Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds for Black Friday: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets
The New York Jets have the potential to achieve what few teams have done this year: stifle the Miami Dolphins offense. As we analyze the best NFL odds, we expect them to succeed in slowing down Tua Tagovailoa and make our player prop predictions accordingly.
As Week 12 begins, Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins is ranked fourth in the NFL MVP odds. In his recent game against the Las Vegas Raiders, he threw for 325 yards, marking the fifth time this season he has exceeded 300 yards in a game. Heading into Week 12, he is trailing the league leader, Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders, by only 104 yards.
The Miami Dolphins, led by Tagovailoa, face a tough test against the New York Jets, whose defense has been strong, allowing only 178.7 passing yards per game. The Jets, looking to end a three-game losing streak and stay in the race for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, are determined to challenge the Dolphins. Miami must prepare to go up against a motivated Jets defense that is eager to turn their season around, adding pressure to their upcoming clash.
In addition to our Week 12 predictions, our analysis of the Dolphins vs. Jets game, and our player prop picks for Tyreek Hill, we are also sharing our top Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for the Week 12 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets. These predictions are based on odds from our recommended NFL betting sites and are given a confidence rating on a scale of 1 to 5 stars.
Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Black Friday
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 3.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
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Tua Tagovailoa player props vs. Jets
Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has surpassed his passing yardage total in seven out of his 10 starts, although many of those games were not against defenses as strong as the New York Jets. He has also been less effective throwing on the road, with yardage totals of 249 against the New England Patriots, 216 against the Philadelphia Eagles, and 193 against the Kansas City Chiefs on a neutral field in Germany.
In eight out of the 10 games New York has played, they have held opposing quarterbacks below 250 passing yards, including top players like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen. The Jets have been particularly strong at home, limiting opponents to 217 yards or less in four out of five games.
Tagovailoa’s passing yardage prop has seen some early action on the Under, decreasing by five yards since opening. However, I still believe there is value in this prop until it reaches 245 yards.
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Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
In the last month, the Miami Dolphins have had difficulty scoring touchdowns, only reaching the end zone twice in their games against the Raiders, Chiefs, and Eagles. Additionally, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing touchdowns have been limited on the road, with one or fewer in each of his last four games away from Hard Rock Stadium.
The Jets suffered a 32-6 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, marking the first time this season they allowed more than two touchdown passes and only the third time they gave up more than one. With all eyes on them in a national television game on Friday afternoon, the New York defense is expected to bounce back with a strong performance.
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Tua Tagovailoa Over 3.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Tagovailoa’s mobility was once a significant aspect of his game, with him rushing for 10-plus yards in five out of 13 games in 2021. However, a series of concussions and other injuries forced him to limit his scrambles out of the pocket. Now that he has been able to maintain his health, we are beginning to see him run a bit more. In his last three games, Tagovailoa has rushed for at least six yards each time, and has gained four-plus yards in five out of seven games.
He might have no other option but to rely on his legs this week when going up against the New York defensive line, which is ranked fifth in PFF pressure grade. Several quarterbacks have been forced to do the same this season when playing against the Jets, who have permitted opposing quarterbacks to gain at least 40 rushing yards in four of their last seven games.
With such a low number, all it might take is one broken play that forces Tagovailoa to scramble out of the pocket for a small gain in order to win this prop bet.
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Player prop picks for Tua Tagovailoa were made on November 22, 2023 at 4:06 p.m. Eastern Time.
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