Deebo Samuel Super Bowl Player Prop Predictions, Odds
Our top Deebo Samuel Super Bowl player prop predictions are based on the latest NFL odds from the top Super Bowl betting sites. Watch as Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl.
Deebo Samuel, who rose to fame in Super Bowl LIV, is now one of seven starters still on the San Francisco 49ers roster as they aim to redeem themselves against the Kansas City Chiefs in the upcoming 2024 Super Bowl.
Despite being a rookie in the 2020 title game, Samuel impressed with 53 rushing yards, leading the team with nine targets and five receptions, although only gaining 39 yards. What will he bring to Sunday’s rematch as an encore?
In addition to our analysis of the Chiefs vs. 49ers game and other Super Bowl predictions, we have compiled a list of the top Deebo Samuel player props for the big game (odds sourced from our recommended NFL betting sites; confidence ratings given on a scale of 1 to 5 stars).
Deebo Samuel player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Deebo Samuel to have first reception of 20+ yards (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Deebo Samuel 6+ receptions (+152 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Deebo Samuel to win Super Bowl MVP (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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Deebo Samuel player prop predictions
Deebo Samuel to have first reception of 20-plus yards (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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According to DraftKings, Deebo Samuel has the fourth-best chance of being the first player to make a reception of 20 or more yards. The top three favorites are Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce. Due to Patrick Mahomes’ recent low yards per attempt average in the playoffs, we are excluding all Chiefs receivers from consideration in this bet against San Francisco’s defensive strategy.
Instead of that, we are focused on a San Francisco receiver making a big play against the aggressive Chiefs defense, which blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the league at 36.3%.
In this upcoming game, Samuel will be up against a Kansas City defense known for leading the league in two-high safety looks. According to Connor Allen from 4For4Football, Samuel had a 27.2% target share against two-high looks in the 11 games he played alongside Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle this season, making him a key player for the team. With at least one reception of 20-plus yards in six of the last 10 games, Samuel is likely to make a big impact and be the first to make such a catch in this game.
According to FanDuel, Samuel is considered an underdog with +128 odds to be the first to reach 50-plus receiving yards when compared to Aiyuk. Additionally, he is a +140 underdog in his head-to-head matchup with Rice. Despite potentially receiving less volume than the other two receivers, we anticipate Deebo will be the one to make the first big play.
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Make sure to also explore our other top receiving options.
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Deebo Samuel to record six-plus receptions (+152 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Samuel has caught six or more passes in three of the past nine games. In the NFC Championship Game, he had eight catches on nine targets. We anticipate that head coach Kyle Shanahan will find ways to get him the ball while avoiding Kansas City’s top cornerbacks.
Tony Holzman-Escareno, a senior researcher for the NFL, pointed out that Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed had the lowest completion percentage (49%), second-lowest yards per target (5.3), and second-lowest passer rating (60.1) among players with at least 80 targets.
While Sneed typically doesn’t cover the top receivers on opposing teams, we anticipate him matching up against Brandon Aiyuk frequently in this game. This strategy should allow Samuel to exploit the vulnerable areas of Kansas City’s secondary.
This play deserves four stars, with Samuel leading the team in target share at 22.8% in 11 games when he, Aiyuk, and George Kittle were healthy. We anticipate Samuel will finish the season strong, mirroring his impressive start with six or more catches in two of the first three games.
Caesars is offering +121 odds for Samuel’s six-plus alternate receptions line, but FanDuel has better value. Additionally, Caesars has -175 odds for Samuel to record at least five catches, while FanDuel offers +152 odds for one more catch, making it a steal.
Deebo Samuel to win Super Bowl MVP (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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If I were to choose a player other than the quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVP, my vote would go to Deebo Samuel. He has the ability to make an impact not only in the passing game, but also as a threat in the rushing attack from the backfield.
In the last five seasons, wide receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP award twice, with Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp being the recipients. Additionally, in the past seven Super Bowls, five of the MVPs who were not quarterbacks were wide receivers. This includes all five MVPs who were offensive players, while Malcolm Smith and Von Miller won the award as defensive players.
Samuel’s ability to score both rushing and receiving touchdowns in five games this season makes it difficult for teammates like Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey to establish themselves as the most valuable player.
The +2500 odds from Caesars and BetMGM are better than the +2000 odds at DraftKings and FanDuel. Samuel is also listed with the fifth-best Super Bowl MVP odds at +950 to score two or more touchdowns at DraftKings, making it possible for him to be considered for the MVP award.
The 49ers are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -130 on our top sports betting sites. Betting on Samuel instead of Purdy to win Super Bowl MVP could be a smart investment.
To learn more about this market, take a look at our Super Bowl MVP predictions.
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Player prop picks for Deebo Samuel were made on Friday at 6:35 a.m. ET.
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