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Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Predictions for the AFC Championship: Will Ankle Be an Issue?

Allen Byron

Updated on January 29, 2026 at 4:12 PM EST • Read time: 3 minutes and 10 seconds. For more information, visit our Twitter and Google News links.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs runs off the field after the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs runs off the field after the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders. Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images/AFP.

Patrick Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Will he be able to lead his team to victory in the AFC Championship Game despite this injury? Check out our top player props for Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game, featuring the best NFL odds.

Mahomes secured his ninth playoff victory last week by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars, making him the second quarterback in NFL history to achieve this milestone within his first six seasons. Additionally, he boasts an impressive 5-0 record in divisional playoff games and an outstanding 11-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The passer and Andy Reid have earned the second-most consecutive championship game appearances (five) as a quarterback-head coach duo, but they are the first to achieve this feat by playing five straight games at home. Mahomes is among seven quarterbacks who have led their teams to at least 50% of their all-time playoff wins.

These are our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for the AFC Championship Game, with odds from BetMGM and DraftKings. Our confidence in each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our comprehensive AFC and NFC Championship predictions, including Bengals vs. Chiefs and 49ers vs. Eagles picks.

Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for the AFC Championship

  • Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards vs. Bengals (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Bengals (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions vs. Bengals (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Want to get a head start on The Big Game? Take a look at our analysis of the possible Super Bowl odds and lines before Championship Weekend, along with our 2026 Super Bowl odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

Take a look at our Super Bowl MVP betting odds.

Patrick Mahomes player prop bets

Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards vs. Bengals (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The main topic of conversation in the AFC Championship Game rematch is Mahomes’s high ankle sprain, which is a significant concern as this type of injury typically requires weeks of recovery. Known for his ability to evade pressure and extend plays with his legs, Mahomes may be limited in his effectiveness this week, potentially impacting his overall performance.

When new users sign up using FanDuel’s promo code and bet on Bengals vs. Chiefs picks, they can receive $150 in bonus bets for a $5 initial bet.

Mahomes has a history of playing through ankle sprains, as he demonstrated in Week 2 of the 2019 season against the Las Vegas Raiders. In that game, he posted a Total QBR of 95, threw for 443 yards, had a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and maintained an average throw time of 2.59 seconds.

Yet, the Bengals’ defense has only allowed an average of 18.2 points per game in the playoffs since 2021, and has held opposing passers to a 77.4 passer rating, surpassing the team’s season averages.

The Over has been successful on Mahomes’ passing yards prop in 11 out of 18 games, but that streak is likely to end against a Cincinnati defense that had the lowest completion rate and passer rating in the regular season. Mahomes’ passing yards prop is set as low as 280.5 at PointsBet, making DraftKings the better option for those betting the Under.

Explore our in-depth analysis of the Bengals-Chiefs odds and discover the top NFL bets to make.

Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-175) ⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes often looks to tight end Travis Kelce in the red zone, who was the only Chiefs player to score double-digit touchdowns (12) in the regular season. Despite this, Cincinnati managed to shut him down in the first half of their regular-season game, and their ability to limit the eight-time Pro Bowler will hinder Mahomes’ potential.

Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo excels at making adjustments in the second half. In three meetings, the Bengals limited Mahomes to a 56.8% completion percentage, 254 passing yards, 5.8 yards per attempt, a 0:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 54.5 passer rating after halftime. If the Over on this prop doesn’t hit in the first half, the odds are slim for it to hit in the final 30 minutes.

Gamblers can discover favorable odds at any sportsbook to bet on the Under for 1.5 touchdowns. However, we are willing to pay a higher price to have an additional touchdown as a safety net.

Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Since 2021, Cincinnati has the most playoff takeaways in the NFL with 12, including 10 interceptions. The Bengals defense held Josh Allen to his lowest career playoff passer rating of 68.1 and pressured him on 34% of dropbacks.

It was unexpected that the Jaguars only pressured Mahomes on 16% of his dropbacks last week following his ankle injury, a significant decrease from the 54% rate before the injury. Anticipate Anarumo to implement a new strategy and push Mahomes to make at least one error in the upcoming game.

Be sure to take a look at our player prop bets for Christian McCaffrey and Jalen Hurts.

Player prop picks for Patrick Mahomes were made on January 27, 2026 at 6:27 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”