NFL Player Props Week 11: Predictions, Picks for Sunday
Underscoreg Review’s betting analyst Stewart Serena is aiming to build on last week’s success by sharing his top NFL player props for Week 11. He carefully selects the best NFL odds from our top NFL prop betting sites to provide his NFL picks.
Our NFL player props had another successful week, with three out of four hits resulting in a profit of 1.45 units.
Following their Week 10 bye, the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are set to bring back a wealth of star power to the field. These teams are considered top contenders in Super Bowl odds, with their quarterbacks leading the way in NFL MVP odds on various sports betting platforms.
Here are our top NFL player props for Week 11, in addition to our NFL Week 11 predictions and best bets. These player props are based on odds from our preferred NFL betting sites and are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale for confidence.
NFL player props for Week 11
- Amari Cooper Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- George Pickens Over 34.5 receiving yards (-117 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
- Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tyler Boyd Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐ ❌
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NFL player props for Week 11: Sunday
Amari Cooper Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Cooper is a primary focus in the Cleveland Browns’ vertical passing game, averaging 8 targets per game. I think the decrease in his receiving yards in the recent game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over as starting quarterback, is being blown out of proportion.
Thompson-Robinson lacked first-team practice reps before his Week 4 debut against the Baltimore Ravens, resulting in a less-than-stellar performance. However, with the opportunity to practice with the first team this time, the rookie QB from UCLA is expected to show improvement in his upcoming game.
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I predict Cooper will have 53.6 receiving yards and would set the Over line at -139. There is a positive expected value of 11% between my projection and the -110 odds at bet365.
George Pickens Over 34.5 receiving yards (-117 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
Pickens has had a quiet three-game period, only catching six passes out of 14 targets for 66 yards. In contrast, fellow wide receiver Diontae Johnson, despite dealing with a thumb injury, has been more productive with 192 receiving yards and 16 receptions on 27 targets.
Johnson was absent from Wednesday’s practice due to a thumb injury. Although he may still be able to play on Sunday, I expect Pickens to have a more prominent role in the passing game against the Browns. This has been a point of conversation among the team for the past week, and Pickens’ receiving yards have been at their lowest this season.
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I predict Pickens will have 46.9 receiving yards, so I would bet the Over at -141 odds. Despite the line moving in favor of the Over, my calculations show a positive expected value of 9%, making it a worthwhile target. However, the edge will decrease as the vig and/or total go up.
Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
McKinnon has a receiving yards total of 16.5 on other NFL prop betting sites, but there is a significant advantage in betting on the Kansas City Chiefs running back to exceed 11.5 yards on FanDuel.
Furthermore, I hold the Pinnacle NFL trading team in high regard as a top player prop pricing industry leader, and they are currently offering McKinnon at 16.5.
My projection for McKinnon is 17.7 receiving yards in the game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. I would set the Over price at -156. The 14% positive expected value between my projection and the FanDuel price of -114 is consistent.
McKinnon plays a reliable role in the Kansas City offense, excelling as a pass-catcher with consistent performances. He has surpassed this achievement in four out of the last five games and in six out of nine games this season.
To learn more about this game, check out Phil Wood’s prediction for the Eagles vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football matchup.
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NFL player props for Week 11: Thursday Night Football
Tyler Boyd Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐ ❌
The line for Boyd’s receiving yards has shifted towards the Over, starting as low as 41.5 on Tuesday. Even though the total has increased to 43.5, I still believe there is a slight advantage based on my projections.
I predict that Boyd will have 48.6 receiving yards against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, so I would set the price for this prop at -120 for a positive expected value of 3%.
Tee Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. In the two games that Higgins has missed in 2023, Tyler Boyd has received 17 targets. Similarly, in 2021, Boyd also had 17 targets in consecutive games when Higgins was sidelined.
There’s no denying the challenging matchup against the Baltimore defense, which has allowed the fewest yards per target to wide receivers in the league and ranks second in pass defense DVOA. However, while it won’t be easy, I believe Boyd will still see enough targets to surpass the set number.
NFL betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
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