Super Bow Predictions for Longest Plays: Prop Picks for Longest Pass, Rush, Reception
We are predicting the longest plays of the Super Bowl based on the top NFL odds from our trusted Super Bowl betting sites ahead of the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Big Game.
Who could resist the excitement of a major play during the Big Game? There may be plenty of those to look forward to this Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers face off in Super Bowl 2024, scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
In our Super Bowl predictions, we have identified the 49ers as the betting favorites due to their star-studded offense, which was the most efficient unit in the NFL during the regular season. However, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP based on our odds and is currently playing the best football of his career.
The potential for explosive plays from both offenses makes this year an exciting opportunity to explore Super Bowl player props. One way to capitalize on this is through the longest plays market, where a single play can lead to a cash payout, unlike Super Bowl game leader predictions.
Here are our top predictions for the longest plays in the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and 49ers, along with our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl prop bet odds. Our picks are based on odds from the best NFL betting sites and are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale for confidence in our NFL picks.
Super Bowl longest plays predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Brock Purdy longest pass completion (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco longest rush (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Elijah Mitchell longest rush (+6000 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Brandon Aiyuk longest reception (+400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Watson longest reception (+2000 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Kadarius Toney longest reception (+7500 via DraftKings) ⭐
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Longest pass prediction
Who will have the longest pass completion of Super Bowl 58?
Longest pass completion pick, analysis
This wager is more challenging to predict than it appears initially, especially with Purdy being the favored choice in this market.
Mahomes, the more skilled quarterback of the pair, topped the league in passing attempts per game (37.3) during the regular season. With his fourth Super Bowl start on Sunday, he appears to have the advantage in nearly every passing category when examining our passing props.
In his last two title games, he failed to complete a pass longer than 27 yards. This was noted when evaluating Mahomes’ top Super Bowl performances. Additionally, he has demonstrated a readiness to target the short passing game against zone defenses, such as the 49ers who utilize this strategy at the fourth-highest rate (63%) in the NFL.
During his last six starts, Purdy has consistently led the league in yards per attempt (9.6) and per completion (13.9), with three passes of at least 50 yards. While I have doubts about Purdy’s overall performance in his Super Bowl debut, I anticipate he will successfully complete a deep pass or two on Sunday.
We continued to analyze the competition between these two quarterbacks in our Purdy vs. Mahomes NFL player props.
Forecast: Brock Purdy is favored to win with odds of -130 according to bet365.
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Longest rush predictions
Who will have the longest rush of Super Bowl 58?
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | -150 | +100 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +250 | +250 |
| Deebo Samuel | +1000 | +950 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1000 | +600 |
| Brock Purdy | +2200 | +1300 |
| Kadarius Toney | +2500 | +4000 |
| Jordan Mason | +3500 | OFF |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +5500 | +2800 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +5500 | OFF |
| Elijah Mitchell | +6000 | +1400 |
Longest rush picks, analysis
According to the statistics, McCaffrey and Pacheco are the main contenders in this two-person competition, as they both carry the majority of their teams’ workload.
Out of the two, McCaffrey is the more dynamic rusher, leading all running backs in yards per carry (5.4) and first downs (83) during the regular season. Additionally, he has recorded 22 carries of 15-plus yards, which is five more than any other NFL running back.
With that being said, Pacheco is ranked sixth in breakaway runs with 13 and will have a more favorable matchup against the 49ers front, which has difficulty containing runs to the outside. While this may not be his strongest skill, all it takes is one successful run for him to potentially win at a favorable price.
I am also keeping a close watch on Elijah Mitchell, who I singled out as a potential winner in my top Super Bowl long-shot bets.
The player who was drafted in the sixth round previously is now starting for the team in 2021 and retains their impressive 4.3-speed, capable of breaking free if provided with the opportunity. This is especially crucial if McCaffrey’s health is not as good as the 49ers have indicated following his injury in the NFC Championship.
Make sure to take a look at our rushing props and our analysis of the top Isiah Pacheco NFL player props.
Predictions: Isiah Pacheco is listed at odds of +250 on FanDuel, while Elijah Mitchell has odds of +6000 on DraftKings.
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Longest reception predictions
Who will have the longest reception of Super Bowl 58?
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | +360 | +380 | +400 |
| Rashee Rice | +450 | +370 | +450 |
| George Kittle | +500 | +700 | +650 |
| Travis Kelce | +500 | +700 | +500 |
| Deebo Samuel | +550 | +600 | +500 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +1000 | +800 | +800 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1200 | +1300 | +1600 |
| Justin Watson | +1500 | +950 | +2000 |
| Skyy Moore | +2200 | OFF | OFF |
| Noah Gray | +2800 | +4000 | +2800 |
Longest reception picks, analysis
The longest reception in Super Bowl 58 will also be the game’s longest completion, making bets on these two outcomes correlated to some extent. While the 49ers have a good chance of producing the biggest pass play overall, the better values in this market are mostly on the Chiefs’ side.
Brandon Aiyuk emerged as a standout All-Pro receiver in 2023, playing a crucial role in his team’s success. In the regular season, the fourth-year wideout ranked second in the NFL for yards per reception (17.9) and per target (12.8), as well as third in success rate (70.5%) and yards per route run (2.91) among qualified receivers.
He will be challenged by star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, known for shutting down top receivers. Despite this tough matchup, I believe Aiyuk has a good chance to make an impact at +400 odds on bet365. However, considering this matchup, we should also explore other betting options further down the board for a complementary bet.
In this matchup, only four receivers have recorded over 10 catches of at least 20 yards this season. Three of them (Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel) have odds of +600 or shorter at our top sportsbooks. The fourth receiver, Justin Watson, has been targeted at least 20 yards downfield 22 times, which is tied for the 23rd most in the NFL and only two less than Aiyuk who had 24 targets entering Sunday.
Kadarius Toney, with +7500 odds on DraftKings, is a potential ultra-long shot to record the longest reception of Super Bowl 58. Despite uncertainties about his playing time and a challenging season, the former first-round pick still possesses the speed to make a game-changing play that could make a bet at such high odds worthwhile.
We delved deeper into several of these players in our receiving props, including our player props for Brandon Aiyuk in the NFL.
Predictions: According to bet365, Brandon Aiyuk is +400, Justin Watson is +2000, and Kadarius Toney is +7500 via DraftKings.
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Prop picks for the longest plays in the Super Bowl were made on Thursday at 3:45 a.m. ET.
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