NFL Player Props Week 10: Predictions, Picks for Sunday
Stewart Serena, betting analyst for Underscoreg Review, shares his top NFL player props for Week 10, utilizing the best NFL odds from our recommended prop betting sites to inform his selections.
During their bye weeks in Week 10, the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are taking a break to recharge. However, this means we will be missing out on some significant star power, as the quarterbacks from these teams are leading the odds for NFL MVP and are at the top of the Super Bowl odds.
However, the best values are rarely associated with high-profile stars. We still have 14 games to focus on for our NFL player props this week.
In addition to our NFL Week 10 predictions and best bets, we have compiled our top NFL player props for Week 10 using odds from our preferred NFL betting sites. Each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars based on confidence level.
NFL player props for Week 10
- Brian Robinson Jr. Over 43.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Justin Simmons Over 4.5 tackles (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
- Hayden Hurst Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
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NFL player props for Week 10: Sunday
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 43.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
Robinson has solidified his role as the top running back for the Washington Commanders since late 2022, consistently surpassing 43.5 total yards in consecutive games and in six out of nine games this season. Additionally, the Seattle Seahawks do not have a strong run defense to challenge Robinson.
I predict Robinson will have 54.9 rushing yards and would consider betting the Over at -144 odds. This offers a better value compared to the -119 odds at Caesars, giving us a positive expected value of 9%.
For Washington to stay in the game, they need to maintain competitiveness and avoid abandoning the running game to match Seattle’s pace. It is fortunate that the Commanders have had close results in seven out of nine games this season, with all five away games being decided by just one possession.
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Rhamondre Stevenson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
I expect Stevenson to get more carries against the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday, predicting he will reach 55.1 rushing yards. The Colts have a strong rush defense, holding running backs to an average of 3.77 yards per carry. However, they have given up some big runs in the past few weeks, with 12 rushes of 10 or more yards in their last three games.
Stevenson is riding high after his standout performance in the last game, where he scored a season-high 64-yard rushing touchdown. To hit the Over, all he needs is another big gain and his typical workload in the backfield.
Based on my projection, I would set the price of this prop at -139, which results in a positive expected value of 11% when compared to the -110 odds offered by bet365.
Take advantage of our exclusive bet365 bonus code, SBRBONUS, to secure the best odds on Stevenson’s rushing total. Also, don’t miss Young Quigley’s prediction for the Colts vs. Patriots game for more insights on this matchup.
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NFL player props for Week 10: Monday Night Football
Justin Simmons Over 4.5 tackles (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐
The player-prop lines for the upcoming Monday Night Football game between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills are not particularly enticing, but one player to keep an eye on is Simmons, who is a consistent presence on the field and should have ample opportunities to rack up tackles.
The Bills are 13th in time of possession at 30:35, while the Broncos are ranked 28th at 27:52. In seven of nine Buffalo games, an opposing free safety has exceeded a total of 4.5 tackles. The only exceptions were in losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals, where Buffalo lost the possession battle by a combined 74:50 to 45:10.
Since the Bills are heavy favorites at home, I doubt Denver will have the same luck as the Jaguars and Bengals.
I predict Simmons will make 5.4 tackles and suggest taking the Over at -153 odds. This gives us a small 2% positive expected value based on the -145 odds at DraftKings.
Phil Wood believes that Denver will have a successful outcome in their upcoming game against the Bills.
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NFL player props for Week 10: Thursday Night Football
Hayden Hurst Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
This total for Hurst is unusually low compared to the number listed by the other four top sportsbooks, which is 16.5.
After their Week 7 bye, the Carolina Panthers appointed offensive coordinator Thomas Brown to handle play-calling duties. In the last two games, Hurst has been targeted six times and has run a receiving route on 70% of his offensive snaps throughout the season.
This matchup should also be favorable for the experienced tight end.
The Chicago Bears defense is giving up an average of 7.0 yards per target and allowing the highest catch rate in the league at 83.3% to the opposing team’s receivers.
I predict that Hurst will have 18.2 receiving yards and would consider betting the Over at -170 for a 15% expected value compared to the -120 FanDuel odds. I would also feel confident in suggesting this bet if the total increases to 13.5, especially with a lower vig.
NFL betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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