Stanley Cup Playoffs Upset Picks: Series Underdogs to Back in Round 1
The initial stage of the NHL postseason is consistently filled with excitement, drama, intense emotions, and especially unexpected upsets. Using the Stanley Cup odds as a guide, we have identified the top favorites at risk of being upset and the underdog picks we believe will pull off surprises in the first round of the NHL playoffs.
Just like babies, NHL sports bettors often struggle to control their emotions during the playoffs.
Upsets are a common occurrence in the NHL playoffs, as our Stanley Cup betting guide predicts that at least two favorites will typically be eliminated in the first round.
Let’s jump right in, so no one gets too upset before discussing the most likely upsets. The probability of an upset is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 stars, with five stars indicating a high chance of the favorite being eliminated early.
Stanley Cup Playoffs upset predictions: Round 1
- Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks (+130 via DraftKings)
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche (+115 via FanDuel)
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins (+105 via bet365)
Predators (WC1) vs. Canucks (2)
The chart below shows the probability of winning a series using our odds converter. Before discussing my own thoughts on the chances of a favorite losing, here is the assessment from our top sports betting sites.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predators odds | +130 | +125 | +125 | +125 |
| Predators winning probability | 43.48% | 44.44% | 44.44% | 44.44% |
Our probability of a Predators’ upset: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Nashville Predators are sounding the upset alarm as they enter their first-round series against the No. 2 Vancouver Canucks as strong underdogs. It appeared as though the Predators were in a slumber for the first four months of the season, sharing the 10th-worst points percentage (.519) with three other teams (Minnesota Wild, Washington Capitals, Seattle Kraken) through the first 55 games.
Valentine’s Day passed and the Predators were awakened from their long winter slumber. Since February 16, the Predators have had the best record in the NHL (20-5-3). During this impressive stretch, they won 18 out of 20 games, with the two losses coming in overtime. However, in their last 10 games, they have lost six, which seems to indicate a cooling off at a crucial time.
The Canucks’ downward trend began before Thatcher Demko’s absence, with Vancouver going 5-5-1 from February 17 to March 9 when Demko was injured. Despite his return, the team has continued to slide in the opposite direction since mid-February.
Demko’s injury clearly had a negative impact, with the Canucks only winning eight out of 14 games without their top goaltender. His return to the lineup against the Calgary Flames on April 16 was a welcome sight for fans. However, there is uncertainty about whether he can regain his stellar form that earned him Vezina Trophy consideration after only playing two games in the past six weeks.
Discussing the idea of putting him in a high-pressure situation like that is quite daunting, especially considering he has only played in four playoff games in his career.
Top choice: Predators to win the series at +130 odds through DraftKings.
Terms and conditions apply.
Avalanche (C3) vs. Jets (C2)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets odds | +115 | +115 | +115 | +100 | +110 |
| Jets winning probability | 46.51% | 46.51% | 46.51% | 50% | 47.62% |
Our probability of a Jets’ upset: ⭐⭐⭐
If the Jets manage to achieve this upset, they should consider rebranding themselves as the Rockets. After a challenging six-game losing streak where everything seemed to go wrong, Winnipeg has now turned things around and soared to impressive heights, winning seven consecutive games. Their dominating 7-0 victory over the Avalanche on April 13 is a testament to their newfound success.
As per our top sports betting apps, the Avalanche are considered one of the top five contenders to win the Stanley Cup, despite struggling recently with a rough patch that has affected their record and confidence.
The Avs have dropped seven of their last 10 games, losing their grip on home-ice advantage, which could be a critical setback. Colorado is the top-ranked NHL team at home but only 12th on the road. Despite being a favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy, Nathan MacKinnon has scored nearly a point per game more at home than on the road. While MacKinnon is expected to perform well against the Jets, he may not be as dominant at Canada Life Centre.
In the event of an engine failure on one of the Jets’ planes, they can count on Connor Hellebuyck, the likely Vezina Trophy recipient, to come to the rescue. Meanwhile, the Avalanche have Alexandar Georgiev, who has a record of 3-5 in the playoffs. Despite a rollercoaster season in his second year as a starter, the 28-year-old goalie has shown resilience. Although some may have doubts, Avalanche fans believe that another average goaltender, Darcy Kuemper, could lead them to victory in the upcoming season.
However, the Jets remain a strong underdog choice, especially given their perfect 3-0 record against the Avs this season.
Top choice: Jets favored to win series at +115 odds with FanDuel.
Only new customers are eligible for this offer. To qualify, you must deposit a minimum of $5 and place your first bet of $5 or more. If your bet wins within 72 hours, you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets.
Maple Leafs (A3) vs. Bruins (A2)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs odds | +105 | +100 | +100 | +100 | +105 |
| Maple Leafs winning probability | 48.78% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 48.78% |
Our probability of a Maple Leafs’ upset: ⭐⭐⭐
Our top sports betting sites are not surprised by the possibility of a Maple Leafs victory. In fact, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all give Toronto a 50% chance of winning. Considering the historical context, Maple Leafs fans would eagerly welcome a 50% chance of finally defeating the Bruins in the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs are hoping that the fourth time will be the charm as they face the Bruins in the first round. In the past 11 years, they have experienced soul-crushing disappointments in three previous first-round series against the Bruins, with two of those losses occurring under the current management.
This time will be different, won’t it? The Maple Leafs have held their own statistically in Eastern Conference matchups and predictions. Although still formidable, the Bruins are not as intimidating as they used to be.
However, there is no doubt that the Bruins will be laser-focused on seeking revenge for last season’s surprising first-round defeat to the Panthers.
Yet, if this talented group of players, including Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly, who are all at the peak of their careers, fail to defeat the Bruins in their third attempt, all optimism in Toronto will vanish like water absorbed into the ground after a heavy rainstorm.
Top choice: Bet on the Maple Leafs to win the series with odds of +105 from bet365.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
2025 Stanley Cup playoffs betting previews: Round 1
Prepare for the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs with our first-round preview content collection.
- Stanley Cup betting guide
- Stanley Cup playoffs predictions
- NHL playoff upsets
- Eastern Conference betting preview
- Western Conference betting preview
How to bet on NHL playoffs upsets
Placing bets on NHL playoff upsets can be an exciting experience, especially when you are cheering for the team that is considered the underdog. A useful tactic is to focus on teams with solid goaltending and strong defensive skills, as these are often crucial elements in creating surprising results. Teams with goaltenders who are on a hot streak and capable of making game-changing saves, paired with a defense that can effectively neutralize high-scoring opponents, are likely to be strong contenders for causing upsets during the playoffs.
It is important to take into account the momentum and confidence of teams as they enter the playoffs. A lower-seeded team that has momentum from a late-season surge or a strong finish may have a mental advantage over a higher-seeded team that has been struggling or dealing with injuries. These teams can often use their momentum to secure unexpected victories, particularly in the early stages of the playoffs where outcomes are unpredictable.
To increase your chances of successfully betting on NHL playoff upsets, it is important to thoroughly research beyond the regular-season standings. Take into account factors such as recent performance, head-to-head records, injuries, and playoff history. By carefully analyzing these elements and pinpointing teams with the capability to pull off surprises, you can place knowledgeable bets that elevate the excitement of the playoff season.
How to read NHL odds
When betting on NHL games, underdog odds show the probability of a team winning even though they are not favored. These odds are presented as positive numbers, showing the potential profit from a winning bet. For instance, if a team has odds of +200, betting $10 on them and winning would result in a $20 profit in addition to getting back the original $10 bet.
Imagine the Tampa Bay Lightning are up against the Florida Panthers in a playoff series, with the Lightning being the underdogs at odds of +150. If you wager $10 on the Lightning and they come out victorious in the series, you would make a profit of $15 on top of getting your initial $10 bet returned to you.
The odds for underdogs in NHL games can fluctuate based on a variety of factors such as team performance, injuries, and recent form. It is important to keep track of these factors when placing bets on NHL underdogs.
Here are our best NHL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21 and older. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER)* Bonuses cannot be used in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Underscoreg Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
