Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy Super Bowl Player Prop Predictions, Odds
The 2024 Super Bowl will feature a showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. We are analyzing the player prop bets for Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes to make our predictions, using odds from top Super Bowl betting sites.
The quarterback experience will vary greatly in Super Bowl 58, with Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes having his fourth start in the Big Game, while San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy will make his Super Bowl debut on Sunday.
As previously mentioned, Mahomes has been exceptional in the Super Bowl in previous years. He has completed 68% of his pass attempts for 718 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the playoffs.
Purdy has faced challenges in the postseason, particularly in the beginning of games. If the 49ers, favored to win the Super Bowl, fall behind early against the defending champions, can he stage a comeback?
In addition to our predictions for the Chiefs vs. 49ers game and other Super Bowl matchups, we have compiled the top player props for Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. These odds are sourced from our trusted NFL betting sites and are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars for confidence.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy prop predictions
Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Purdy will only surpass this number if the 49ers are significantly trailing in the game. However, even in that scenario, he may struggle to achieve this goal against a strong defense.
During the playoffs, the 49ers were trailing against both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, with Purdy accumulating 267 and 252 passing yards in those games. It is worth noting that the defenses of those two teams are significantly weaker compared to what the Chiefs will be facing on Sunday.
The Chiefs defense is limiting opponents to an average of only 181.5 passing yards per game. Given the likelihood of Christian McCaffrey having success running the ball against the Chiefs’ average run defense, it is unlikely that Purdy will need to pass the ball too often.
One option to consider is betting on Mahomes to finish with more yards than Purdy, but the prop bet comes with a higher price at -140.
To learn more about the San Francisco quarterback, explore our top Brock Purdy NFL player props.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Isiah Pacheco is likely to have ample running opportunities against the 49ers’ defense, while Mahomes is expected to pass frequently. Despite the Chiefs’ lead in the AFC Championship Game and Pacheco’s 24 rushing attempts, Mahomes still threw the ball 39 times.
In four of his last six games, Mahomes has thrown 37 or more passes. The 49ers have an explosive offense that makes any lead against them precarious. As a result, Andy Reid will likely refrain from running out the clock too soon, especially after the Baltimore Ravens had numerous chances in Kansas City’s previous game.
The 49ers are giving up an average of 36.6 pass attempts per game. Despite Mahomes potentially struggling to connect on a high number of passes, this game will likely remain tight enough for him to be throwing throughout all four quarters.
In our Patrick Mahomes NFL player props, we delved deeper into this market.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 7.5 consecutive completions (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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In the postseason, Mahomes has shown exceptional accuracy by completing at least 73.9% of his pass attempts in two out of three games. Additionally, he has maintained a strong completion rate, achieving at least 70% in four out of his last six games.
If his receivers continue to drop passes as they have been all season, this could pose a challenge for Mahomes. However, with the upcoming game being played in a controlled environment, Mahomes and his receiving corps are expected to perform exceptionally well.
The 49ers defense is allowing a completion rate of 65.52% to opponents, placing them 20th in the NFL for the 2023-24 season. Mahomes excels at exploiting the defense’s weaknesses, and he should have ample opportunities in this game. At this cost, this is one of the top prop bets for either quarterback in this matchup.
In our analysis of the top passing props for Super Bowl 58, we provided a more comprehensive explanation of this particular bet.
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Prop picks for the Super Bowl matchup between Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes were made on Friday at 12:47 p.m. ET.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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