NFL Player Props & Best Bets for Thanksgiving: Cowboys Continue to Dominate
We are getting ready for the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day tripleheader, which includes three NFC divisional matchups. Check out our NFL player props and top bets for Thanksgiving using the latest NFL odds.
One could argue that this year’s Thanksgiving Day game is the most highly anticipated season opener in recent history. The Detroit Lions, boasting an impressive 8-2 record (their best start since 1962), are leading the NFC North, while the Green Bay Packers are looking to catch up in the division standings.
The Dallas Cowboys, heavily favored by more than a touchdown, are gearing up to take on the Washington Commanders in a pivotal NFC East matchup. With home field advantage on their side, the Cowboys are looking to capitalize on their favored status and secure a crucial victory in this highly anticipated showdown.
The San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Seattle Seahawks in a crucial NFC West showdown. A win for the Seahawks would propel them into a tie for the top spot in the division.
Explore our comprehensive coverage of NFL Thanksgiving games and predictions for Week 12. We also have NFL player props and top bets for Thanksgiving, all with odds provided by our top NFL betting sites. Our picks are rated on a 1-to-5-star confidence scale.
NFL best bets: Thanksgiving
- Sam Howell Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown scorer vs. Commanders (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Packers +7.5 vs. Lions (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- 49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL Thanksgiving schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys (-11)
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks
NFL player props for Thanksgiving
Sam Howell Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell went into the game against the New York Giants as the league leader in completions and ranking in the top two for passing yards per game and passing touchdowns over the past three weeks. Despite his impressive stats, the Washington coaching staff needs to prioritize protecting Howell by incorporating more running plays. Howell is only the second quarterback since 1970 to be sacked over 50 times in the first 11 games of a season, with David Carr being the other quarterback.
After recording 2.5 sacks in his latest game, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons now has 12 career games with two or more sacks. Moreover, Dallas’s Pass Rush Win Rate of 74% against the Carolina Panthers was the highest in the NFL this year according to Next Gen Stats. With such a ferocious pass rush, Howell should be prepared to scramble for his life.
This is a strong four-star play, with Dallas limiting opposing quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in six out of ten games this season. If not for concerns about Howell padding his stats in garbage time, we would confidently upgrade this to a five-star play. Dallas is the first team since the 2007 New England Patriots to win six of its first 10 games by 20 or more points.
We rely on DraftKings for this bet because all of our top sports betting apps charge -154 or more to support the Under.
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Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown vs. Commanders (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Brandin Cooks, the wide receiver for the Cowboys, has been on fire recently, scoring touchdowns in three of the last five games. This is a significant improvement from the start of the season, where he had zero touchdowns in his first four games. Cooks has the advantage of having one of the top quarterbacks in the league, Dak Prescott, throwing to him. Prescott has thrown a total of 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in the past four games. He currently ranks second in the league in Total QBR (73.9) and PAA (points attributed by a quarterback), making him a valuable asset to Cooks and the Cowboys’ offense.
Washington’s pass defense has been porous, sitting at 30th in the league with an average of 258.5 yards allowed per game. The Commanders have given up over 300 passing yards to five quarterbacks and allowed two or more passing touchdowns to eight quarterbacks. Additionally, four quarterbacks have thrown for three or more touchdowns against them.
In his last two home games, Cooks has scored a receiving touchdown. With +240 anytime touchdown odds available using our FanDuel promo code, this is a better value compared to the +150 odds at BetRivers.
Only new customers are eligible for this offer. To qualify, you must deposit a minimum of $5 and place your first bet of $5 or more. If your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
NFL game picks for Thanksgiving
Packers +7.5 vs. Lions (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This line is razor-sharp, featuring our top sports betting sites offering a 7.5-point spread with -110 odds. Green Bay has been consistently underestimated as an underdog in 8 out of 10 games this season, with this matchup being the only one where they are favored by more than a field goal. The Packers had a strong start to the season as underdogs, going 3-0 ATS with two outright wins, but struggled to cover or win outright in subsequent games until their recent victory against the Chargers. Despite this, we are confident in backing the Packers in this divisional game, especially when they are favored by more than a touchdown, as the Lions are overrated due to their successful start.
The Detroit Lions’ defense struggled against the Chicago Bears, giving up 25 first downs. Their inconsistent performance is highlighted by their low DVOA variance ranking. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers’ offense has been improving, putting up over 394 total yards in back-to-back games against tough defenses like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers.
This play goes against the trend of favorites of a touchdown or more covering in 17 of the last 23 Thanksgiving games.
49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Over has hit in the last four games between San Francisco and NFC West opponents, but the 49ers and Seahawks had low-scoring matchups last season with a total of 34 points each. There is also a trend of Unders hitting in primetime games, with a 25-8 record this season and a 69% success rate in Thanksgiving evening games historically.
Seattle is optimistic about having Geno Smith as their quarterback, despite him still recovering from an arm injury that caused him to miss some game time. Unfortunately, they will also be missing their top rusher, Kenneth Walker III, which will further challenge an offense that has struggled in recent weeks.
Despite his impressive recent performances, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has shown a significant disparity in his statistics when playing at home versus on the road. While he has been exceptional in home games with an 11-2 TD-INT ratio, a 76.1% completion percentage, a 132.6 passer rating, and an average of 11.2 yards per attempt, his numbers on the road are less impressive. Purdy has a 7-3 TD-INT ratio, a 64.2% completion percentage, a 97.6 passer rating, and averages 8.2 yards per attempt away from home.
FanDuel is currently the sole sportsbook with a total above 43, so we are taking advantage of their 43.5 total before it matches up with other sportsbooks.
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The best NFL bets for 11/22/2023 were placed at 6:09 a.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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