potentially getting some key players back, it is likely that the spread, currently at 49ers -6.5, will move to -7. San Francisco showed a strong performance in Week 8, and with the possibility of key players returning, they could continue their momentum.
Over/Under: 45.5
The spread is currently positioned between 43-44 and below the key number of 51, leaving ample flexibility for its next direction. It has dropped from the initial total of 47.5 and has been steadily decreasing over the week. The upcoming injury reports for both teams will play a significant role in influencing the trajectory of this number as game day approaches.
Commanders vs. Eagles
Spread: Eagles -11
The Washington Commanders have been playing well in recent weeks, winning three of their last four games and putting up a good fight against the Vikings in a 20-17 loss in Week 9. However, they face a tough challenge in the undefeated Eagles, who have not seen any movement in the spread since their previous matchup where they defeated Washington 24-8 in Week 3. With the Eagles playing at home and coming off a mini-bye after a 29-17 win over the Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, it is likely that more bettors will support them and the spread will increase as we approach the Monday Night Football game.
Over/Under: 44
Another intriguing total to keep an eye on this week will be the upcoming game between Philadelphia and Washington. Philadelphia has surpassed the total in four of their last five games, while Washington has seen the Under hit in six of their past seven contests. This upcoming game will have the highest total in a Washington game since the two teams faced off in Week 3, where the total was set at 47.5 points. As Monday Night Football approaches, I expect this total to fall within the range of 43-44 points and stay there.
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