NFL Wild Card Weekend Trends, Predictions: How to Bet QBs Making 1st Playoff Start

Four quarterbacks will be making their first career NFL playoff start during Wild Card Weekend. We will examine the trends and history of debut quarterbacks in the postseason, including the best NFL odds and results from first-time playoff starters in the last twenty years.

Most notably, the 2025-24 NFL season has been characterized by a plethora of new quarterbacks. A total of 66 different players took the field as starting quarterbacks this season, marking the second-highest number in a non-strike year in league history. Additionally, a record-breaking 10 rookie quarterbacks made their starting debuts throughout the season.

Over NFL Wild Card Weekend, four new starters are expected to make their first career playoff start: C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins), Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh Steelers), and Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers). This continues a trend of at least three first-time starters in the wild-card round for the ninth consecutive year.

In the past, playoff games have been a challenging test for new teams, especially the underdogs. This will be the case for all four quarterbacks playing this weekend. Recent outcomes indicate that this year’s group of quarterbacks may be at risk of an early elimination.

Before placing any bets on or against the first-time playoff starters in the upcoming NFL Wild Card Weekend, let’s analyze the trends and history of quarterbacks making their playoff debut by using our top NFL betting sites.

Curse of the NFL playoff debut

In January 19, 2002, Tom Brady faced the cold weather in New England to secure his first playoff victory in the memorable “Tuck Rule” game against the Oakland Raiders. Just two weeks later, he orchestrated a stunning upset in Super Bowl betting history to guide the Patriots to their inaugural championship.

In the past twenty years, there has been no quarterback able to replicate Brady’s achievement of winning the Lombardi Trophy in his first postseason as a starter. Since then, 77 quarterbacks have attempted to match that historic run, with nearly two-thirds failing in their first career start.

In the NFL, quarterbacks making their playoff debut since the postseason format changed in 2002 have struggled, going 27-50 in straight up wins. They have nearly as many double-digit losses (25) as outright wins. Against the spread, these first-time starters have a record of 30-46-1 (39.5% success rate), which drops to 22-38-1 ATS (36.7%) when excluding matchups between two quarterbacks making their playoff debut, as seen twice in last year’s wild-card round.

By the way, in the past two postseasons, playoff rookies have only won one out of six games against seasoned quarterbacks. Despite going 3-3 against the spread, with one victory by a narrow margin, the inexperienced quarterbacks lost by a total of 72 points and failed to cover the spread by 33 points. In four of those games, the newbies led their teams to scores of 17 points or less.

All six of the quarterbacks were playing as underdogs on the road, as are three out of the four quarterbacks making their playoff debuts this weekend. Historically, being a first-time starter in the playoffs as an underdog on the road has not been a favorable position in the last two decades.

Only seven out of 30 quarterbacks who made their first playoff start as a road underdog since the 2002-03 season have won outright. Of those 30 starters, 12 (40%) managed to cover the spread. The odds are even worse for those who were underdogs by a touchdown or more, like Love and Rudolph this weekend, as they went 1-12 straight up with a 5-8 ATS record (38.5%), losing by an average of 12 points per game.

Stroud is the only rookie quarterback playing as a home underdog this week in the postseason. In the past, rookie quarterbacks have had mixed success, with a record of 7-10 straight up and 7-9-1 against the spread. However, when rookies are underdogs, they have struggled, going 2-8 straight up and 3-6-1 against the spread since 2002, with a scoring differential of minus-80.

Stroud (22), Tagovailoa (25), and Love (25) will become part of the group of almost 50 quarterbacks aged 25 or under who have made their playoff debut since the 2002 season. Excluding games against other first-time postseason starters, these quarterbacks had a 13-24-1 ATS record (35.1%), with more double-digit losses (13) than outright wins (11) in 38 attempts.

Rudolph, at 28 years old, is the most experienced player in this year’s group despite having only 13 regular-season starts under his belt. However, history shows that age does not always equate to success in the playoffs for quarterbacks. Quarterbacks making their playoff debut at 28 or older have a record of 6-9 straight up and against the spread. Additionally, underdogs in this situation are 1-8 straight up and 3-6 against the spread, with five losses by 18 points or more.

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Beware of new QBs in player props market

It is evident that teams have struggled in the postseason when starting a quarterback for the first time. However, how have these first-time starters performed individually in their playoff debuts?

In one word: poorly. Let’s examine some fundamental box-score statistics for the 77 quarterbacks who have had their first career playoff start since the 2002-03 season.

It is crucial to consider these numbers within the context of the NFL’s shift towards a pass-oriented game in recent years. However, even when adjusting for this trend, the disappointing performances of quarterbacks in their first playoff appearances cannot be fully explained.

Out of the 77 passers, 34 of them threw for less than 200 yards in their first playoff game. This trend is not limited to old-school football, as over half of these instances have occurred since 2010. Recent poor performances include Kyler Murray with 137 yards, Jimmy Garoppolo with 131 yards, Ryan Tannehill with 72 yards, and Lamar Jackson with 194 yards in the last five years.

Out of the 77 passers, 49 completed less than 60% of their attempts in their first postseason game, and 50 had a passer rating below 88.9, the league average in 2025. To level the playing field with the past, 44 of those quarterbacks had a passer rating below 80.4, the average back in 2002.

It is not surprising that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with turnovers in their first playoff appearance. Out of 77 quarterbacks who have made their playoff debut, 48 have thrown at least one interception. In the past two postseasons, 12 first-time playoff starters have collectively thrown 15 interceptions, with eight throwing at least one pick and five throwing multiple interceptions.

Over the past 20 years, road underdogs have struggled, averaging 209 passing yards with a 57.1% completion rate and a total of 31 touchdowns to 35 interceptions in 30 games. Surprisingly, more quarterbacks threw multiple interceptions (10) than zero interceptions (seven) in those games, and more ended with zero touchdowns (10) than multiple touchdowns (nine).

Once more, the statistics cannot be attributed to the early 2000s. In the past ten years, quarterbacks making their initial playoff start as underdogs on the road have averaged only 202.1 yards per game with an equal number of touchdowns (20) and interceptions (20). Additionally, only two of them achieved a passer rating above 100.

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Should you fade QBs making their 1st NFL playoff start?

While these trends may be captivating, it is important to remember that they are just that: trends. Each situation in the NFL is unique, and every quarterback has the opportunity to create their own story.

Stroud, only a year out of college, became the youngest player to ever lead the league in TD-INT ratio (23:5) and was a top contender for NFL MVP late in the season. Tagovailoa, who was once the frontrunner for the award, also remained a favorite going into Week 17 but ultimately lost momentum towards the end of the season.

Although Love has never started a playoff game, the Packers have made the postseason in both of his first two seasons as a backup. Rudolph has a similar story, as the Steelers reached the wild-card round for the first time since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season.

However, despite this, oddsmakers from our top sports betting sites are not very confident in any of those four quarterbacks this weekend. They are all considered underdogs in their first postseason start.

In the past seven seasons, there has been at least one quarterback who won their playoff debut, resulting in a total of 13 wins. Five of those victories were against other first-time starters, but this trend will not continue in the upcoming postseason.

Instead, these four quarterbacks will try to achieve another “first” in a season that has been full of them, as they go up against a combination of past Super Bowl champions and consistent MVP contenders.

If they are able to overcome the historical trends that have been working against them this weekend, perhaps they will also have a run similar to Brady’s.

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