Packers vs. Lions NFL Player Props, Odds for Thanksgiving: Picks & Predictions
On Thanksgiving Day, the NFL kicks off with the long-standing tradition of the Detroit Lions taking on the Green Bay Packers in the first game of the day. We provide the top player props for the Packers vs. Lions matchup in Week 12, using the most favorable NFL odds available.
The Green Bay Packers improved to 4-6 in Week 11 after a tough 23-20 win against the Los Angeles Chargers. This game stood out as their first without a turnover since Week 2, highlighting better ball security. Moreover, the Packers scored 23 points, their highest in a single game since Week 2, showcasing an impressive offensive performance.
This year’s Detroit team, with an 8-2 record, is the most talented to host a Thanksgiving Day game since 1962. In their last game, the Lions were trailing the Chicago Bears 26-14 with 4:15 left, but managed to score 17 points in the final 2:59 to win. With a 2.5-game lead in the NFC North going into Week 12, Detroit is looking to achieve their first five-game winning streak against the Packers since 1949-54.
In addition to our prediction for the Packers vs. Lions game and our NFL player props and best bets for Thanksgiving, we are also sharing our top NFL player props for the Packers vs. Lions matchup in Week 12. Odds are sourced from our preferred NFL betting sites, and pick confidence is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Packers vs. Lions NFL player props: Thanksgiving
Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-124 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Despite the Lions defeating the Packers 34-20 in Week 4, Jared Goff had a subpar game with season-lows in completions (19) and passing yards (210). Detroit scored four rushing touchdowns and Goff only attempted eight passes in the second half after building a big first-half lead. However, we anticipate the Packers will put up a stronger fight in the upcoming game, which could lead to improved passing performance for Goff.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Green Bay utilizes Cover 3 on passing plays at the third-highest rate. Goff has shown exceptional performance against Cover 3, ranking in the top four in yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (104.9). Additionally, he leads the NFL with 11 touchdowns thrown against that specific coverage.
The Packers have only allowed two quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns, while the Lions have the second-highest rate of their scoring plays resulting in touchdowns (71.1%).
This play is rated three stars, as the Over has hit in seven of Detroit’s last 11 Thanksgiving games. With Goff boasting a 20-7 ATS record in his last 27 indoor games, the Lions’ offense is likely to perform well. Bettors should take advantage of the -124 price for the Over at BetRivers, as the same wager carries a higher juice of -151 at Caesars.
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Jordan Love anytime touchdown scorer (+700 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Jordan Love has scored two rushing touchdowns so far this season, with his most recent endzone visit being in Week 4 against Detroit. The Packers are facing injuries to key running backs Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson, prompting them to sign two new players to the practice squad. AJ Dillon has not yet shown he can take on a large workload, so Love may need to step up and contribute to the running game with his mobility.
Love faced the most pressure of the season in Week 4 against the Lions, with pressure on 48.8% of his dropbacks, according to Sharp Football Analysis. His ability to evade pressure was crucial for his success, as he went 17-for-22 for 198 yards when he had a clean pocket against Detroit.
We find the Over of Love’s 14.5 rushing yards appealing, but we are even more drawn to the +700 odds for him to score a rushing touchdown offered through our FanDuel promo code. This is a significant increase from the +350 odds at BetMGM.
Scoring a touchdown would greatly assist the Packers in staying within the 7.5-point spread, a topic we discuss in our Thanksgiving Best Bets.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If we anticipate Goff throwing for two or more touchdowns, we definitely like the attractive odds bet365 is providing for his top receiver to score a touchdown.
St. Brown has been consistently impressive this season, reaching either 100 yards or a touchdown in each game. Despite only making five catches against the Packers in Week 4, the absence of their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, who has missed five of the last 10 games and did not play last week, along with the team trading Rasul Douglas, likely contributed to this lower performance.
With the league’s third-highest target rate at 29.6%, St. Brown should have plenty of opportunities to excel. Additionally, in the previous Cover 3 statistics where Goff performed well, St. Brown is also ranked third in receiving yards with 358 in that split.
A few of our top sports betting apps may not be giving plus-money odds for this bet, but the +110 line at bet365 has us eager to place our bets.
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Player props for the Packers vs. Lions game were set on 11/22/2023 at 6:07 a.m. ET.
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