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Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Zappe to Bounce Back in Denver

King Orson

Updated on December 24, 2023 at 3:55 PM EST, this article is a 3 minute and 7 second read. For more information, check out our Twitter and Google News links.

Bailey Zappe of the New England Patriots walks across the field in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers, and we offer our top Patriots vs. Broncos prediction based on the best NFL odds.
Bailey Zappe of the New England Patriots walks across the field in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

On Sunday night, New England will face off against Denver, and we have our top prediction for the Patriots vs. Broncos game based on the latest NFL odds.

The NFL schedule-makers were helping us prioritize family time by setting this game on Christmas Eve, giving fans an opportunity to choose spending quality time with loved ones over watching football.

Although you may not be interested in watching the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos game, you can still make some money on it by taking our pick as an early Christmas gift.

Due to his lackluster performance in Week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe is not receiving much respect from sportsbooks this week.

Nevertheless, there is one specific book that has significantly low Zappe, and we are targeting their rogue line.

Here are our top predictions for Week 16 NFL games, including player props for Russell Wilson, a Same Game Parlay for Patriots vs. Broncos, and player prop picks for the same game. We also provide our best prediction for the Patriots vs. Broncos matchup and NFL picks, with odds sourced from top NFL betting sites. Confidence levels are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Patriots vs. Broncos prediction

Bailey Zappe Over 179.5 passing yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Zappe had a rough Week 15 performance against the Chiefs, with only 180 passing yards and an interception. Despite his struggles, he was able to surpass the low total being offered at BetRivers for this week.

Just last week, Zappe had an impressive game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, throwing for 240 yards and three touchdowns. Now he faces a similarly vulnerable defense that was recently exposed by Jared Goff for 278 passing yards.

There are a few reasons why I consider this bet worthy of a four-star rating.

Initially, BetRivers is offering an impressive figure. Most of our top sports betting apps have placed Zappe’s passing yards total at 188.5. Pinnacle, a highly-regarded trading team in the sports betting industry, initially set the total at 186.5 before adjusting it to 188.5 on Thursday.

Another reason why I am confident in this pick is Zappe’s projected performance. Based on nine different projection models, Zappe is expected to pass for an average of 207.35 yards. This gives us a positive expected value of approximately 35% by betting the Over at BetRivers.

Playing the Over at another top sportsbook like FanDuel, where the total is 185.5 at -114, would give you a 25% +EV on your bet. Even with the standard -115 on 188.5 (found at DraftKings and BetMGM), you would still be getting nearly 20% +EV.

This is why I consider Zappe’s Over at BetRivers to be a four-star bet, and why I personally wagered 1.5 units on it.

To get the top deal on this prop, make sure to enter our special BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS!

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Patriots vs. Broncos best odds

BetRivers (-114)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
188.5185.5188.5 188.5188.5
-115-114-115-118-110

This bet highlights the significance of comparing odds. By placing this bet on BetRivers, we are receiving almost a 10-yard advantage compared to the industry-standard line of 188.5.

As noted earlier, even the highest price (Caesars’ -118 on 188.5) still offers approximately 18% +EV. Placing a bet at any of our other recommended sites with better sportsbook promotions would be a three-star play for me, so this is just a typical one-unit wager.

Note from the editor: Prepare for the upcoming debut of Vermont sports betting with our top Vermont sportsbook promotions, and make sure to download the premier Vermont sports betting apps! Must be 21+ and located in Vermont. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Patriots vs. Broncos odds

Patriots vs. Broncos odds analysis

The Broncos started as 5.5 to 6 point favorites for Sunday night’s game and have now moved to -7 at all top live betting sites except for FanDuel, where they are still at -6.5. If you want to bet on the home favorites, head to FanDuel.

If you’re rooting for the underdogs, consider placing your bets on BetMGM, bet365, or Caesars, as they all offer +7 at -110 odds, which is better than DraftKings’ -115. About 56% of the spread action is in favor of the Patriots.

Regarding the overall betting action, 78% of bets are on the Under, leading to a decrease of more than two points at our top sports betting websites. The initial line was set at 36.5 and has since moved to the 34 to 34.5 range.

Patriots vs. Broncos game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • How to watch: NFL Network
  • Weather: 42 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

The prediction for the Patriots vs. Broncos game was made on Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

(21 and older. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER)* Bonuses are not valid in Ontario.

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Written By:
King Orson
King Orson is a publishing editor for Underscoreg Review. He’s been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He’s probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.