Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Week 6: Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs on TNF
The Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs for Thursday Night Football, and we will be providing our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the latest NFL odds.
Patrick Mahomes has not had a dominant start to the season. He ranks seventh in total passing yards, is tied for the 12th-most interceptions, and sits at 18th in completion percentage. Additionally, he has only recorded one 300-yard game so far.
Mahomes remains undefeated against the Broncos, with an average of 269 yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game in his career against the division rival. In the previous season, he surpassed 300 yards in each matchup.
Here are our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions to go along with our Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions. Don’t forget to check out our Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL player props, with odds provided by our trusted NFL betting sites. Confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 6
- Patrick Mahomes Over 269.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes player props
Patrick Mahomes Over 269.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Despite facing challenges this season, Mahomes has managed to throw for over 270 yards in three out of five games. The only occasions he fell short of this mark were against the Detroit Lions and New York Jets, both known for their strong defensive play in football.
The Broncos’ defense is giving up an average of 281.8 passing yards per game, with two 300-yard passers having already faced them. Sam Howell nearly joined that group with 299 passing yards against them. Mahomes had a field day against this defense last season, racking up a total of 680 yards in his two starts.
This play is rated three stars due to the potential for the Chiefs to build a significant lead and rely on running the ball. The Broncos’ weak run defense could lead to a standout performance from Isiah Pacheco, while Mahomes may reach 200 passing yards before shifting focus to the ground game in the second half.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one of his games this season, with only one game where he threw three touchdowns. During the previous season, Mahomes had eight regular-season games with three or more touchdown passes, and two of those were against the Broncos.
Travis Kelce is likely to take the field tonight, despite his ankle injury, and may be restricted in his movements. However, he is expected to be a viable option for goal-line plays. Given the Broncos’ struggles in defending against passing touchdowns this season, it seems unlikely that they will be able to prevent Kelce and his teammate from finding the end zone. Denver has already allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season, with two of their opponents managing to throw four each against them.
Sanchez Rhea examines his top Travis Kelce NFL player props for Thursday Night Football.
Prices for this prop can vary on our top sports betting apps. You can find prices as low as +120, so be sure to place your bet where the payout is most beneficial.
Evans Santiago examines potential touchdown targets for Mahomes, making anytime and first touchdown scorer predictions for TNF.
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Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This play hinges on the Chiefs’ ability to effectively run the ball in the game. Pacheco has received a minimum of 15 carries in each of the last three weeks, resulting in Mahomes completing more than 25 passes only once in those games.
The Broncos have the sixth-worst passing yards allowed per completion in the NFL at 11.1. Meanwhile, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the 14th-best average at 10.2 yards per completion. Given this matchup, we anticipate Mahomes surpassing his season average against the Broncos’ vulnerable secondary.
We prefer the Under in this game due to the abundance of big plays and a reduced need to pass in the final moments. We suggest taking the highest line available for the most favorable odds. FanDuel has the Under 24.5 at -114, but we believe the Under 25.5 at -120 is a more secure choice.
Patrick Mahomes’ player prop selections were chosen on 10/12/2023 at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
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