Titans vs. Jaguars Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: AFC South on the Line Saturday
The upcoming Week 18 game between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars is a crucial win-and-you’re-in situation. The victor will claim the AFC South title and secure a home playoff game. Based on the odds, our top pick for this matchup is…
The Jaguars, led by up-and-coming quarterback Trevor Lawrence, have a chance to secure a playoff spot with a victory on Saturday. If they succeed, it will mark the team’s first playoff appearance since 2017.
In contrast, Tennessee has clinched the AFC South title for two years in a row and has participated in five playoff games in the last three seasons. The Titans are poised to have several key players return to the field and gain an advantage from the additional rest provided by playing the Week 17 Thursday Night Football game.
Saturday night is the ultimate test for the veteran Titans as they face off against the up-and-coming Jaguars.
Our top pick for the Titans vs. Jaguars NFL game in Week 18 (odds from DraftKings Underscoreg) is based on a confidence rating ranging from 1 to 5 stars.
Please take a look at our prop picks for Trevor Lawrence.
Titans vs. Jaguars Game Info
The event is scheduled for Saturday, January 7th at 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time. It will be broadcast on ESPN, ESPN+, and ABC from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL. The weather is expected to be 55 degrees with no chance of precipitation and 4-mph east winds.
Titans vs. Jaguars Odds
Titans vs. Jaguars Odds Analysis
The initial spread for the Jacksonville game was -6.5 and has held steady through Saturday afternoon despite some slight shifts. Early bets favored the Titans, causing the line to move to Jags -6 on Thursday. However, there has since been a resurgence of support for Jacksonville, and I anticipate this trend will persist up until the start of the game.
The total betting action this week has been fairly consistent, with the number remaining at 40 for the past few days after opening at 38.5 at most sportsbooks. It is important to mention that FanDuel is currently setting the number at 39.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
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Titans vs. Jaguars Pick
Jaguars -6.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This game features two teams moving in different directions, and I’m not worried about the Titans having extra rest as several key players sat out their Week 17 game against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
Key defensive players are scattered throughout the Tennessee injury report, while the Jaguars have shown impressive performance with a 5-1 record following their Week 11 bye. Jacksonville has climbed to 10th in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders during this winning streak, largely thanks to Lawrence’s success rate ranking fourth. He has been averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and completing 68.6% of his passes.
In comparison, Tennessee has suffered six consecutive losses and has the third-lowest overall DVOA. With poor pass blocking and quarterback Josh Dobbs only in his second career start, I don’t expect the Titans to put up much of a fight on Saturday.
I anticipate Lawrence will dominate the weak Tennessee secondary. The Titans have struggled with pass defense, ranking second to last in DVOA and allowing the highest EPA per dropback over the past six games. This is not a recent issue, as Tennessee ranks 28th in both metrics for the season.
Count on Lawrence to make his first career playoff start next week.
Take a look at our Week 18 NFL power rankings, which include against the spread analysis.
Titans vs. Jaguars Best Odds
DraftKings (-105)
DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
-6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 |
-105 | -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
All of our top-rated sportsbooks had a consensus spread for the Jags at -6 with a -110 vig on Thursday. The line has since shifted to -6.5 in favor of Jacksonville, but since it is still below the key number of 7, I am not too worried about the change. DraftKings is currently offering the lowest vig to place this bet.
Titans vs. Jaguars pick has been updated as of 1/7/2023 at 8:15 a.m. Eastern Time.
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