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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Predictions & Odds: Today’s Game 7 NHL Playoffs Expert Picks

Gonzales Oona

Updated on May 4, 2024 at 5:53 PM EDT • Read time: 3 minutes and 49 seconds. Links to Twitter and Google News.

Joseph Woll and William Nylander celebrate a win against the Boston Bruins in Game 6 as we offer our best Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game 7 predictions.
Joseph Woll and William Nylander celebrate a win against the Boston Bruins in Game 6 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on May 02, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images/AFP via AFP

For the fourth consecutive series, Boston will face off against Toronto in Game 7 on Saturday. Our expert predictions for the Maple Leafs-Bruins matchup will be based on the best NHL odds for what is sure to be a tense and exciting game.

Once more, the Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10) have overcome a 3-1 series deficit to push the Boston Bruins (47-20-15) to a Game 7. Will this time be different for the Leafs?

The series has adhered to the 2018 script and the final chapter of this year’s showdown will occur on Saturday at TD Garden in Boston, with puck drop scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Even though their two-game lead has disappeared quickly, like water on a scorching hot frying pan, the Bruins are widely favored to win Game 7, as indicated by our top sports betting apps.

Despite the increase following the Game 6 loss, Boston’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup are still higher than Toronto’s as they face a crucial game on Saturday.

Here are our top predictions and NHL pick for the Maple Leafs vs. Bruins game, in addition to our player props. The odds are from our recommended NHL betting sites, and our confidence level is rated on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Over/Under prediction for Saturday

Under 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you enjoy going beneath, similar to limbo enthusiasts everywhere, you will love this series.

Four out of the six recent games have resulted in Under because of exceptional goaltending, weak offensive performances, players sacrificing themselves to block shots, and the absence of Auston Matthews.

If the Bruins hadn’t scored an empty-net goal in Games 1 and 3, we would have seen six straight Unders. This aligns with the Maple Leafs’ playoff trend of scoring more than two goals only once in their last 13 games, which was a three-goal outburst in Game 2.

Matthews’ absence cannot be held responsible for their offensive struggles. Despite being the catalyst for breaking the two-goal barrier in Game 2, Matthews played in all previous games, including a stretch of eight games without scoring three goals. In nine of their last 13 playoff games, the Maple Leafs have hit the Under, which would increase to 12 out of 13 if empty-net goals are excluded.

The Maple Leafs have the 5-on-5 advantage

The Bruins struggle to score goals, especially with Joseph Woll playing so well. Six out of the 14 goals they have scored in the series have been on the power play.

Sheldon Keefe’s likely implementation of corporal punishment has proven effective in reducing penalties among the Maple Leafs, with the team only taking one minor in each of their last two games. This has greatly minimized the Bruins’ offensive opportunities. Toronto has outscored Boston 9-7 in five-on-five play since Game 2, showcasing the team’s improved discipline.

With so much at stake, a similar situation is likely to occur in Boston this Saturday. Betway is offering odds of -120 for a total of five goals or fewer, which would result in a payout of $8.33 for every $10 bet.

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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins moneyline prediction for Saturday

Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐

I initially chose the Bruins to win Game 6 in my Eastern Conference betting preview, despite predicting that the series would go the distance. However, I changed my pick based on Swayman’s impressive performance against the Maple Leafs. Unfortunately, Woll also played exceptionally well, proving me wrong. In hindsight, I should have trusted my instincts. Lesson learned.

Game 7s in hockey are like rolling the dice, and the Bruins have traditionally been successful in these high-stakes games. They have emerged victorious in winner-takes-all matchups in 2013, 2018, and 2019. However, their luck ran out last season when they suffered a heartbreaking 4-3 overtime loss to the Florida Panthers in Game 7 of the first round. This defeat marked the third consecutive Game 7 loss for the Bruins, leaving them with a bitter feeling of disappointment.

Boston has a 15-15 record in Game 7s, with a 14-10 record on home ice. Toronto, on the other hand, has a 12-14 overall record, including a troubling 5-11 record in away games. Saturday’s matchup presents a classic case of something needing to give.

In the playoffs, momentum is fleeting. The top teams navigate through the highs and lows with the grace of skilled surfers, demonstrating resilience in tough times and confidence akin to Travis Kelce at their peak.

The Maple Leafs seem to have a newfound energy and confidence on the ice. Despite having to adopt a more defensive style of play, which they were not originally comfortable with, Keefe’s team has fully embraced their new identity and is wearing down the Bruins with relentless pressure.

Top odds: +115 at Betway

The Maple Leafs’ impressive record without Matthews

The Maple Leafs have a record of 2-0 in the series and 26-12 without Matthews since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. While the team will be eager for Matthews to return, they have shown they can still succeed even without him.

In conclusion, the Bruins’ odds of -150 are too low given their recent performance. Betway is offering +115 odds for the Maple Leafs to win, who have already won two out of three games in Boston. A $10 bet on the Maple Leafs would yield a profit of $11.50 with an implied probability of 46.51%.

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 info & odds

  • When: Saturday, May 4
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
  • How to watch: ESPN, ABC, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Bruins (-150 via Betway)

Predictions for the Bruins-Maple Leafs game were made at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

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Written By:
Gonzales Oona
Gonzales Oona has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn’t a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor’s degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete’s psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team’s dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.