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NFL Wild Card Weekend Upset Predictions: Late NFC Games Present Chance for Underdogs

Lewis Ulmer

Updated as of January 14, 2024 at 4:09 PM EST • Read time: 3 minutes and 35 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams passes the ball
Quarterback Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams passes the ball during the first half of a game against the Seattle Seahawks at SoFi Stadium on November 19, 2023 in Inglewood, California. Photo By Sean M. Haffey via AFP

As is tradition, the NFL Wild Card Weekend is always full of surprises, and we are analyzing the top potential upsets based on the latest NFL odds.

Four out of six favored teams in the NFL Wild Card Weekend are expected to win by less than a touchdown in their playoff openers. Our top sports betting apps are highlighting two underdogs with good value to potentially win their wild-card games outright.

One underdog has already secured a surprising victory as the Houston Texans (+2.5) defeated the favored Cleveland Browns. However, the Miami Dolphins (+4.5) were not as lucky in their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. As we head into Sunday and Monday, there are more opportunities for potential upsets to occur.

The Philadelphia Eagles, despite facing challenges leading up to the playoffs, are currently facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. The Buccaneers have a reputation for performing well as underdogs, making this matchup even more intriguing. Additionally, injuries may affect the Eagles, as some key players are uncertain to participate in the game.

Conversely, the Detroit Lions will face their former quarterback, Matthew Stafford, as he returns in a game that holds a hint of discomfort for both him and Jared Goff, who was traded for him a few years back. The outcome of this game will probably depend on which quarterback can exploit the vulnerable defense of the opposing team.

Let’s delve into these two games and explore how the underdogs could potentially come out on top and secure a victory.

Here are our top NFL upset picks for Wild Card weekend to go along with all of our NFL predictions and best bets. Odds are from our recommended NFL betting sites and confidence levels are rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

NFL upset picks: Wild Card Weekend

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NFL upset predictions

Rams ML (+160 via DraftKings) vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐

Both quarterbacks are entering this game with a lot of emotions, but we shouldn’t let that influence our betting decisions. The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games, making them a strong consideration here based on recent trends.

The Rams have won seven out of their last eight games and are currently on a four-game winning streak. They have also won their last six games against NFC opponents. While the Lions have covered the spread in 21 of their last 27 games, many of these wins came when they were underdogs.

If you’re hesitant about betting on the underdog, you may want to consider taking the Over instead. The Lions have won six out of eight home games, including the last four at Ford Field. Both teams have strong offenses, with skilled players in the running back, wide receiver, and quarterback positions, some of whom have even played in the Super Bowl.

The total typically hovers around 51.5 at our top sportsbooks.

The absence of Sam LaPorta due to injury could potentially impact the outcome of the game. Questions have arisen as to why the Lions chose to play their starters in Week 18, a decision that may prove to be a misstep by head coach Dan Campbell.

If you’re searching for an underdog outright winner this weekend, look for the Super Bowl winning quarterback-coach duo with a strong supporting cast.

Check out our prediction for the Rams vs. Lions game and explore our player props for the Rams-Lions NFL matchup.

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Buccaneers ML (+135 via bet365) vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐

I may not be abandoning the Eagles like others are, but it’s hard to ignore the home underdog Buccaneers. They have won three consecutive games at home as underdogs.

Tampa Bay, led by Baker Mayfield, has defied expectations by winning the NFC South despite being predicted to finish last. Mayfield and head coach Todd Bowles have been underrated all season, with Mayfield a strong contender for Comeback Player of the Year and Bowles for Coach of the Year.

The Eagles have struggled in recent games, losing five out of six and failing to cover the spread each time. This could make them a good underdog pick. However, the Buccaneers have a poor track record of losing four consecutive games against NFC East teams as underdogs. It may be safer to go with a spread pick in this case.

The outcome of this matchup is likely to be determined by the performance of the running game, and the Eagles have not been able to replicate their success from 2023. Rachaad White will be key for the Buccaneers if they want to secure the victory.

White has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games where his team was the underdog and emerged victorious. He has also found the end zone in six out of seven games. White is now set to take on an Eagles defense that appears to be struggling.

We will delve deeper into our prediction for the Eagles vs. Buccaneers game and explore player props for the NFL matchup on Monday to wrap up Wild Card Weekend.

NFL upset picks were selected on Thursday at 12:19 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Lewis Ulmer
Lewis Ulmer has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.