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Brock Purdy Super Bowl Player Prop Predictions, Odds

Allen Byron

Updated as of February 11, 2024 at 12:31 PM EST. Read time: 5 minutes and 14 seconds. Stay updated by following us on Twitter and checking out our latest news on Google News.

Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers warms up prior to a game against the Washington Commanders as we look at our Brock Purdy player props.
Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers warms up prior to a game against the Washington Commanders. Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP.

We have analyzed the NFL odds from top Super Bowl betting sites to make our top predictions for Brock Purdy’s performance in the 2024 Super Bowl, where his San Francisco 49ers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Just under two years ago, Brock Purdy was selected as the 262nd and last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Now, he has the opportunity to make a name for himself as one of the most unexpected success stories in NFL history when his San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV this Sunday.

Despite not being with the 49ers during their loss in that game, Purdy has the potential to guide them to their first title since 1994. He has already matched the second-highest number of wins by a quarterback in their first two seasons since 1950 and is only the eighth quarterback to start a Super Bowl within his first two seasons.

Purdy has been consistently putting up impressive numbers in the postseason, averaging 295.5 passing yards per game along with two touchdowns, one interception, and 62 rushing yards. It will be interesting to see how he matches up against the Chiefs’ defense in the 2024 Super Bowl.

In addition to our predictions for the Chiefs vs. 49ers game, we are providing our top player props for Brock Purdy in the Super Bowl. These props are based on odds from our recommended NFL betting sites and are ranked on a 1 to 5-star scale for confidence.

Brock Purdy player props: 2024 Super Bowl

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Brock Purdy player prop predictions

Brock Purdy’s first pass to be incomplete or intercepted (+194 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Brock Purdy had the second-highest completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts in the regular season at 69.4%. However, his performance in the playoffs has been inconsistent, with a 61.4% completion rate overall and a 37 Total QBR. In the first half of the NFC Championship, he struggled with a 47% completion rate.

Since this is Purdy’s debut Super Bowl, it wouldn’t be surprising if he felt a bit nervous at the start. He will be up against Steve Spagnuolo, the only defensive coordinator in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different teams (Chiefs and New York Giants).

Spagnuolo has a 3-1 record as a defensive coordinator in the Super Bowl. With the San Francisco offensive line ranking 30th in pressure rate allowed, the odds are in Spagnuolo’s favor to disrupt Purdy early on and force incomplete passes.

DraftKings is offering odds of +190 for Purdy’s first pass to not be completed, which is slightly worse. FanDuel has Patrick Mahomes as the favorite at -120 to finish with a higher completion percentage, with Purdy at -102 odds. This bet is worth a three-star play.

To learn more about Purdy, explore our passing props and Purdy vs. Mahomes NFL player props.

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Brock Purdy to not throw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Many bettors may find Purdy’s +140 odds to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter appealing, considering his impressive 126.8 passer rating in playoff games during the final quarter – the highest of any quarterback since at least 1991 with a minimum of 30 pass attempts. However, it’s worth noting that Kyle Shanahan’s offenses have struggled in the fourth quarter during his two Super Bowl appearances, being outscored 40-0.

Andy Reid has a perfect 3-0 record against Shanahan as a head coach, so we’re not counting on Shanahan to outsmart him in this matchup. Even if we’re mistaken and San Francisco manages to win, there’s a possibility that a favorable game flow could lead to the 49ers playing conservatively and running out the clock instead of taking risks in the passing game in the fourth quarter.

However, the Chiefs’ defense has only allowed a total of 32 points (averaging four points per game) in the second halves of their last eight games. Even in their three playoff games, they have only given up 10 points in the second halves. This suggests that scoring will be difficult in the final 30 minutes of the game.

FanDuel is asking for a higher price of -188 for Purdy to not throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter, making DraftKings a better option for better value. The odds for Purdy not throwing a touchdown pass in the first or third quarters are -265 and -245, respectively, so it’s a good deal to focus on the fourth quarter prop bet for Purdy.

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Brock Purdy Under 12.5 rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The rushing yards prop bet for Brock Purdy is the most popular bet at DraftKings for the Super Bowl. However, we are choosing to go against the majority opinion and believe that the public is placing too much emphasis on Purdy’s performance in the NFC Championship Game.

In the game against the Detroit Lions, Purdy rushed for a total of 48 yards, with 49 yards gained in the second half alone. He also managed to secure three rushing first downs. Purdy saw a lot of action in the second half as the 49ers orchestrated the third-largest comeback in Conference Championship history, coming back from a 24-7 deficit.

During the first half of the game, Purdy had an average of 6.2 passing yards per attempt. In the second half, he achieved a 99 Total QBR while completing 81% of his pass attempts for 10.9 yards per attempt. It is unlikely that the game will become too one-sided early on, leading Shanahan to stick to a more traditional game plan that may restrict Purdy’s rushing potential.

The quarterback had rushed for nine yards or less in the last six regular season games and had only exceeded 13 rushing yards in six out of 18 games. Lamar Jackson’s Over bet of 63.5 rushing yards was a popular choice for player prop bets during the Conference Championship round, but the Chiefs limited him to 54 yards on eight carries. We anticipate that Kansas City will also be able to contain Purdy, who is not recognized for his running abilities, and keep him under his predicted total.

DraftKings and bet365 stand out as the top sports betting sites that offer favorable plus-money odds for this wager. In contrast, FanDuel has a higher price of -112 for betting on the Under.

We explored additional methods of betting on the running game in our analysis of the top rushing props for Super Bowl 58.

Brock Purdy’s player prop picks were made at 6:32 a.m. ET on Friday.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”