Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions
We are offering our top NFL player prop predictions for Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes in the upcoming Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs game in Frankfurt, Germany. We have analyzed the most favorable NFL odds to make our predictions.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins is currently topping the NFL charts in total passing yards, averaging over 300 passing yards per game. He is also tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with 18 and boasts an impressive average of 12.5 yards per completion, showcasing his exceptional skills in the passing game.
In Week 8, Patrick Mahomes faced adversity as he failed to throw any touchdowns and instead threw two interceptions, leading to his team’s 24-9 loss to the Denver Broncos. However, despite this setback, he remains the third-highest passer in the league in terms of passing yards per game.
Here are our top predictions for Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes player props in their Week 9 matchup, along with our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and player props. Odds are provided by our top NFL betting sites and confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop: Week 9
- Tua Tagovailoa to record more passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes to finish with 300-plus passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 22.5 pass completions (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa to record more passing touchdowns (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
In 2023, Tagovailoa has thrown for three or more touchdowns in four games, while Mahomes has only achieved that feat twice.
Despite the Chiefs’ strong pass defense, they are ranked 19th in touchdown passes allowed per game. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are tied for 25th in the same category but are only trailing the Chiefs by 0.1 passing touchdowns per game.
Mahomes is the underdog in this category due to the Dolphins’ strong performances against teams of similar or higher caliber. Despite this, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense have struggled to impress even against weaker opponents this season. They have only scored 30 points on two occasions and 20 or fewer points on three occasions. At even odds, it may be wise to bet on the league leader in touchdown passes to come out victorious over Mahomes.
I am relying on Tagovailoa to target his top receiver, Tyreek Hill, in my NFL player props for Sunday morning’s game.
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Patrick Mahomes to finish with 300-plus passing yards (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tua might have a higher number of passing touchdowns, but Mahomes is expected to have more passing yards. However, the cost for Mahomes to surpass Tua in yards doesn’t provide significant value, as Tagovailoa has the ability to put up impressive numbers in each game.
As a result, we suggest starting Mahomes in order to reach 300 or more passing yards. He has accomplished this three times this season and has come within 30 yards of 300 in two additional games.
The Dolphins defense has given up an average of 221.5 passing yards per game, although they have faced some weaker offenses. Both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts had success throwing for over 300 and 279 yards, respectively, against them. Considering the Chiefs’ offensive style and Patrick Mahomes’ performances this season, this alternative line offers significant value.
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Tua Tagovailoa Under 22.5 pass completions (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has only had three games this season where he completed 22 passes or fewer. Despite the risk involved, the price makes it a worthwhile play.
Despite Tua’s impressive lead in passing yards, it may come as a surprise that he is tied for sixth in completions among quarterbacks. The Dolphins’ exceptional ability to make big plays is a major factor in this statistic. They lead the NFL in yards per play by a significant margin and rank second in passing yards per completion.
Tagovailoa consistently hovers around the 22.5 pass completion mark. Last week marked the first time this season he completed 30 passes in a game. In Week 1, he completed 28 passes, and in the six games in between, he completed between 21 and 25 passes each game. It is important to note that the Chiefs only allow an average of 19.4 completions per game, ranking fifth-best in the league.
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Player prop picks for Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes were made on 11/3/2023 at 12:19 p.m. ET.
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