NFL Player Props Week 4: Predictions, Picks for Monday
Perry Odelia, the betting analyst at Underscoreg Review, has shared his top NFL player prop picks for Week 4 based on odds from premier NFL prop betting sites. After a perfect 4-0 record in Week 3, he is focused on continuing his winning streak.
Following a lackluster Week 2, our NFL player props bounced back in Week 3 with a flawless 4-0 record. This successful streak has carried over into Week 4, where we currently stand at 2-1 heading into Monday Night Football.
On Thursday, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs surpassed his projected reception total of 3.5 by making nine catches out of 13 targets against the Lions, resulting in a successful bet for us. Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings fell short of his receiving yards total, finishing with 86 yards and scoring twice, causing our Under bet to hit. Unfortunately, Jaylon Waddle narrowly missed exceeding his receiving yards total, ending the game with 46 yards and resulting in a loss for us.
Next, we will be looking at a Seattle Seahawks running back to complete our NFL Week 4 predictions.
These are our top NFL player props for Week 4, with odds sourced from our preferred NFL betting sites. Confidence in each pick is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
NFL player props for Week 4
- Kenneth Walker Over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Jaylen Waddle Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
- Justin Jefferson Under 102.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 receptions (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
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NFL player props for Week 4: Monday
Kenneth Walker Over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The spread for the Monday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants has fluctuated, with the Seahawks now favored by 2 points. I believe this shift is justified, as I predict the Seahawks will have a positive game plan and give Walker the chance to shine in the running game.
The perspective may not always result in the odds being in our favor to make a good purchase, but in this situation with Walker, we have identified an advantage in the odds due to a slightly unconventional price offered by FanDuel.
Walker is expected to run for 72.7 yards against the Giants. This projection leads us to consider taking the Over on 64.5 rushing yards at -120. However, FanDuel is offering it at -110. While there is a small edge with a positive expected value of 4%, the price is more delicate than it seems.
The Seattle running back is being offered at a maximum of 66.5 yards on most of our top sports betting websites, with the Over option priced at -110 or even higher. However, betting on the Over 66.5 would result in a negative expected value of approximately 2%. The two-yard variance between FanDuel’s odds and the rest may appear small, but it is the difference that gives you an advantage when betting on Walker during Monday Night Football.
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NFL player props for Week 4: Sunday
Jaylen Waddle Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐✖️
The Bills’ defense will face a tough challenge in Week 4 as Jaylen Waddle, who missed the previous game due to concussion protocol, will be back in action for the Dolphins. The fact that Miami scored 70 points against the Broncos in Week 3 without Waddle is impressive, making it even more daunting for the Bills to prepare for his return. It will be interesting to see how Buffalo’s defense handles the threat Waddle poses this week.
During their meetings last season, the Bills focused on limiting Tyreek Hill’s targets to short passes to prevent big plays. However, against the Dolphins, they faced a difficult decision with multiple threats, leading to Jaylen Waddle making big plays and causing problems for the Bills.
This is why I am concentrating on Waddle’s total receiving yards instead of his number of receptions. With a line set at 59.5 yards, it is possible for this to go over with just one pass to Waddle.
Waddle is expected to have 74.9 receiving yards against the Bills. In addition to the historical performance of the Bills, we also have a statistical advantage. Based on this projection, we can set Waddle’s receiving yardage over/under at 59.5 yards, with odds of -143. However, it is currently available at bet365 for -110.
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Justin Jefferson Under 102.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐✅
Justin Jefferson is poised to become one of the greatest wide receivers in history. However, by choosing the Under, we are not discounting his exceptional talent. It is simply a wager against the high number set at 102.5 receiving yards for the total.
Jefferson has surpassed his receiving yards total in the first three weeks, increasing from 90.5 to 95.5, to 100.5, and now reaching 102.5 in Week 4. While the projections may suggest taking the Under at 102.5, there is another factor to consider.
During the recent offseason, Adam Thielen, who spent nine seasons with the Vikings, departed in free agency to sign with the Carolina Panthers, who happen to be the Vikings’ Week 4 opponents. Having studied film and trained alongside Justin Jefferson for the past few seasons, Thielen likely has valuable insights to share with the Panthers’ defensive coordinator and defensive backs on how to limit Jefferson’s impact. While completely stopping Jefferson may be a tall order, disrupting his performance enough to keep him under his impressive average of 102.5 yards is certainly a possibility.
In addition to the Thielen angle, we also have the projections and statistics supporting this bet. Jefferson is expected to gain 99.8 receiving yards against the Panthers, allowing us to bet on the Under 102.5 receiving yards at -137.
Don’t forget to shop on this platform at FanDuel in order to increase your advantage. Many of our top sports betting sites have Jefferson’s total set at 99.5, but with the projection at 99.8, even a small difference can significantly decrease your expected value on this bet by more than 6% depending on the juice.
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NFL player props for Week 4: Thursday
Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 receptions (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐✅
I understand your thoughts on Christian Watson’s return for the Green Bay Packers in their upcoming game against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football, but I believe his presence actually gives us an advantage to bet on Doubs’ receptions Over.
There are two perspectives to consider: Watson could potentially decrease Doubs’ target opportunities, or his ability to challenge the defense could actually create more opportunities for Doubs to make receptions and get open on his routes.
In my opinion, Doubs continues to be a key player in the Packers’ passing game, even without Watson. This was evident in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints when he received 12 targets. It is no coincidence that a receiver receives 12 targets in an NFL game.
We are not discussing the possibility of him having a smaller role with Watson. Instead, we are considering if it is a good idea to bet on him getting over 3.5 receptions at +116 with Watson returning to the lineup. The projections suggest that this bet is a favorable one.
It is anticipated that Doubs will have 3.6 receptions against the Lions, which may not seem remarkable given the total of 3.5, but the odds are in our favor. With this forecast, we can set Doubs’ over/under for receptions at +106, yet it is currently available at FanDuel for +116.
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Perry Odelia’s selection (SBR | Twitter/X)
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