NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 11: Cardinals Could Play Spoiler Again
We are selecting the Arizona Cardinals as one of our top upset picks for Week 11 in the NFL, while also avoiding the Buffalo Bills based on the most favorable odds available.
Even though the Arizona Cardinals have no chance of making the playoffs, they have Kyler Murray back at quarterback and could potentially disrupt other teams’ postseason aspirations in the final games of the season.
After defeating the Atlanta Falcons in Murray’s comeback game, the Cardinals aim to achieve a similar victory as they face the Houston Texans on the road, led by Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner C.J. Stroud.
The 5-5 Buffalo Bills are looking to break a two-game losing streak and stay in the hunt for the AFC playoffs, but they face a tough challenge against the New York Jets and their strong defense on Sunday.
Take a look at our NFL Week 11 picks and top bets, as well as our NFL props for Week 11. We also have our favorite upset picks for Week 11, with odds from the best NFL betting sites and confidence ratings on a 1 to 5-star scale.
NFL upset picks: Week 11
- Arizona Cardinals (+198 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐
- New York Jets (+265 via FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐
- Minnesota Vikings (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Denver Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Arizona Cardinals (+198 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐
Even though they only won one of their first nine games, the Arizona Cardinals showed unwavering support for their first-year coach Jonathan Gannon by going 4-4-1 against the spread during that stretch. With QB Kyler Murray returning from an ACL injury, their hard work could finally be rewarded, as evidenced by their recent 25-23 victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Murray performed well in his first game back, completing 59% of his passes for 249 yards and leading a game-winning drive in the final moments.
After C.J. Stroud led the Houston Texans to a thrilling 30-27 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, he and his team have become the center of attention in the league. Stroud has impressed with back-to-back games of throwing for over 350 yards. The buzz around the Texans has led oddsmakers to heavily favor them by nearly a touchdown in their upcoming game. However, this may be an overreaction, as the Texans were underdogs in their last two home games against the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Stroud’s impressive stats are largely due to Houston’s weak running game, which could be a problem for the Texans against Arizona’s improving defense. The Cardinals only allowed 254 yards to the Falcons last week, rank 10th in the NFL in sacks, and are third in tackles for loss. Their secondary is also performing well, ranking 11th against the pass this season. While the line has moved throughout the week, FanDuel’s +198 odds on an Arizona moneyline still seem like a good bet, especially if you can find odds at +180 or better.
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New York Jets (+265 via FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐
Last week, we bet against the Buffalo Bills in our NFL upset picks and were handsomely rewarded with a +320 return by choosing the Denver Broncos on Monday night. With the Bills still struggling with issues that led to an 0-6 against the spread skid, particularly their tendency to turn the ball over, it seems like a smart move to keep fading them. Josh Allen, who leads the league in interceptions, added two more against Denver and was responsible for one of the team’s two lost fumbles in the game. So why change course now?
Buffalo is showing signs of panic after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, despite him not being responsible for a critical penalty that cost them the game against Denver. Fans expressed frustration with some booing during Monday’s loss, indicating that home field advantage may not be as strong for the Bills if the game is close in the final moments.
Despite the struggles of Zach Wilson and the New York Jets offense, they have managed to stay competitive in almost every game. Their 16-12 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week marked their third defeat by four points or fewer this season. The Jets’ strong defense has also been a challenge for the Bills in recent matchups, with the Jets winning the season opener and covering five of the last eight games between the two teams. Despite the doubts, betting on the Jets moneyline may be the best option for value, so consider using our FanDuel promo code to maximize your potential winnings.
Minnesota Vikings (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Denver Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the Denver Broncos did secure a +320 victory in last week’s NFL upset picks column, much of the credit goes to Buffalo’s errors. Despite winning the turnover battle 4-1, the Broncos required a second chance on a last-second field goal to claim a 24-22 win. Although Denver’s defense improved after a rough start to the season, the offense’s performance is worrying, managing only 300 total yards against a depleted Buffalo defense on Monday.
The Minnesota Vikings have been on a hot streak lately, winning five straight and six of seven games. Despite missing key players like Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, the team has managed to climb into the NFC Wild Card conversation. Their defense has been solid, allowing fewer than 20 points in five of the last seven games. Backup QB Joshua Dobbs has stepped up, leading the team to score 58 points in the past two weeks. There is hope that Justin Jefferson could make a return for their upcoming game at Mile High. Overall, the Vikings’ recent success appears to be more sustainable.
In 8 of its last 10 games as a home favorite, Denver has failed to cover the spread. Despite this trend, I believe the Broncos may not be the best choice as the favorite in this matchup. I recommend taking the Vikings for a slight upset at even odds or better.
NFL upset predictions announced on 11/15/2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
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