NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 6: Patriots Get Right in Sin City

Despite the New England Patriots having a disappointing start to the season, we still consider them one of our top NFL upset picks for Week 6. Our selections are made based on the NFL odds provided by our top sports betting apps.
Despite holding a disappointing 1-4 record, the New England Patriots have struggled in their past two games, being outscored 72-3. Surprisingly, they are only a short, three-point road underdog against the 2-3 Las Vegas Raiders.
Could oddsmakers be creating a trap, or is there more to this matchup than initially appears?
To see our predictions for every NFL game in Week 6, take a look at our analysis.
We have selected the top NFL upset picks for Week 6 to accompany our best NFL bets. These picks are based on odds from our recommended NFL betting sites and are rated on a confidence scale from 1 to 5 stars.
NFL upset picks: Week 6
- Washington Commanders (+124 via DraftKings) vs. Atlanta Falcons ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- New England Patriots (+140 via Caesars) vs. Las Vegas Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145 via BetMGM) vs. Detroit Lions ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Commanders ML vs. Falcons (+124 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The betting market is not enthusiastic about the Commanders team, which has lost three games in a row after starting 2-0. This includes a disappointing 40-20 loss to the previously winless Bears in their last game on Thursday Night Football. However, this presents an opportunity to support Washington as a road underdog at a favorable price. Just two weeks ago, they took the defending NFC champion Eagles into overtime in a similar situation.
The Commanders have proven they can gain yardage through the air with quarterback Sam Howell, who has thrown for over 290 yards in three of his last four games. However, Washington’s biggest offensive advantage this week may come from their strong running game, which ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per carry. They should be able to capitalize on this against the struggling Falcons, who have had trouble putting points on the board.
In their last three games, Atlanta has only managed to score 34 points and has not exceeded 25 points in any single game this season. The Falcons have won two of their three games by a total of three points, indicating that this game is likely to remain undecided until the very end.
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Patriots ML vs. Raiders (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Patriots are in worse shape than the Commanders at the moment, having suffered back-to-back losses by a total of 72-3. Despite being benched in both games, Mac Jones is slated to start for New England against the Raiders.
Nevertheless, Jones may have a chance to achieve success against the Raiders, as their defense is not as strong as the Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, and Saints, all of whom New England has faced during their 1-4 straight-up and ATS start.
Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in any game this season, which suggests that the Patriots are unlikely to face a significant deficit this week. This allows them to focus on the running game and keep the Raiders’ defense on their toes.
The Raiders are facing a quick turnaround after their close victory against Green Bay on Monday, and their recent track record as favorites is not favorable with a 6-16 ATS record in their last 22 games. Additionally, they have only won 2 out of their last 8 games after a victory.
Buccaneers ML vs. Lions (+145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Tampa Bay has emerged as a pleasant surprise in the league, holding a 3-1 record and leading the NFC South. Baker Mayfield is showing improvement by throwing seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. The defense has been solid, allowing 17 points or less in three of four games and used the bye week to prepare for the Lions.
During their recent three-game winning streak, Detroit has maintained an average of 32 points per game. However, their offensive performance tends to decline on grass surfaces during away games, with the Lions scoring 23 points or less in four of their last five matches. Additionally, Tampa Bay possesses a strong pass rush that has historically posed challenges for Jared Goff.
The Bucs have had a strong record in 2020 with 6 wins out of 8 games when playing with more than eight days rest, and 6 wins out of 6 games at home. It wouldn’t be surprising to see those numbers improve this week against Detroit.
NFL surprise selections announced on 10/11/2023 at 10:01 p.m. Eastern Time.
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