How to Bet Patrick Mahomes’ Best Super Bowl Performances: Prop Predictions Based on Past Stats

We are evaluating Patrick Mahomes’ top Super Bowl performances and analyzing the potential betting odds for the Chiefs QB against the 49ers in Super Bowl 2026, using the top NFL odds available on our recommended Super Bowl betting sites.

In just seven years in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, has compiled a resume worthy of the Hall of Fame. He will have the chance to enhance his legacy on Sunday as he faces the San Francisco 49ers in the 2026 Super Bowl.

In 2020, he led the Chiefs to victory over the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, overcoming a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter. This secured his first Lombardi Trophy and earned him Super Bowl MVP honors. He repeated as Super Bowl MVP last year and is currently favored to win the award again according to the latest odds.

Despite being the underdog according to the latest Super Bowl odds, his team has the opportunity to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 New England Patriots. A win on Sunday could bring him closer to chasing Tom Brady as the NFL’s all-time best quarterback.

Along with our predictions for the Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup and other Super Bowl forecasts, we are evaluating Mahomes’ top Super Bowl performances and projecting his stats for Sunday, utilizing our top NFL picks from the best NFL betting sites.

Patrick Mahomes’ best Super Bowl appearances

1) Super Bowl LVII vs. Eagles (Feb. 12, 2026)

What we witnessed from Mahomes in last year’s Super Bowl was truly exceptional. He completed 21 of 27 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns in his team’s 38-35 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

In his Super Bowl start, Mahomes recorded his lowest passing yards yet, but he achieved a milestone by not throwing an interception for the first time in his three appearances. Additionally, he contributed 44 rushing yards, with a crucial 26-yard scramble during the Chiefs’ last drive that led to the game-winning field goal.

Just a few weeks after a high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, he managed to put up an impressive stat line. This raises the question of how dominant Mahomes can be on this stage, given his current health status.

2) Super Bowl LIV vs. 49ers (Feb. 2, 2020)

The first time is always special, and Mahomes delivered a Super Bowl performance that will be remembered in his debut title appearance in 2020.

In the final moments of the fourth quarter, Mahomes rallied his team to score three touchdowns in just five minutes, securing his first Lombardi Trophy. Despite throwing two interceptions, he also achieved his highest combined yards (315) and touchdowns (three) in a Super Bowl game.

For some bettors, one of the most memorable moments was when Mahomes scored the first touchdown of the game by diving into the end zone with 31 seconds left in the first quarter. Currently, he is listed as high as +2500 on bet365 to be the first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 58.

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3) Super Bowl LV vs. Buccaneers (Feb. 7, 2021)

To fully narrate Mahomes’ Super Bowl journey, one must not overlook his defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, a game that ended in a less than favorable outcome.

Despite throwing for 270 yards on 26 of 49 attempts, he failed to score any touchdowns and threw multiple interceptions for the first time in his postseason career. This was mainly due to poor pass protection, as Mahomes was constantly under pressure from the Buccaneers’ aggressive blitz.

If you believe he will underperform in Super Bowl 58, you can find favorable odds on him not scoring any touchdowns (+600 on BetMGM) and throwing multiple interceptions (+425 on bet365). It’s important to note that the Chiefs’ offensive line has improved significantly since their last Super Bowl appearance, where they allowed three sacks and nine quarterback hits.

How to bet on Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes has averaged 246 passing yards and has scored a total of six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) while throwing four interceptions in his three Super Bowl appearances.

Will we see a repeat of his previous Super Bowl performances in Super Bowl 2026, where he has thrown four of his seven postseason interceptions, with numbers below his career playoff averages of 282.2 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game?

Take a peek at Mahomes’ career averages in the Super Bowl, along with his top Over/Under odds for Sunday’s matchup against the 49ers. Additionally, we have included the implied probability for each side using our odds converter.

Patrick Mahomes projections for Chiefs vs. 49ers

Patrick Mahomes predictions for Super Bowl 58

This is the worst offense of the Mahomes era, evident throughout much of the 2026 NFL regular season.

For the first time in the Mahomes era, Kansas City fell outside of the top 10 in scoring. The two-time MVP had his lowest averages in passing yards per game (261.4) and touchdowns per game (1.7) in his six years as a starter. The main reasons for this decline were an unreliable receiving corps and a subpar season from star tight end Travis Kelce, who failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015.

This postseason has seen a shift in Mahomes’ performance. Although his statistical output may not be eye-popping, he has consistently thrown for around 240 yards per game with a 68% completion rate and an impressive 4-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio. Despite having the most passing attempts, he has yet to make any turnover-worthy plays.

He is now up against a 49ers defense that has been struggling in recent games, ranking 28th in PFF grade since Week 15. In the NFC Championship, they allowed Jared Goff to throw for 273 yards and a touchdown. San Francisco also had difficulty containing Mahomes in their 2020 title matchup and despite keeping many of the same key players, they are performing worse defensively.

In our previous discussions on Super Bowl passing props and Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, we highlighted the advantageous matchup for Mahomes against the Niners, who tend to play a zone defense similar to the one employed by the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship. Furthermore, the resurgence of Kelce, who is showing signs of returning to his top form in his ninth consecutive postseason appearance, adds to Mahomes’ potential success in this game.

Mahomes has yet to deliver a truly outstanding performance in the Super Bowl, despite having two Super Bowl MVP trophies. It seems like everything is coming together for him to showcase his talent and have a standout game on Sunday.

Projections: More than 260.5 passing yards (-110 odds on bet365), and more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140 odds on FanDuel)

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