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Super Bowl Rushing Prop Predictions, Odds: Top Picks for McCaffrey, Pacheco

Allen Byron

Updated as of February 11, 2024 at 11:30 AM EST. Read time: 4 minutes and 18 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News for more information.

Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers runs the ball for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we offer our top Super Bowl rushing props based on the best NFL odds.
Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers runs the ball for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images via AFP.

The 2024 Super Bowl will feature a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, and we’ve analyzed the top Super Bowl rushing prop bets using the latest NFL odds from our top Super Bowl betting platforms.

Who will have the better game in the 2024 Super Bowl: Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers or Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs?

McCaffrey earned his second All-Pro recognition of the season by amassing 1,459 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, as well as 567 receiving yards and seven scores. Pacheco led his team’s rushing attack with 935 yards and scored seven of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns in the regular season.

As Jerick McKinnon remains on the Super Bowl injury report alongside fellow Kansas City running back, could this lead to an expanded role for Pacheco in the upcoming game?

Here are our top Super Bowl Rushing props for Chiefs vs. 49ers, along with our Super Bowl odds and predictions. These props are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale based on confidence, with odds provided by our top NFL betting sites.

Super Bowl rushing props

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Super Bowl rushing prop predictions

Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Christian McCaffrey is heavily favored at -200 on BetRivers to lead the Super Bowl in rushing yards, with an over/under projection of 90.5. We are capitalizing on the attractive plus-money odds on his alternate rushing total at bet365, as surpassing 100 yards is well within reach of his original number.

McCaffrey has rushed for over 93 yards in six of the last eight games and seven of the past 10. He is expected to have a strong performance against the Chiefs defense, which has struggled with explosive run plays and stuffing the run since Week 13, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league.

In the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco’s three-star performance showcased head coach Kyle Shanahan’s unwavering dedication to the running game against the Detroit Lions.

During the NFC Championship game, San Francisco found themselves behind by at least four points on 68% of plays and behind by nine or more points on 38% of plays, as reported by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. Despite going up against the NFL’s second-best rush defense, the 49ers still opted for the second-highest number of rushing plays of the season, with a DBOE of minus-9%.

We analyzed McCaffrey’s rushing expectations in more detail using our Christian McCaffrey NFL player props.

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Isiah Pacheco is player with the longest rush (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

McCaffrey has been on the field for 95% of the snaps and carried the ball on 71% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts in the playoffs. Isiah Pacheco, on the other hand, has a 75% snap share in the playoffs and has accounted for 76% of the Chiefs’ rushing attempts. Therefore, the player with the longest rush in the game is likely to be one of these two bell-cows (the player with the next best odds being Patrick Mahomes at +1100), and we are tempted by Pacheco’s higher odds of +250 on DraftKings.

Pacheco has had a run of 23-plus yards in four out of his last six games, so if he has another big run on Sunday, this wager should pay off.

Caesars established the over/under for McCaffrey’s longest rush at 17.5 yards and Pacheco’s at 15.5 yards. The small difference in these numbers should not have led oddsmakers to make McCaffrey the -150 favorite to have the longest rush among all players.

Explore our Isiah Pacheco NFL player props for additional information on the Chiefs’ standout running back.

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Total players with a rush attempt in the game Over 8.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel is offering odds on the total number of players from each team who will have a rush attempt. Kansas City has an Over of 3.5 with odds of -290, while San Francisco has an Over of 4.5 with odds of +132.

Nevertheless, among our top sports betting sites, only Caesars is providing a prop bet on the total number of rush attempts by both teams. With the high probability that each team will exceed the expected number of rush attempts, we see value in taking the +110 odds on nine or more players getting a rushing attempt.

Even though Pacheco has dominated the team’s rushing attempts in the playoffs, the Chiefs have utilized four different ball carriers in each of their three playoff games. It is expected that Pacheco, Mahomes, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will all get carries, while Andy Reid and the coaching staff have found ways to involve Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman in the running game.

For the 49ers, McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Elijah Mitchell, and Deebo Samuel are all expected to have carries, but it’s possible that fullback Kyle Juszczyk could be the one to make a big impact. Juszczyk had a short-yardage carry against Detroit and made three catches on three targets in the last Super Bowl matchup between these teams.

If Juszczyk doesn’t run the ball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Reid or Kyle Shanahan take an aggressive and creative approach with a trick play or fake punt to shift momentum if the game situation calls for it.

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Super Bowl rushing prop bets were selected on Tuesday at 6:24 a.m. Eastern Time.

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Written By:
Allen Byron
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he’s especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike’s a big advocate of “fading the public” and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that “there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas.” When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He’s tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”