2024 NFL Rookie Passing Leader Odds, Predictions: Fade Favorite Caleb Williams

According to the latest odds from top NFL betting sites, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is currently the frontrunner to lead all rookie passers in the 2024 NFL season. However, there are other promising players to consider when placing your bets.

It came as no shock that former USC quarterback Caleb Williams was the first name called in last Thursday’s NFL draft. As expected, the top sports betting sites have him as the early favorite to lead all rookies in passing yards.

The Chicago Bears’ latest franchise quarterback is the frontrunner in betting odds (+130) to lead all rookie quarterbacks in passing yards during the 2024 NFL season, according to our top sportsbooks. He narrowly edges out Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings), the only other quarterbacks with odds of +600 or better.

Williams may be the early favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but his chances of leading in passing yards are uncertain due to the Bears’ unstable offensive line. This uncertainty leads us to consider other potential value plays for the 2024 season.

Check out the latest odds for the 2024 NFL rookie passing leader from our top sportsbooks and our expert NFL predictions.

Odds to finish with most NFL regular season rookie passing yards

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Favorites to lead NFL in rookie passing yards

Caleb Williams (+130 via Caesars)

Williams has consistently been the top choice in all rookie markets, including being favored as the No. 1 pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s no shock that he is also the main attraction in this market.

In Chicago, he will have a multitude of weapons at his disposal. Star receiver D.J. Moore, who ranked sixth in receiving yards with 1,364, will be catching passes from quarterback Justin Fields. The Bears have also acquired former Los Angeles Chargers wideout Keenan Allen, who ranked sixth in receptions with 108 in 2023, and drafted Washington star Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick.

The primary concern continues to be the offensive line, which hindered Fields’ progress in Chicago and could result in challenges for Williams as a newcomer. Despite this, the +130 odds suggest a 43.49% chance that the former USC standout will lead all rookies in passing yards. A successful $10 bet would yield a $23 payout.

Jayden Daniels (+320 via FanDuel)

Although Williams was considered the top prospect in this year’s class, Daniels is believed to have the highest potential of any quarterback in the draft.

The player who was once a standout at LSU finished the 2023 season ranked fifth in passing yards with 3,812, and led the nation in yards per attempt with 11.7. His impressive performance earned him the 2023 Heisman Trophy and caught the attention of the Commanders, who selected him with the No. 2 pick in the draft. Additionally, the team added to their offensive line depth by drafting Brandon Coleman as a potential starter in the third round, after already signing two new starting linemen in free agency.

That is a positive development in improving the offensive line that gave up the second-highest number of sacks (65) in 2023. Daniels is now looking for receiver Terry McLaurin to finally make the leap to superstardom in order to take advantage of these odds, which have an implied probability of 23.81% and a potential $42 payout on a $10 bet.

J.J. McCarthy (+350 via DraftKings)

Following intense speculation leading up to the draft that positioned McCarthy as a top-three pick, the ex-Michigan quarterback slipped to the No. 10 spot in the first round and ultimately found himself in a fantastic situation with the Minnesota team.

Despite losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles in Week 8 of the 2023 season, the Vikings still managed to lead the NFL in non-sack adjusted passing yards with 4,700. Under the guidance of coach Kevin O’Connell, who is a disciple of Sean McVay, Cousins’ replacements were able to average 260.7 passing yards over the final nine games of the season.

McCarthy’s senior season in 2023 saw him average only 199.4 yards per game, as he didn’t have a significant role in leading the Wolverines to a national championship. However, if given the opportunity to showcase his NFL-level arm strength, he has a chance to exceed expectations with odds of +350, indicating a 22.22% probability of earning a $45 return on a $10 bet.

NFL rookie passing leader prediction, best bet

J.J. McCarthy (Vikings)

While McCarthy may not be my top choice for quarterback in this class, he is entering a highly advantageous situation with two standout receivers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, an offensive-minded coach in O’Connell, and arguably the strongest offensive line among the top rookie passers.

As previously stated, the Vikings topped the league in passing yards excluding sacks, despite using replacement-level quarterbacks for more than half the season. If McCarthy takes over the offense immediately, it’s likely he will surpass 3,000 yards passing.

While McCarthy may not possess the creative abilities of Williams or the natural arm talent of Daniels, he could potentially be the most NFL-ready quarterback in the right setting. Given the uncertainty surrounding this draft class, I see great value in betting on McCarthy to have a successful rookie season and put up impressive numbers.

Forecast: J.J. McCarthy is favored to win with +350 odds according to DraftKings.

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