Skip to main content

NFL Teaser Picks Conference Championships: Back Underdogs in Close Contests

Stewart Serena

Updated on January 25, 2023 at 10:15 AM EST • Read time: 2 minutes and 63 seconds. Find more information on Twitter and Google News.

Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers reacts with teammates Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game at SoFi Stadium.
Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers reacts with teammates Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game at SoFi Stadium on January 30, 2022 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images via AFP.

As we approach the NFL Conference Championships, only four teams remain in the race for a spot in the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both considered underdogs, making them prime candidates for teasing above the critical 7-point spread on Sunday. Check out our top teaser picks for the upcoming games.

Early line movement in the NFL games this Sunday has created an opportunity to secure a higher number in two matchups that I believe will be closely contested until the end.

Both experienced and casual bettors utilize teasers to adjust several point spreads and/or totals across key numbers and ranges in order to increase their chances of winning. For more details and tips, refer to our teaser primer.

Below are our top picks for the NFL Conference Championships, with odds provided by DraftKings Underscoreg. Pick confidence is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.

Explore our top NFL picks for potential upsets and current betting trends in the NFL.

NFL Conference Championships Teaser Picks

  • Six-point teaser: 49ers +8.5 + Chiefs +8.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

49ers (+8.5 vs. Eagles)

The San Francisco offense led by quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t need to be flashy in the NFC Divisional Round against the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers’ top-ranked defense stepped up and showed they can carry the team to victory, even in an ugly game.

During their impressive 12-game winning streak, San Francisco has the top overall and defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. This presents a significant challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles offense, which recently dominated the New York Giants. Additionally, the Eagles have had the advantage of facing the sixth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses.

While I usually don’t follow trends, it’s worth noting that the Niners have a 5-0 record against the spread in their last five postseason games, while the Eagles have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six January games.

I anticipate the Niners will be competitive in Philadelphia throughout the entire Sunday afternoon game. Because of this, I believe the additional cushion above the critical number of 7 offered by this teaser leg is valuable.

Take a look at our odds for the 2023 Super Bowl and for the Super Bowl MVP.

Chiefs (+8.5 vs. Bengals)

I don’t anticipate Kansas City’s quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) to be fully healthy on Sunday night, so my decision is solely based on the numbers. The Chiefs initially were favored by as much as -3 at home according to some sportsbooks, with -2.5 being a common line Sunday evening. Therefore, by taking advantage of the line movement and grabbing +8.5, we are gaining a significant edge.

This marks the fourth meeting between these two teams in slightly over a year, leading me to believe that the Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid, who I believe is the better game-planner, will benefit from the familiarity. Furthermore, Cincinnati’s previous three victories against Kansas City were all close, back-and-forth games decided by a field goal.

I believe the change in the betting line was justified due to the unknown severity of Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. This adjustment has provided us with a strategic advantage, as the spread has now shifted to Cincinnati -2.5 by Tuesday afternoon.

I predict that as long as Mahomes is able to lead the offense effectively, this game will be decided by one possession.

NFL Conference Championships Teaser Best Odds

DraftKings (-120)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-120 -134-149* ❄️-128-140 ❄️

Each sportsbook has their own rules for teasers, so it is important to understand how they handle pushes – whether it results in a loss or if the pick will be removed and the odds adjusted. Some sportsbooks require you to choose an alternative point spread for each game and create a parlay, such as BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet.

Furthermore, as of Tuesday afternoon, BetMGM did not offer an alternative spread of +8.5 for the Chiefs. Therefore, the -149 odds are solely based on KC +8.

DraftKings and FanDuel Underscoreg are the top choices for placing teaser bets, with DraftKings offering the best odds for a six-point 49ers-Chiefs teaser. Bettors can enjoy a 3.8% edge and a 7% positive expected value when placing this wager at DraftKings compared to PointsBet.

I would consider this a four-star recommendation if I were certain that both underdogs would receive a field-goal headstart simultaneously, allowing us to use a six-point teaser to make both the 49ers and Chiefs +9 pups.

Teaser picks for the NFL Divisional Round were selected on 1/24/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Check out our Best NFL Betting Sites:

Are you 21 or older and struggling with a gambling problem? Please call 1-800-GAMBLER for help.

* Bonuses cannot be used in Ontario.

Related Pages

Written By:
Stewart Serena
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He’s a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.