Steelers vs. Bills Prediction, Pick & Odds: NFL Wild Card Weekend

The playoff matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills has been rescheduled from Sunday to Monday due to winter storms. We anticipate that snowstorms will be a major factor in the game, and we will be making our Steelers vs. Bills prediction based on the latest NFL odds.

If you enjoy watching football in snowy and windy conditions, you might be in for a treat. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6) game was postponed from Sunday to Monday due to a major snowstorm, and although the weather is expected to improve slightly, there could still be some light snow, gusty winds, and freezing temperatures during kickoff.

Originally scheduled for Sunday in extremely cold temperatures, snow flurries, and strong winds, the kickoff of the game faced difficult weather conditions. In order to prioritize the safety of both teams and their fans due to dangerous travel conditions, the NFL decided to reschedule the game to Monday. Despite the new time slot, the teams are still dealing with winter weather challenges. The Bills have organized volunteers to assist in clearing snow from walkways and seats on Monday.

Despite potential improvements in conditions by Monday, the game is expected to be even colder than originally expected, with wind potentially affecting both teams’ passing offenses and kicking games. The question is whether the Bills can overcome the storm as substantial favorites, or if the underdog Steelers will stay competitive in a weather-affected contest.

Here are our top predictions for the Steelers vs. Bills game during Wild Card Weekend, including player props for Josh Allen. Our NFL picks are based on odds from the best NFL betting sites and are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale for confidence.

Steelers vs. Bills prediction for Wild Card Weekend

Under 37.5 points (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The total for this game has fluctuated throughout the week, starting at 41 and dropping to 33.5 due to the expected winter storm before the Sunday kickoff. With the game now scheduled for Monday, the total has risen to 37.5 at two of our top sports betting sites, despite the ongoing threat of winter weather impacting the match.

The Buffalo region is expected to be engulfed by the eye of the storm on Saturday night into Sunday, with a winter storm warning in effect just hours before kickoff. Temperatures for Monday’s game are still anticipated to be below 20 degrees.

The winds are forecasted to reach 15 mph, which is not as severe as the 50-60 mph gusts experienced over the weekend, but it still poses a significant challenge for a successful passing game. This was evident last week when the Patriots and Jets played in snowy and windy conditions, resulting in the lowest total score in three decades (28.5).

Despite all of that, I would still be considering betting on the Under in this game even if there wasn’t any winter weather expected, because the teams playing seem likely to have a low-scoring, competitive game.

Beginning with the Steelers’ offense, it is clear that they are the weakest unit on the field. While Pittsburgh has shown improvement with third-string QB Mason Rudolph, a lot of their success has been on big plays, which will be more difficult to achieve in the freezing weather expected on Sunday.

Instead, the Steelers are likely to rely heavily on their running game, which has been a key component of their strategy in the latter part of the season. From Week 10 onwards, Pittsburgh has been ranked sixth in rushing yards per game with an average of 142.9 yards, thanks to the dynamic duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Both players have excelled in exceeding expectations in terms of rushing yards, as shown by their top five rankings in this category according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Under Joe Brady’s leadership as interim offensive coordinator, the Bills have shifted towards prioritizing the running game. Despite this change, Josh Allen has still struggled with turnovers, giving away the ball eight times in the past seven weeks. As a result, Buffalo’s offense has been held to 27 points or fewer in three consecutive games.

The Bills’ defense has proven to be one of the top units in football during the second half of the season, regardless of their lack of recognition. This was showcased on Sunday night when they limited the Dolphins to just 14 points and 47 net yards in the second half. This impressive performance followed their ability to hold the Cowboys to a season-low 10 points in Week 15.

On Sunday, the Steelers will be missing their standout pass-rusher T.J. Watt, a significant loss. However, there is good news as safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Damontae Kazee (suspension) are expected to make their return this week. Additionally, rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. and edge rusher Alex Highsmith are emerging as promising talents for the team.

Even though the Bills are the superior team on paper, I am hesitant to bet on them giving double-digit points in a game that may be affected by lingering snow showers and freezing temperatures. I placed a small bet on the Steelers at +10 as a hedge, but my main focus is on my larger bet on the Under.

Longest field goal made Under 45.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

This prop bet caught our attention earlier in the week when forecasts predicted winds reaching 50-60 mph during a Sunday afternoon game. While Monday’s forecast is not as severe, we still believe this wager presents an opportunity to capitalize on the challenging weather in Buffalo.

While Monday’s forecast is not as extreme as Sunday’s, this game will still be played in snow showers and 15 mph winds. These conditions will likely make it difficult for kickers to make long field goals, as evidenced by the Jets-Patriots game where neither kicker successfully made a field goal over 40 yards.

During the 2026-24 season, Steelers kicker Chris Boswell showed impressive accuracy at 93.5%, but his average kick distance was only 39 yards. He made only one kick over 46 yards in six out of 17 regular season games. On the other hand, Bills kicker Tyler Bass struggled with accuracy, ranking 28th at 82.8%. He only had five games with a kick over 39 yards, with none occurring since late November.

I anticipate these kickers to be more effective from shorter distances if given the chance, so I wouldn’t completely discount field goals. However, I doubt either of these kickers will successfully make a long kick in the windy conditions.

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Steelers vs. Bills best odds

bet365 (-110)

Following fluctuations between a high of 41 and a low of 33.5, the total for this game has now settled between 37 and 37.5 on our top sports betting sites. This adjustment comes after the game was postponed to Monday due to hazardous conditions expected on Sunday afternoon.

We continue to favor the Under in this game, with two top sportsbooks providing a total of 37.5 with -110 odds on both sides. Our preferred option between the two is bet365 due to its superior cash-out options in the event of another postponement, although this decision is ultimately based on personal preference.

I strongly suggest looking into our top sportsbook promotions to maximize your bets for Wild Card Weekend, especially with the market being so competitive.

Steelers vs. Bills odds

Steelers vs. Bills odds analysis

The initial total for this game was set at 41 at DraftKings and 40.5 at other sportsbooks, but the betting market quickly shifted towards the Under due to an anticipated winter storm in Buffalo. This storm could bring snow and winds up to 30 mph, or possibly even worse conditions.

The game was rescheduled for Monday, causing some top live betting sites to cancel wagers and temporarily remove the game from the board. It reopened on Saturday evening with a higher total. Despite this, we still prefer the Under and advise placing your bet sooner rather than later in case Buffalo’s conditions deteriorate.

If you are considering betting on the spread for this game, four out of our top five sports betting apps are offering the Bills at -10 (-110). It may be a good idea to wait and see if this line moves beyond that important number as the game gets closer. On the other hand, the Steelers have the best odds at +10 (-105) on FanDuel, which is the side we recommend betting on before Monday.

Steelers vs. Bills game info

• When: Monday, Jan. 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 15 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds

Prediction for Steelers vs. Bills made on Saturday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

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