Packers vs. Lions Prediction, Picks & Odds for Thanksgiving: Will Detroit Continue Historic Start?
The Detroit Lions will be hosting the first Thanksgiving Day game against NFC North rivals, the Green Bay Packers, on Thursday afternoon. We will provide you with our predictions for the Packers vs. Lions matchup, taking into account the top NFL odds.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers earned a hard-fought 23-20 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, handing them their fifth loss of the season by a narrow three-point margin. Quarterback Jordan Love impressed with over 300 passing yards, leading the Packers to their highest scoring game since Week 2 and achieving a significant milestone in his career.
The Detroit Lions are off to their best start since 1962 with an impressive 8-2 record. In a thrilling game last week, they made a comeback against the Chicago Bears, trailing 26-14 with just over four minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Lions scored 17 points in less than three minutes, ultimately winning the game with a one-yard touchdown run by running back David Montgomery with 29 seconds remaining. Our NFL Thanksgiving Parlay predicts that Montgomery will score another touchdown in Week 12.
In addition to our Thanksgiving predictions and NFL player props, we are sharing our top prediction for the Packers vs. Lions game on Thanksgiving. Check out our NFL picks for the holiday and be sure to take a look at our player props for the game with odds from our trusted NFL betting sites. Our picks are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale for confidence.
Packers vs. Lions prediction: Thanksgiving
Over 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Detroit has been victorious in their last seven games against NFC North opponents. It seems probable that they will secure an eighth win against a struggling Green Bay team that has only won one of their five road games. However, the smarter bet would be to take the Over.
Green Bay was lucky to limit Los Angeles to only 20 points last week, with the Rams scoring just one touchdown on four red-zone trips. Additionally, the Packers had their first game without a turnover since Week 2 and have a good chance of extending that streak against the Lions, who are among the bottom nine teams in takeaways.
Given Green Bay’s backfield injuries, Love should focus more on passing the ball than usual. With Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson both dealing with injuries, AJ Dillon will likely take on the primary backfield duties. While he didn’t have a standout performance last week, attacking Detroit through the air is the smarter approach, as they have struggled against the pass. Love will aim to continue his momentum from last week, where he had a strong second half with 12 completions for 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Last week, Lions quarterback Jared Goff showcased some fourth-quarter magic by completing 11 of 14 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. Just two weeks prior, Goff achieved his highest yards per attempt in three seasons with the Lions, while the team also had success running for 200 yards and 6.5 yards per carry. The Lions’ solid offensive line protected Goff well last week, allowing only two sacks. Despite potential pressure from Green Bay, Goff has demonstrated his ability to perform under pressure, ranking in the top 10 in completion percentage and yards per attempt when pressured, with an impressive 12-1 TD-INT ratio according to Sharp Football Analysis. Stay tuned for more on Goff’s passing performance in our discussion of the Packers vs. Lions NFL player props.
This play is rated three stars, as Detroit is expected to have better luck with big plays this week. Despite only two plays of 20-plus yards against Chicago, the team had previously led the league with 49 such plays. Additionally, the Over has hit in 7 out of Detroit’s last 11 Thanksgiving Day games since 2012. Last year, the Over almost hit in a game with a 54-point total (Detroit lost 28-25 to the Buffalo Bills), making it the fourth-highest O/U on Thanksgiving in the past 40 years.
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Packers vs. Lions best odds
FanDuel, Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 45.5 | 46 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) |
Those who prefer betting on the over can choose from three top sports betting apps – FanDuel, Caesars, or bet365, all offering a half-point lower O/U line than other competitors. In the last two games with a total of 46 points or fewer between these teams, the projected total was exceeded. However, in the previous two meetings where the total was 48 points or higher, the under has been the winning bet.
Packers vs. Lions odds for Thanksgiving
Packers vs. Lions odds analysis
The line movement for this game has been towards the Over, with totals at BetMGM and Caesars increasing by half a point since opening. This aligns with early betting trends, with 90% of wagers backing the Over. Most top sports betting sites had the lookahead total at 44.5 points. Green Bay has a 4-6 over/under record, while Detroit has seen the Over hit in six of their 10 games.
Our top sportsbooks have a consensus point spread of Detroit -7.5. Although BetMGM and bet365 initially opened at Detroit -7, Lions supporters quickly bet on that line, causing the spread to shift away from the key number of seven. Detroit is currently the third most profitable team against the spread in the league with a record of 7-3, while Green Bay is 5-5 ATS.
Packers vs. Lions game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 23, at 12:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Prediction for Packers vs. Lions game on 11/20/23 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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