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Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets celebrates after a long gain, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive BetMGM bonus code.
Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets celebrates after a long gain during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings. Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images via AFP.

Shifting our attention to a top NFL upset pick for Week 9 with favorable NFL odds, we turn to the upcoming Monday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Of the 14 games in Week 9 of the NFL, only two have point spreads greater than seven points, while eight games on our top sports betting apps have spreads of three points or less. However, we have found three underdogs that could potentially bring in profitable returns for this week’s games.

Take a look at our NFL Week 9 predictions and top bets, including our Week 9 NFL props to go along with our favorite upset picks for the week. Confidence levels are rated on a 1 to 5-star scale and odds are provided by our preferred NFL betting sites.

NFL upset picks: Week 9

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NFL upset predictions

Commanders ML vs. Patriots (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Just a week after surprising the Buffalo Bills with a 29-25 victory as 8.5-point underdogs, the New England Patriots returned to their losing streak with a disappointing 31-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Mac Jones threw his eighth interception of the season and failed to throw for over 200 yards for the fourth time in his last five games as the Patriots fell to 2-10 against the spread in their last twelve games.

Supporting the Washington Commanders has become more challenging following the trades of key pass-rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Despite a string of losses, with four out of their last five games ending in defeat, the Commanders have displayed competitiveness in their matches, coming close to defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. Their ability to remain resilient in the midst of setbacks is a noteworthy aspect of their performance.

These days, playing at home doesn’t seem to give the Patriots much of an advantage as they have only covered one of their last seven games at Gillette Stadium. In a matchup between two struggling teams, the best option seems to be taking a chance on the visiting Commanders at a high moneyline price.

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Buccaneers ML vs. Texans (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite losing three consecutive games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are only half a game behind the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints for first place in the NFC South. This close race is motivating the Bucs to turn their season around. They have had extra time to work on their game after a close 24-18 loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, bringing their road record to 3-0 against the spread this season.

After a successful run of covering their previous four games, the Houston Texans were brought back to reality last week with a 15-13 loss to the previously winless Carolina Panthers. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud had a season-low 140 passing yards, marking his second consecutive game with less than 200 yards. The Texans’ offense has only scored 52 points in their last three games, and they are expected to have difficulty against a Tampa defense that has limited five of their seven opponents to 20 points or fewer.

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Jets ML vs. Chargers (+150 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite facing adversity, the New York Jets have shown resilience in staying in the hunt for the AFC playoffs after losing Aaron Rodgers in the opening drive of the season. Their recent 13-10 overtime win against the New York Giants marked their third consecutive victory, with a defense that ranks second in yards per play allowed and fifth against the pass in the NFL.

The team’s strong pass defense will be a valuable asset against Justin Herbert and the high-flying Los Angeles Chargers, who have depended heavily on their passing game to move the ball this season. Additionally, the potential cold and inclement weather of a November game in the northeast could further hinder the Chargers’ passing attack, as they may struggle to adjust to playing in these unfamiliar conditions.

The Jets’ ability to score enough points for an upset is a valid concern, especially after Zach Wilson’s subpar performance in the previous game against the Giants. Despite this, Wilson showed promise by leading the team to tie and win with field goals in that game, and he has only thrown one interception in his last five games. I predict that he will make enough plays to outperform the Chargers defense, which has allowed 31, 24, and 27 points in their three away games this season.

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NFL upset predictions were made on 11/01/2023 at 7:23 p.m. ET.

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