Super Bowl Opening Kickoff Touchback Odds 2024, Prop Bets, History
We are examining the history of opening kickoff touchbacks in the Super Bowl and discussing prop bets with NFL odds from our top Super Bowl betting sites.
For more than 50 years, the Super Bowl kickoff typically led to a return. However, there has been a noticeable change in recent years, with Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers starting off with yet another touchback.
For the third consecutive Super Bowl, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker launched the ball into the end zone for a touchback, continuing the longest streak in Big Game history. The Super Bowl odds predicted this outcome, with “Yes” being the heavy favorite for an opening touchback, just like last year.
Take a glance at the Super Bowl betting trends at the start of the game and a summary of the top NFL picks from our trusted sports betting websites.
Super Bowl opening kickoff props
Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback?
(odds updated Feb. 11)
| Touchback? | DraftKings | BetMGM | bet365 | Implied probability (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | -285 | -300 | -320 ❄️ | 75.61% |
| No | +230 | +220 ❄️ | +235 | 28.57% |
In the 57-year history of the Super Bowl, there had only been eight touchbacks on opening kickoffs. However, in the two years leading up to Super Bowl 58, two touchbacks had occurred. As a result, sportsbooks correctly predicted that there would be a touchback in the opening ahead of the Chiefs-49ers matchup.
As expected, Butker effortlessly kicked the ball through the back of the end zone, scoring a “Yes” for the third consecutive season and second consecutive time with his foot.
How did things change so drastically after only four touchbacks in 30 years? The answer lies in the recent NFL rule changes to kickoffs.
During the 2023 NFL regular season, the Green Bay Packers had 31 kickoff returns in 17 games, which was a decrease of almost 35% compared to their league-leading 47 returns the previous year. This was less than half of the 70 returns that led the league a decade ago when there were only 16 games in a season.
Consequently, the odds were significantly lower in comparison to the ones we witnessed in 2023 leading up to Super Bowl 57, where Butker kicked off for a touchback. In 2023, the odds for “Yes” were as low as -143, while “No” could be as high as +140.
Which team will receive the opening kickoff?
This bet was similar to wagering on the Super Bowl coin toss odds, with both teams having approximately a 50% chance of winning, but with slightly less favorable odds.
The Chiefs won the coin toss and chose to defer, allowing the 49ers to start with the ball in Super Bowl 58. Interestingly, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan made the decision to receive the opening kickoff in overtime, ultimately leading to their loss against Patrick Mahomes and his team.
Will the opening kickoff be returned for a touchdown?
Only once in Super Bowl history has this occurred, when Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl 41. This was one of the Chicago Bears’ two touchdowns in a decisive defeat to the Indianapolis Colts.
The chances of another kickoff return for a touchdown in Super Bowl 58 were slim, as only four out of 587 kickoffs (0.68%) resulted in a touchdown during the 2023 NFL regular season. This statistic applies to kickoffs in general, not to mention the opening kickoff of the game.
As expected, the opening kickoff was not returned, despite the enticing long-shot odds tempting bettors to place a wager before the Chiefs-49ers game.
| Opening kickoff returned for TD | Yes | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +6500 | 1.50% |
| bet365 | +8000 | 1.23% |
| FanDuel | +10000 | 0.99% |
By utilizing our odds converter, we can determine that the implied probability of that bet is 1.96% at DraftKings— which is almost three times higher than the rate of touchdown returns for all kickoffs during the regular season.
It was slightly above the rate of opening kickoff touchdown returns (1.75%) in the Super Bowl’s 57-year history. The numbers from bet365 and FanDuel were closer to reality, with implied probabilities of 1.23% and 0.99%, respectively.
Anyway, this bet did not pay off in 2024, and it is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future, if ever.
Super Bowl opening kickoff touchback history
After the 58th edition of the Super Bowl, let’s explore some of the key historical trends related to the opening kickoff of the game.
- A whopping 49 of the 58 Super Bowl opening kickoffs have been returned, including 26 of the last 31. But we’ve now seen three straight kickoffs result in a touchback, with the change in NFL rules no doubt an influence.
- The only five to result in a touchback over the last three decades were kicked indoors, as was the case with the 2024 Super Bowl.
- All five opening kickoff touchbacks listed above also took place after the 2010 NFL rule change that moved the kickoff spot from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line.
- No team has ever opened the Super Bowl with an onside kick attempt, though we have seen some notable onside kick attempts later in the game.
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