Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Week 4: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Jets
Patrick Mahomes is set to make his debut in New York for Sunday Night Football. We have compiled our top player prop predictions for Mahomes, backed by the best NFL odds available.
Patrick Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP and quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, will lead his 2-1 team against the struggling New York Jets offense, which is led by second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. This primetime matchup could be make or break for Wilson as the Jets’ quarterback, depending on their ability to generate offense.
Mahomes has bounced back after a rough start to the season and the Chiefs now hold a winning record above .500. Despite the rotating group of wide receivers on offense, Mahomes continues to perform at a high level.
Mahomes is looking to wow his newest fans on primetime by putting on a show at the Meadowlands. Record viewership is expected, thanks to the star power of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.
Check out our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions, along with our Travis Kelce player props and Chiefs vs. Jets predictions. Odds are provided by our recommended NFL betting sites, and confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 4
- Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts(-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 37.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 295.5 pass+rush yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes player props
Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In his first three games, Mahomes threw an average of 37.7 passes per game, surpassing this mark in two of them. The Kansas City Chiefs rely on their quarterback’s arm for just over 59% of their offensive game. Last season, Mahomes threw under this average in eight games, but hit exactly 35 pass attempts in three of them.
In their first three games, the Jets faced an average of 36 passing attempts per game, with two opposing quarterbacks surpassing this number. Teams choose to pass on 51% of their offensive plays against New York.
DraftKings is offering the same prop at the same price as well. BetMGM has increased the line to -130 for the Over. FanDuel, on the other hand, has set the line at 36.5 and reduced the juice to -108 for Mahomes to complete 37 passes.
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Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 37.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have struggled with the deep ball this season, with Mahomes averaging just 10.9 yards per completion. His longest pass so far was a 20-yard throw that Skyy Moore turned into a 54-yard touchdown. Overall, Mahomes is averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt in 2023, only slightly better than his career average of 8.06 yards per attempt.
Despite their strong arm abilities, both Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys failed to connect with their receivers on deep passes long enough to surpass a certain total. The only player to exceed 38 yards receiving against the Jets was Pharaoh Brown, a tight end for the New England Patriots. Mac Jones, the Patriots’ quarterback, threw a well-placed medium-range pass to Brown, who caught it behind the defense and scored a long touchdown.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 295.5 pass+rush yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In his last two games, Mahomes surpassed this number by gaining 335 total yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 300 yards against the Chicago Bears. Throughout last season, the Chiefs’ quarterback averaged 308.8 passing yards and 21.1 rushing yards per game. In his lone game against the Jets, Mahomes threw for 416 yards.
The Jets have performed admirably against opposing quarterbacks this season, limiting them to just 222 passing yards per game. However, they have allowed an average of 129.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
You can locate this line one yard below at DraftKings, but it comes with a price of -115. BetMGM offers the same line at 295.5 with -115 odds on each side. FanDuel goes even further down to 293.5 with -114 odds on both sides.
Patrick Mahomes made his player prop picks on Saturday, September 30th, 2023 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
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